What's going on with Chik?

[eladdie]

Okay,

It's been several weeks since infections of chik were reported in Mainland Europe.

I may have missed it, but I have not seen any exponential rise in chik cases there.


There are three possible conclusions one can draw from this.

1. Chik needs a mosquito vector, and therefore cannot go h2h.
2. All chik cases in europe were dosed with tamiflu and were cured, stopping the infection.
3. It has gone h2h and we are operating under massive conspiracy.

I believe it is 1.


What is your opinion?

[DB]

Re: What's going on with Chik?

Eladdie,

France has 160 cases now. Last week it was 30.

In the first week in March I said we should wait until the last week of March, which is next week.

It takes a couple of weeks before the numbers reach into the 100's and a couple more weeks after that for numbers to reach into the 1000's and the a couple more weeks for numbers to reach in the tens of thousands and so on.

You must have paitence young grasshopper.

[eladdie]

Re: What's going on with Chik?

Eladdie,

France has 160 cases now. Last week it was 30.

In the first week in March I said we should wait until the last week of March, which is next week.

It takes a couple of weeks before the numbers reach into the 100's and a couple more weeks after that for numbers to reach into the 1000's and the a couple more weeks for numbers to reach in the tens of thousands and so on.

You must have paitence young grasshopper.

Source/link for France numbers?

[DB]

Re: What's going on with Chik?

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2607

[eladdie]

Re: What's going on with Chik?

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2607

Okay,

i read the thread.

160 cases for france is not out of line, considering that on the average 747 you can easily fit 300 - 450 tourists. How many flight into la reunion occured every day during Jan and Feb? Even if it were just 1 per day, that would imply 300 x 60 for two months, or 18000 turists. With the infection rates we see on the island, a .1% for turists would not be out of line.

I would agree that tourism has been wiped out there, so it will be interesting to see if the french numbers rise or remain the same.



All of the aflicted european countries have populations that go to places like Reunion for winter holidays, so I am still not convinced.

[DB]

Re: What's going on with Chik?

Eladdie,

If you do not believe that this is spreading human to human by now then nothing will suffice.

The events on La Reunion the surrounding islands are undeniable. Clearly human to human transmission of a virus. Large family clusters and in some instances 80-90% of the population infected. That has never happened and never will happen in 3 months due to a mosquito born disease.

Sorry, those are just the facts.

So you must choose, is what is happening on La Reunion human to human or not. That is the only question you need to answer, once you can decide on that then the situation in Europe is a no brainer.

If you believe it is not human to human then you will see something similar to west nile or malaria.

If you believe it is human to human then you will see something similar to what is happening in the South Indian Ocean and India (they have over 100,000 cases right now).


The choice is one that you have to make.

I have made mine which is why I can sit back and basically "call my shot".

[eladdie]

Re: What's going on with Chik?

Eladdie,

If you do not believe that this is spreading human to human by now then nothing will suffice.

The events on La Reunion the surrounding islands are undeniable. Clearly human to human transmission of a virus. Large family clusters and in some instances 80-90% of the population infected. That has never happened and never will happen in 3 months due to a mosquito born disease.

Sorry, those are just the facts.

So you must choose, is what is happening on La Reunion human to human or not. That is the only question you need to answer, once you can decide on that then the situation in Europe is a no brainer.

If you believe it is not human to human then you will see something similar to west nile or malaria.

If you believe it is human to human then you will see something similar to what is happening in the South Indian Ocean and India (they have over 100,000 cases right now).


The choice is one that you have to make.

I have made mine which is why I can sit back and basically "call my shot".

I concur that it is exponential in the Indian Ocean Basin. And that it is spreading there at an alarming pace.

I would even hypothesize that Birds could be vectors as well, since mosquitos are an equal opportunity biter.

I am just having trouble with the lack obvious clusters by the tourists.

That being said, If it is an h5n1 variant, i am pleased to see that it doesn't contain the the Indonesian fatality rate, as we are seeing deaths that barely approach .1% as well.



And as a side thought,

Maybe chikungunya isn't swahili for "that which bends up", but is as, we saw in the last news report, chicken gunya or chicken gunia, which everyone knows, gunia, or gunya is an African term for "fever".

Chicken Fever. Makes more sense than "that which bends up".

[DB]

Re: What's going on with Chik?

Eladdie,

Sorry to be the voice of doom and gloom again.

Don't be so sure that the death rate is not MUCH higher than is being reported.

See the second post.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2379

[sharon sanders]

Re: What's going on with Chik?

Clearly, this disease is something new. Chikungunya does not kill. Chikungunya is rarely hemorrhagic. The amount of mosquitos that would have to survive to adulthood, and effectively bite these hundreds of thousands of persons is a mind bender. Think of the numbers. If 200K+ humans are infected, how many got sick with little or mild illness? Maybe another 70K? That might be 270K effective mosquito bites.

So then, how many mosquitos try to bite but get killed in the process? Maybe 540K mosquitos? So then, how many mosquitos mature to bite? Maybe 1,080,000? How many larve mature to adulthood? 1 in 5? I don't know. How many mosquito eggs make it to larve?

This picture is clear. And there has been an aggressive campaign to kill all mosquitos for at least 120 days in La Reunion. There should not be a mosquito alive there. Anywhere.

The conclusion has to be some kind of human to human contagious disease that is not a traditional chikungunya. So what is it?

Where are the sequences? Uh? Where?

[Mellie]

Re: What's going on with Chik?

I grew up in New Orleans when it was still largely swamp. We had screens on windows and doors. We had an attic fan. My family opted not to have air conditioning, because my parents were certain we'd become a bunch of kids who always stayed inside, like many of our peers. Instead we hiked and swam and rode horses all day when not at school.

During the late 50s 60s 70s 80s there was an ongoing aggressive campaign to kill mosquitoes with the harshest of chemicals, early on, including DDT. The "fogger machine" came around through the neighborhood morning, noon and night, spewing out its poison quite aggressively.

My dad tackled our bedrooms every night with his aerosol mosquito-killing spray. Even so, I can remember being awakened by the buzzing mosquitoes.

I lived there for 17 growing-up years minus the year spent in Holland and the several years in Texas which were mostly mosquito-free. I remember no other routine in New Orleans quite so well as that one.

We live in insulated environments in this country. We don't know the 3rd world, at least not many do... Many countries still have conditions similar to New Orleans with its mosquitoes.

Chik would have had us all infected had there been an outbreak there in those days.

With all due respect to others who passionately believe otherwise, my opinion is that the jury is still out on whether Chik is anything other than mosquito borne... at this point.