EGYPT - Jan 2 - Jan 4, 2008

[HenryN]

Originally Posted by Vibrant62

Please would you elaborate? Also I note that it says 'the death of his family avian'. Perhaps other family members died?

I think there was only one death. I think the translation simply said he didn't die from avian influenza (but it is unclear if that was based on his test or tests of the birds.

I think it is useful to look at cases from a risk / reward basis. If the birds tested negative and it is been several days since the teacher died, there is little risk in declaring him negative. However there is a major reward, since a positive would have tipped the scales well into the panic mode.

[AlaskaDenise]

Originally Posted by niman

Commentary at

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01...t_Poultry.html

Commentary

H5N1 Spread on Farms and Backyard Holdings in Egypt

Recombinomics Commentary 12:24
January 2, 2008

more prevalent among birds in poultry farms rather than birds bread domestically. The report, complied by the Public Authority for Veterinary Services, said 25 new outbreaks were detected in Sharkia, Gharbia, Qalyubia, Menoufia, Dakahlia, Cairo, Qena, Beni Suef and Giza.

The report concluded that 90% of the poultry farms fell behind considerably in a number of biological safety benchmarks, which threatens to make it easier for the disease to spread.

The above translation describe some of H5N1 outbreaks reported in recent days in Egypt. The comments confirm earlier reports of H5N1 in backyard holdings and commercial poultry (see satellite map). However, the above comments indicate the infections are more prevalent on the commercial farms, where vaccinations would be expected to be more complete.

Recent H5N1 outbreaks in Europe and Saudi Arabia raised the possibility of increased infections in Egypt, but the vaccination program was implemented to blunt the spread.

The explosion of poultry H5N1 cases provides some rationale for the high number of confirmed and suspect cases, but the cases reported to date are not farm workers, raising the possibility that the H5N1 in Egypt is more efficiently transmitted to humans. Although there have been no confirmed familial clusters this season, there are suspect clusters in Menoufia, Port Said, and Sharquia.

Updated data on the suspect cases and release of sequences fro the confirmed cases, would be useful.


.

[gjs47]

The teacher represents a tipping point.

Would you please elaborate on 'tipping point?'
Thank you so much to all of you for all you do.

[Commonground]

Originally Posted by gjs47

The teacher represents a tipping point.

Would you please elaborate on 'tipping point?'
Thank you so much to all of you for all you do.

Please see Post #31 for Dr. Nimans explanation.

[HenryN]

Originally Posted by gjs47

The teacher represents a tipping point.

Would you please elaborate on 'tipping point?'
Thank you so much to all of you for all you do.

Here is a quick rundown. Many agencies spend more time on controling information than controling H5N1. The tipping point refers to panic. One measure is ProMed commentaries, which usually dismiss H5N1. They have begun to show concern over Saudi Arabia and Egypt. For Egypt, they began to worry with the 3rd death (and were hoping the clustering was a statistical abberation).

The teacher died Saturday, so H5N1 confirmation would make 5 fatalities within a week. Moreover, a teacher with a backyard holding in Cairo matchjes a lot of people in Cairo, so the death of a 43 year old teacher alone would set off alarm bells.

Without the teacher, there is still a chance that the fifth case will recover, as will some of the suspect cases. A few recoveries will even out the scales, instead of almost all dying in short order.

Risk / reward ratio is heavily slanted toward a negative. Negatives are VERY easy to generate and getting a positive frequently requires a few tries. Those who would like a negative need to only try once (and use the chicken data to confirm a negative).

[Gnosis]

Negatives are VERY easy to generate

They have always assuaged fear and allowed the "authorities" and Govcorp to poo-poo the true growth and spread of H5N1.

The results would be different with proper testing and collection protocol adherence.

Until then I guess I should feel good about the wind blown up my skirt.

[HenryN]

Tighten procedures to besiege bird flu

أكد السيد أمين أباظة وزير الزراعة تشديد الإجراءات الوقائية لاحتواء مرض إنفلونزا الطيور‏,‏ وإحكام الرقابة علي أسواق بيع الدواجن‏,‏ ومضاعفة حجم اللقاحات التي تم تجهيزها للمرحلة الثانية التي بدأت‏15‏ ديسمبر الماضي‏,‏ وتستمر حتي منتصف مارس المقبل‏.‏ Mr. Amin Abaza, and Minister of Agriculture tighten preventive measures to contain bird flu, and tighten controls on the sale of poultry markets, and doubling the volume of vaccine that have been processed for the second phase, which began last December 15, and will continue until mid-March.

http://translate.google.com/translat...G%26as_qdr%3Dd

[gsgs]

can we maintain a list here with counts for:

Cases Discussed
Died, no test results
Died, tested positive
Other tested positive
Symptoms, tests pending
Tested negative
Totals

they had this last year at fluwikie, but it seems
that it's discontinued now.
It would be interesting to compare this with last year.
Laidback Al posted a graph some days ago, but I don't know,
where she/he got the data from.
The last one, that I could find was from May 10th 2007:

Updated Summary Table
Egypt Summary - Updated as of 04/10/07 2006 2007
Cases Discussed Jan - Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Total
Died, no test results 0 1 0 0 0 1
Died, tested positive 10 1 2 0 1 4
Other tested positive 8 0 2 9 1 12
Symptoms, tests pending 8 80 68 84 15 247
Tested negative 12 16 17 2 0 35
Totals 38 98 89 95 17 299

[Theresa42]

Originally Posted by gsgs

can we maintain a list here with counts for:

Cases Discussed
Died, no test results
Died, tested positive
Other tested positive
Symptoms, tests pending
Tested negative
Totals

they had this last year at fluwikie, but it seems
that it's discontinued now.
It would be interesting to compare this with last year.
Laidback Al posted a graph some days ago, but I don't know,
where she/he got the data from.
The last one, that I could find was from May 10th 2007:

Updated Summary Table
Egypt Summary - Updated as of 04/10/07 2006 2007
Cases Discussed Jan - Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Total
Died, no test results 0 1 0 0 0 1
Died, tested positive 10 1 2 0 1 4
Other tested positive 8 0 2 9 1 12
Symptoms, tests pending 8 80 68 84 15 247
Tested negative 12 16 17 2 0 35
Totals 38 98 89 95 17 299

Are you volunteering for the job, gsgs? I've compiled a list of confirmed & suspected cases which is in this thread (it needs to be updated at the moment) -- we could sure use someone to put together a spreadsheet! Unfortunately, I haven't had the time.

[Theresa42]

Originally Posted by Theresa42

Schoolteacher -- or his birds -- tested negative. The headline reads that "influenza did not kill teacher Cairo" but the negative report comes from the Directorate of Veterinary Medicine, not the Ministry of Health. ??

Google-translated from Arabic:

The seizure and execution 3778 chickens in Giza, influenza did not kill teacher Cairo

2/1/2008

Security forces chased the car loaded Giza birds, and seized 3778 chickens alive in the 3 car seizures were executed by veterinary inside Cemetery healthy -- comes in the framework of the follow-up to the spread of avian influenza virus in Cairo confirmed the Directorate of Veterinary Medicine negative sample for teacher suspected in the death of his family Avian.

Major General Mohsen mandated operations assistant minister for security officers Giza Giza to control the outlets for the transfer of live birds, and prevent the unauthorized transfer to curb the spread of the disease, were seized 1000 chickens Balorac, the commander of the car he brought from Dakahlia and seized 1370 chickens loaded in trucks at six been seized 700 chickens to the seller was seized 8 chickens with the seller, and liberated the records of the facts of seizure and notify the Directorate of Veterinary Medicine.

http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/articl...rticleID=88591

Alternate translation of the paragraph about the teacher:

The security services in Giza chased the cars laden with the birds, and they seized 3778 an alive chicken in 3 cars and the execution of sequestered items took place with the knowledge of veterinary medicine inside health cemeteries, that comes within the framework of the follow-up of the spread of the bird flu virus and in Cairo the Veterinary Medicine Department confirmed the passivity [negativity] of sample related to a teacher that its family suspected his death by the bird flu.

I think the Veterinary Medicine Department was talking about results on tests from the teacher's birds and not the teach.

[gsgs]

weather in Cairo last 12 weeks:
http://magictour.free.fr/panflu/weaegy1.jpg


Dec.7 - Dec.15 they had low humidity of about 50%
Dec.19 - Dec.28 it rose to about 65%
temperature was between 0°C and 25°C during this period.
Highest activity and infection probability by breathing is presumably
during daytime at temperature of ~ 20°C.
Guinea-pig daytime breathing-infectivity was about 3 times higher
in the 2nd half of December in Cairo than in the 1st half.



transmission of influenza A/Panama/2007/99(H3N2) between
Guinea pigs depending on temperature and relative humidity:


however, in Indonesia we have 23°C-35°C and 70%-80% humidity
most of the time of the year, so there should be hardly any
airborne influenza.

temperature in degree Celsius
   |           |           |
  |05          20          30
--|-----------------------------------
20|.           .xxxxxxx
35|.xxxxxxxx   .xxxxxxxx   .
50|.xxxxxxx    .xx
65|.xxxx       .xxxxxx
80|.xxxx       .
--|-----------------------------------
|
|_relative humidity in %

x: one infected guinea pig (out of 8)

[Theresa42]

1 new sus case in Sharkia: Husam Muhammad (4M)
1 new sus case in Qena: 4 month old child
3(?) new sus cases in Al Gharbiyah (there's 6 reported here but we already have 3, I think -- need to check with previous list)

Hat-tip, Helblindi & commonground!

Google-translated from Arabic:

Preventive measures against bird flu in the provinces
Execution 22.7 thousand birds in the East [Sharkia] and the lake [Beheira], Dakahliya safe ..
Jan 3, 2008

Between preventive action taken by the provinces to address the bird flu virus and movements of teams of veterinary medicine to control the new outposts in the provinces, renewed fears of the sick and warnings converted into an epidemic .. In general lost governorates witnessed yesterday fraught days of confrontations with the dreaded bird flu .. What happened?!

East [Sharkia] Abdel Ahawadwi:

Unfolded hotbed of new avian influenza infection in a poultry farms mothers City Salehia new Eastern [Sharkia] Province .. Dr Mustafa Attiya Undersecretary of Veterinary Medicine maintaining that the technical follow-up committee yesterday to execute all the contents farm and whose capacity hits 22 thousand and 600 chickens.

Children were detained Husam Muhammad 4 years from the village centre Alkhis Abouhmad Eastern Province, on suspicion of being bird flu, were obtained on a sample of the child victim and sent to the central laboratory in Cairo.

Lake [Beheira] from Tamer Abdul:

First emerged hotbed of cases of avian influenza in the province of Beheira La Alhouci weakness Hamada, with the execution of a number of the 105 bird house officer Mohamed Khalil Abdalkoi and neighbouring houses.

Mansoura [Dakahlia] Office Ahram:

Dr Fathi tabled Undersecretary of the Ministry of Veterinary Medicine Being that Dakahlia free bird flu and the results of all samples taken from the farm were negative.

Aswan Aboualnil of conciliator:

Directorate of Veterinary Medicine began Aswan campaign to vaccinate domestic birds against avian influenza, "said Al Omar Mustafa, Secretary General of maintaining that the campaign will last 3 months, and targeted vaccination million birds.

Qena from Osama Al Hawwari:

Hospital dietary detained yesterday another child aged 4 months on suspicion of being bird flu after the emergence of symptoms and the number of deaths of birds in the house his family was being farmed by, has Directorate Veterinary Medicine cleared the house and birds living and buried landfill health preservation.

Western [Al Gharbiyah] Alaa Abdullah:

6 cases were detained suspected of being infected with the disease hospital dietary Mehalla Great Western Province, to the emergence of symptoms of high temperature constant, and bone pain. Testing was conducted for the suspect in the injury and taking Pap hours and sent to the central Ministry of Health laboratories Cairo to indicate the extent of the illness or not.

http://www.ahram.org.eg/Index.asp?Cu...2.htm&DID=9450

[HenryN]

January 3, 2008

Egypt: 4 Women Die of Bird Flu

By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
Bird flu has killed four Egyptian women in the past week, according to Egyptian health officials and the World Health Organization. The women, ages 25 to 50, were from different provinces, and the cases were not related, officials said. At least one was a chicken seller, and the others were said to have kept poultry at home. The H5N1 strain of avian flu appears endemic in Egyptian poultry; previously the last human case was in June. A total of 43 Egyptians have been infected with H5N1 since it arrived in early 2006; 19 died.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/03/wo...nt&oref=slogin

[Theresa42]

A mention here of 143 suspected cases in connection with the recent 5 confirmed cases and 4 deaths. Not sure what this figure means -- 143 suspected cases currently? Recently? No idea.

Google-translated from Arabic:

Is succeed Supreme Committee to Combat Anflonzataior in the face of the disease in Egypt?
Jan 3, 2008

Cairo - the Supreme Committee to Combat Bird Flu, the execution of all birds and remnants of the farms that prove her illness, as well as prevention education home with the closure of the farms are not bound to vaccinate poultry and protection Mnlmayor 6 months.

Attended the meeting of the Higher Committee for the flu, Dr. Hatem mountain Minister of Health, Amin Abaza, and Minister of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, the governor Giza, and Alestoualemnovih also told the Middle East News Agency.

And the Committee to tighten controls on the production of poultry farms either in education or home, taking all the aggravating and decisive action in all governorates to prevent the transport of poultry from one governorate to another, from one farm to another. The committee stressed that continue to ban poultry houses in the final in cities and governorates.

The Commission invited all citizens contacts poultry go directly to the hospitals and health units at once a sense of the body temperature to control the disease in its inception and a large proportion of healing.

He Amin Abaza, and Minister of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, in a press conference held after the meeting that one of the reasons for the emergence of the disease again some neglect and inaction of the relevant agencies and the owners of some of the farms, and a failure to follow procedures and precautions required for prevention of the disease.

He highlighted the granting of Governors authorities in implementing the decisions of the Supreme Committee for the fight against bird flu and to control the poultry sector in Egypt to ensure the integrity and safety of human health.

For his part, Dr. Hatem mountain Minister of Health, there is no dialogue in the virus during the last period confirming the safety and effectiveness of vaccines and serums used in the immunization, although there proportion acknowledged by the global vaccines lose validity result of storage.

The minister pointed out that the cases that have been cured, which is headed for the hospital early warning of dealing with vulnerable hearts of educators who transferred infected poultry in the dark for sale to citizens.

He and the Minister of Health that decided to form work teams from the Ministry of Agriculture and Health and veterinary medicine continuously monitoring the poultry in various locations to detect the case of injury, Powell addressed first.

From its side, the chariman Ayman Al Kaffas said the General Information Authority president and spokesman higher committee in the press conference that was held after the meeting of the committee is that the reports that the highest committee discussed in its meeting today pointed out that the injury ratio by the bird flu disease reached in 2007 about 25 an injury [25 confirmed cases in 2007] -- and the suspicion conditions reached about 143 case from them 5 injuries and four conditions of deaths [i.e. the recent group of 5 cases with 4 deaths] -- compared with 18 injuries in 2006 and most of the injuries were in the females.

He saw that the global position of avian influenza far beyond the situation in Egypt, where the number of casualties amounted to 348 cases and 216 deaths around the situation, and the highest mortality rates in Indonesia and Vietnam

On the other hand, the competent departments of veterinary medicine Dakahlia governorate day Wednesday the execution of the 1301 influenza miscellaneous after 4 cars seized in the governorate without a permit.

http://www.masrawy.com/News/Egypt/Lo...2/birdflu.aspx

[Theresa42]

No new sus cases listed here.

Google-translated from Arabic:

Bird flu fever sweeping the governorates
Jan 3, 2007

Egypt fever swept avian influenza again this week following the announcement that the cases of injury and death of new governorates .. [Port] Said hotbeds appeared in the new area south villages Radwan, Cape .. And hit a family of 4 members at severe temperature, had been detained [as suspected cases] Hospital Dietetic [Port] Said.

In Aswan the brigade Aswan Governor Samir Seif decision to prevent trafficking in live bird and not circulated in the market and ordered the immediate execution of shipments Chicks before entering the province.

In Qaliubiya hike remove 150 chickens nest of flats housing area and execute 12 thousand chickens in a farm village Alrahuben status Shebin Spans.

In Alexandria intensified Directorate Veterinary Medicine campaigns on poultry farms scattered government, and troops raided the Directorate of some slums, and removed some nests were symptoms of the disease had emerged in the province by suspected .. She died 4 new cases .. It is noted that Alexandria was Mcefh last year settled within the provinces where the disease.

In West [Al Gharbiyah] has been disclosed new wells [outbreaks] in Mahala, and authorities culled thousands of dead birds government, Chancellor Adli Hussein, governor of the West [Al Gharbiyah] need Egypt for 10 years to eradicate bird flu and confirmed that the 19 Qaliubiya new epicentre [outbreaks] of the disease.

In Qena baby were detained after being suspected of bird flu ..

In Dakahlia executed Investigation Supply 1300 Nestling and chickens seized on the border of maintaining loaded on transport vehicles without permits and was on its way to shops bird preservation.

http://www.alwafd.org/v3/News/NewsDe...ed45106ef071b0

[Theresa42]

Originally Posted by Theresa42

Using both of those, I get -- 6 suspected cases mentioned, but 2 we already have -- so that's 4 new suspected cases. Is that right?:

Al Sadr's Hospital Mansoura - Fatma/Fatima Fathi Al Mahdi (F)

Banha Fevers - Mohamed Talaat Mostafa Aboualfdl (3M) -- one of the "no names" reported earlier? Or another admission to Banha?

"My wedding procession" [Abo_ak_i Hospital pathogenesis Zfti] Fevers Hospital - Sara Adel Aboushadi (child)

Damanhur Fevers - Mohamed Khalil Abdul Qawi

El-Mahalla El-Kubra Fevers - Hani (34) and "khan guidance" -- that hospital is in Al Gharbiyah and that's the policeman and the child, Huda Khaled -- so we already have them.

Fatma/Fatima above sounds like confirmed victim:

Fatma Fathi Mohamed (25F) - d. Dec 30, 2007 -- Dikirnis, Ad Daqahliyah governorate

So, I'm not going to count her as a suspected case. (Mansoura is in Ad Daqahliyah governorate)

[Theresa42]

I have these 6-10 new suspected cases to add to the list from yesterday. I'm not going to update the list until after I check the news for today. Do these sound right?:

Sharkia
Jan 03: Husam Muhammad (4M) - from the village centre Alkhis Abouhmad

Al Qalyubia
Jan 02: Mohamed Talaat Mostafa Aboualfdl (3M) - in Banha Fevers - one of the 2 (3?) mentioned above?

Al Gharbiyah
Jan 02: Sara Adel Aboushadi (child) from "My wedding procession" [Abo_ak_i Hospital pathogenesis Zfti]

Jan 03: 6 (3 to 6 new) unnamed cases in Mehalla Hospital - high temps & "bone pain"

Qena
Jan 03: 4 month old child

[ironorehopper]

... the injury ratio by the bird flu disease reached in 2007 about 25 an injury [25 confirmed cases in 2007] -- and the suspicion conditions reached about 143 case from them 5 injuries and four conditions of deaths [i.e. the recent group of 5 cases with 4 deaths] -- compared with 18 injuries in 2006 and most of the injuries were in the females.

--
According yesterday WHO update, which adds the most recent fatal cases (25 years old female from Dekerns District, Dakahlyah Governorate, 36 years old female from Menof District, Menofia Governorate, http://www.who.int/csr/don/2008_01_02/en/index.html), cumulative number of cases and deaths for 2007 is 25 (8 deaths, including the above two), and from 2006 is 43 (18 deaths).

[Theresa42]

8 or 9 new suspected cases.

Dakahlia: 6 new unnamed sus cases in Sadr [Chest] Hospital, Mansoura
Ismailia: 2 new unnamed sus cases in Sadr Ismailia

Menoufiya: 1 new? unnamed case in "salt hospital" Menoufiya

Al Gharbiyah: 6 unnamed sus cases to hospital in Mahala -- I think we prolly already have these
Qena: 1 unnamed sus case -- prolly the infant

Google-translated from Arabic:

16 cases of detention on suspicion of being infected with avian influenza
Jan 3, 2007

Salem wrote Mitwalli, Ghada Adel patron Anna, Hani Abdel-Rahman

Rose on the government and its state of emergency in the provinces, to cope with bird flu, which has returned strongly. Hospitals have detained 16 cases in 5 provinces, were suspected of being infected with the disease. Dr. Hatem and threatened mountain, Minister of Health, to take "violent actions", against any man who is careless about the application instructions for combating the disease.

Detained Hospital Dietetic Mahala 6 cases were suspected of being infected with bird flu, and detained Sadr Hospital in Mansoura 6 other cases, detained in hospital in Sadr Ismailia two other cases, and detained Hospital Qena case, in addition to another case in a hospital salt Menoufiya, were sent samples of infected blood factor and the central Ministry of Health for analysis.

The provinces: Aswan and Damietta and Port Said and Damietta and the city of Luxor raises the state of emergency, and to take preventive action to prevent the spread of the disease.

Commissioned Amin Abaza Agriculture Minister General Authority for Veterinary Services prepare a comprehensive inventory of poultry farms, which violate safety norms vital, as a prelude to taking the necessary action to the immediate closure of them. With Dr. Hatem mountain, Minister of Health, that the government will begin to tighten their procedures to combat the disease, threatening to take "violent actions" against any man who is careless about in this matter.

He told Reuters: "happened kind of laxity and leniency, people imagine that the disease ended, when we tell them that the disease is endemic in Egypt, and will continue for several years."

http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/articl...rticleID=88706

[Theresa42]

Details.

Google-translated from Arabic:

The detention of 16 cases in 5 provinces of suspected avian influenza Basapthm

Wrote governorates - "Egyptian today: 3/1/2008

Detained hospitals of the Ministry of Health 16 cases of suspected bird flu Basapthm disease, which rose at a time when the responsible state of emergency, and threatened Dr. Hatem mountain Minister of Health to take "violent actions" against any man who is careless about the application instructions for combating the disease.

He was detained Hospital Dietetic Mahala yesterday 6 cases of suspected bird flu infection, and detained Sadr Hospital in Dakahlia 6 cases, also detained in hospital salt Ismailia two other cases, and detained Hospital Dietetic Qena another case for the same reason, and detained Hospital Dietetic Menoufiya another case.

The governor Damietta, Ason lifting of the state of emergency in the two provinces to prevent the spread of disease and avoid new victims.

In Port Said decides executed 25 thousand birds after detecting foci Clark, as decided vaccination million birds in Aswan, 50 thousand in Luxor has been the removal of 150 nests, and the execution of 12 thousand chickens in Qaliubia.

Western [Al Gharbiyah] detained in hospital salt Mahala on the ten-year, Secretary of police [police officer] from the village of Ameriya; Hoda Khalid Saeed bovine year and 8 months from the village of Aldoakhlih; Aida Abdul Aziz, 28, from the village of Al Abualli; Ahmed Mohammed Salim, 24, from the Republic; and Hatem Mohammed Jamil, 52 years, all of Mahala and a girl allegedly saw Mohammed Shihata, 8 months, from the village of Mit Taha of the Centre mmas.

Said Dr. Hamdi Alinveri, director of the hospital had been taking samples from the patients for analysis in the laboratories of the Ministry of Health, while the security forces surrounded the house of Jean control Creative Marketing for birds and examine existing neighbouring houses.

In Dakahlia received hospital livelihood Mr. Sadr mediator, 40 years old, from the Centre for nitrogen; and Fatma Mohammed Saeed, 45, from Mansoura; Mohamed Fathi, whose 13 years of Damietta, the Abdulrahman Abdulrahman, 9 years, and Imad Bader Abdulrahman, aged 40, from the village stone pillars,

Ibrahim Abdel Razek, 50, from the village of Kom Derby infected temperature rise due illness avian influenza result incapable dead birds in their homes.

Said Dr Mr. and Undersecretary of the Ministry of Health Being that the cases were detained on suspicion only, has been sure of infection, he pointed out sampling of them and sent to central laboratories at the Ministry of Health for analysis.

In Ismailia detained Hospital dietary me SM Ezbet of Eid of the village on Eid; Salma Ahmed Hussein, from the village of painted Daryll high temperature and pneumonia, and headache, were taking samples for analysis in their labs ministry.

Dr. Mohamed Al-Sharkawi, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Health maintaining a state of emergency in all hospitals maintain, pointing to the lack of cases so far.

In Qena detained Hospital dietary child Mohamed Khaled Adli, 4 months on suspicion of injury, and the governor said Maj. Gen. Magdi Ayoub that the child is suffering from high temperature after death Drjajh at his home, pointing out that he was taking a sample of the child for analysis in laboratories ministry.

In Menoufiya detained Hospital Dietetic Shebin Mound hopes Mr. Sabbagh, 30, from the village "Dkma" on suspicion of being infected, said Dr. Atta, Hisham Youssef, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Health to replace diseased owns a grocery store in the village and raising chickens in her home, pointing out that he was taking samples for analysis.

In Damietta, the governor, Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei Fathi, a state of emergency after the death of Atwah Hanim Ibrahim Amara affected the safety of the disease, and El Baradei stressed to the heads of cities and towns, health, veterinary medicine and the environment need to tighten controls on the market and to prevent the circulation of living birds, and monitor the entrances and exits to prevent the entry of preserving birds.

In Port Said, the supreme committee to combat the disease foci in the discovery of the villages Radwan Cape south of the city, took the campaign of health, veterinary medicine, environment and admonishing Supply collect dead birds and the patient is in bifocal to destroy.

Said Dr. Mustafa Musa, director of veterinary medicine, the Governor Major General Mustafa Kamel decided to form a committee to determine the bird home to be destroyed, which amounts to 25 thousand birds, including chickens, ducks and pigeons.

In Luxor, decided to Dr. Samir Farag Chairman of the Supreme Council of the city, the formation of a committee headed by the secretary-general and directors of the membership of Health and veterinary medicine, agriculture and the environment to immunize 50 thousand birds.

In Aswan, the governor, Major General Samir Youssef declaration of a state of emergency, and to prevent the circulation of living birds in the market while allowing the education in the homes of the villages only, pointing to maintain approval to change the activity of bird stores, in the interests of owners.

Dr. Al-Hamad Abu Dahi, director general of veterinary medicine, it has been decided to launch a campaign to vaccinate birds in the house at the level of governance for a period of 3 months, pointing out that the vaccination campaign targeting million birds, and said he was providing 600 thousand doses of the vaccine for this purpose.

In Qalubia, announced Arafa STEVENSON city head Shebin Kanater, that the removal of 150 nests inside apartments and houses in the town and villages of pointing out that the execution of 12 thousand chickens in a farm in the village after Zhoyen proven her.

With Dr. Hatem mountain Minister of Health, that the government will begin to tighten their procedures to combat the disease, threatening to take violent action against any man who is careless about this issue, and he said to Reuters: a kind of laxity and leniency, people imagine that the disease ended when we tell them: that the disease is endemic in Egypt, and will continue for several years.

The minister pointed out that all the deaths that have occurred since the onset of illness three years ago is the result of poultry at home.

He urged doctors mountain to a questionnaire whether asylum-treatment are contacts birds, pointing out that deny people crowded birds for fear of them take these birds.

http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/articl...rticleID=88665

[Theresa42]

4 new sus cases -- 2 in Alexandria and 2 (mother & baby, I think) in Kafr Al Sheikh.

Google-translated from Arabic:

Suspicion of wounding 4 persons of Lake disease
Jan 3, 2007

Karem Guentoc lake:

4 persons were booking Lake Bhmyat Alexandria and Kafr El-Sheikh on suspicion of avian influenza infection are: Mahdi Abdul Aziz Mahmoud Ashour "43 years" and works in a poultry farms 68 kilometers along the Cairo-Alexandria Desert Road was booked Hospital Dietetic Alexandria; Mohamed Mahmoud abdelhameed "20 years" and works one Stores birds reside Babis was booked Bhmyat Alexandria; and equity Mohamed Hammouda "32 years" homemaker and baby Amal Ibrahim Ghraib "in the year and a half" and the adjoining village Smjarat Barahmanih was Hdzhma Hospital Dietetic Kafr El-Sheikh.

http://www.algomhuria.net.eg/almessa...l/detail06.asp [<< not a permalink]

[HenryN]

Commentary at

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01...uspect_16.html

[AlaskaDenise]

Originally Posted by niman

Commentary at

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01...uspect_16.html

Commentary

Sixteen New Suspect H5N1 Cases in Egypt

Recombinomics Commentary 12:04
January 3, 2008

Rose on the government and its state of emergency in the provinces, to cope with bird flu, which has returned strongly. Hospitals have detained 16 cases in 5 provinces, were suspected of being infected with the disease. Dr. Hatem and threatened mountain, Minister of Health, to take "violent actions", against any man who is careless about the application instructions for combating the disease.

Detained Hospital Dietetic Mahala 6 cases were suspected of being infected with bird flu, and detained Sadr Hospital in Mansoura 6 other cases, detained in hospital in Sadr Ismailia two other cases, and detained Hospital Qena case, in addition to another case in a hospital salt Menoufiya, were sent samples of infected blood factor and the central Ministry of Health for analysis.

The provinces: Aswan and Damietta and Port Said and Damietta and the city of Luxor raises the state of emergency, and to take preventive action to prevent the spread of the disease.

The above translation describes 16 new suspect cases in 5 governorates, which are in addition to the cases announced in the past few days (see satellite map). This dramatic rise increases pandemic concerns. Although Egypt has had a large number of suspect cases previously, the numbers generally track with seasonal flu and peak in March or April. The rise in suspect cases many be die in part to heightened awareness stemming from the dramatic increase in H5N1 on commercial farms and backyard holdings (see satellitle map), as well as the four deaths in the five confirmed cases which were recently announced.

As noted, samples have been sent to central labs for testing, and new confimed cases have not been announced since the beginning of the week, but there have been few announcements of patients testing negative.

H5 has been confirmed at a petting zoo in Israel, and the culling in Saudi Arabia has been extensive recently. It is likely that H5N1 is widespread in the Middle East, but thus far only Egypt has announced confirmed cases.

More information on the suspect cases, including negative results, would be useful.


.

[Theresa42]

These 2 may be some of the unnamed in Al Qaliubiyah that we already have listed.

Google-translated from Arabic:

And the seizure of two women Bhmyat cows [Banha]
Jan 3, 2007

QALUBAIYA Majdi Rifai:

Been booking two women Hospital Dietetic cows injured on suspicion of avian influenza. For his. Al backed Under-Directorate of Health able to cases of Kafr thanked .. It has been sampling them for testing labs ministry.

http://www.algomhuria.net.eg/almessa...l/detail07.asp [<< not a permalink]

[Theresa42]

Google-translated from Arabic:

Supreme Committee for the control of avian influenza headed Abaza:
Neglect of plantation owners and vaccinations corrupt .. Behind the emergence of new hotbeds
Education over houses in the city is banned .. And dissuasive sanctions for offenders
Jan 3, 2007

Follow-up: Iskandar Ahmad

The Supreme Committee for bird flu an important meeting last night headed by Amin Abaza, and Minister of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, and attend Dr. Hatem mountain Health Minister and Ambassador Ayman Fast and 6 governors and the meeting lasted about 5 hours building in the Ministry of Agriculture, after the meeting was to hold a press conference to respond to all queries.

Said Amin Abaza, and Minister of Agriculture and Land Reclamation that the cause of the spread of avian influenza in the recent period due to the negligence of some owners of large farms and retreating from the vaccinations and follow the instructions, which required that applied before and the reason for inaction and neglect led to the emergence of new wells.

During a press conference that was to discuss issues in all its aspects and decides to return discipline to the sector and the control of the national wealth and that the governors authorized by the law with full force and vigour, closure of the farms violation.

The second points to the return of discipline is to prevent breeding birds in the cities and on the roofs of houses and urban areas will be the application of the law vigorously on violators in order not to be contact between birds and the public .. Thirdly tighten controls on poultry sellers, shops selling and slaughter.

He said Hatem mountain Minister of Health that there was no shift of the virus to humans and that all the casualties were injured, mostly in contact with farm has been the transmission of the disease from patient to patient, but the disease has been moved from contact with birds only.

Minister of Health attributed the cause of the spread of avian influenza that a large proportion of influenza vaccinations by corrupt .. He explained that human casualties only 5 cases .. The reason for the purchase of poultry infection from an unknown source, as well as citizens deal with infected birds.

The Minister of Health, although we consider this less state in the world in the incidence of disease bird flu although the disease was settled in Egypt and the percentage of recovery if reported a 100% recovery and appealed to the Minister of Health citizens immediately reporting any case.

He said Ayman saw spokesman Higher Committee for the control of avian influenza .. The Committee has taken several decisions immediately are:

- Repeated closure of any farm where the spread of the disease for a period of 6 months and that the farm fully accountable and personal safety of poultry transport, licensing, data and any violation is part of the conservative farm located in a jurisdiction being immediately.

- Tighten control of poultry production and be strict and decisive by the conservatives.

- The method of addressing the vaccine must be sound and not handling diseased poultry or transfer or dealing with them.

- Non negligence if the patient felt Almkhalt rise in temperature by going to the nearest hospital for treatment and speaks frankly about his condition.

He noted that the avian influenza virus has become endemic in Egypt, he appeared in the provinces of Dakahlia, West [Al Gharbiyah] and East [Sharkia], Giza and Beni Suef and Fayoum.

His most cases, the injuries were scattered among the women contacts of the disease and poultry farmer workers.

The danger is facing all and must unite and awareness in this regard, for which the Ministry of Information awareness programmes contracted avian influenza.

http://www.algomhuria.net.eg/almessa...l/detail00.asp [<< not a permalink]

[sharon sanders]

Originally Posted by Theresa42

I have these 6-10 new suspected cases to add to the list from yesterday. I'm not going to update the list until after I check the news for today. Do these sound right?:

Sharkia
Jan 03: Husam Muhammad (4M) - from the village centre Alkhis Abouhmad

Al Qalyubia
Jan 02: Mohamed Talaat Mostafa Aboualfdl (3M) - in Banha Fevers - one of the 2 (3?) mentioned above?

Al Gharbiyah
Jan 02: Sara Adel Aboushadi (child) from "My wedding procession" [Abo_ak_i Hospital pathogenesis Zfti]

Jan 03: 6 (3 to 6 new) unnamed cases in Mehalla Hospital - high temps & "bone pain"

Qena
Jan 03: 4 month old child

Those look right from yesterday.


Thanks Theresa42!

[Theresa42]

Here's the list I've come up with. Lemme know if anyone sees anything incorrect or missing (I'm not sure I've got the number from Qalyubia right...). There's a range of numbers for the suspected cases since in some instance we have reports without names so we don't know if they're dupes or not.

(Oh -- I alphabetized the governorates -- couldn't stand it anymore!)

Since Dec 25th I've got:
5 confirmed cases / 4 deaths
Between 46 - 48 suspected cases / 1 death / 1 (or 2?) tested neg (not counted)

SUMMARY OF CONFIRMED AND SUSPECTED CASES IN EGYPT SINCE DEC 25

5 Confirmed cases / 4 deaths

Oula Yunis Ali Mohamed (25F) - d. Dec 25, 2007 -- Beni Haroun, Beni Suef governorate
Attorh Hanim Ibrahim [aka Hanem Atwa Ibrahim] (50F) - d. Dec 31, 2007 -- Shatt `Ezbet el-Lahm, Damietta governorate
Nora Aboul Abbas Mohamed (21/22F) -- Barhim near Minuf city, Al Minufiyah
Fatma Fathi Mohamed (25F) - d. Dec 30, 2007 -- Dikirnis, Ad Daqahliyah governorate
Firdaus Mohamed Hadad (26F) - d. Dec 31, 2007 -- Al Minufiyah governorate


Between 46 - 48 suspected cases reported in the last week / 1 death / 1 (or 2?) tested neg (not counted)

Alexandria Governorate (3)

Dec 31 - Faten (23F)

Jan 03 - Mahdi Abdul Aziz Mahmoud Ashour (43M?) - poultry worker - Hospital "Dietetic" Alexandria
Jan 03 - Mohamed Mahmoud Abdel Hameed (20M) - reside Babis


Beheira Governorate - (1)

Dec 30 - Mohamed Khalil Abdul Qawi (40M) - Ezbet "Notes", [Centre Kom Hamada] Kawm Hamadah


Beni Suef (1)

Jan 02 - Anwar Ali Sayyad (25M) [unemployed] from Shaweesh Ahnassa village


Cairo Governorate (1 neg?)

NEG? - Dec 31 - Salah Eddin Mohamed Ali (43M) - d. Dec 29 - Al Amiriyah - teacher - test results on man?/birds? reported to be neg on Jan 2


Dakahlia Governorate (6)

Jan 03 - Mr. Sadr mediator (40M) - from the Centre for nitrogen
Jan 03 - Fatma Mohammed Saeed (45F) - from Mansoura
Jan 03 - Mohamed Fathi (13) - of Damietta
Jan 03 - Abdul Rahman Abdul Rahman (9M) - from the village stone pillars
Jan 03 - Imad Bader Abdul Rahman (40F?) - from the village stone pillars
Jan 03 - Ibrahim Abdel Razek (50M) - from the village of Kom Derby


Gharbiyah/Al Gharbiyah (7)

Jan 01 - "34 years" policeman (Ali El-Ashry per flubergasted) - from the village of Ameriya, Mahala - Hospital Salt Mahala
Jan 01 - Huda Khaled (1M?) [aka Hoda Khalid Saeed] - from the village of Aldoakhilih, Mahala - Hospital Salt Mahala

Jan 02 - Sara Adel Aboushadi (child) from "My wedding procession" [Abo_ak_i Hospital pathogenesis Zfti]

Jan 03 - Aida Abdul Aziz (28F?) - from the village of Al Abualli, Mahala - Hospital Salt Mahala
Jan 03 - Ahmed Mohammed Salim (24M) - from "the Republic", Mahala - Hospital Salt Mahala
Jan 03 - Hatem Mohammed Jamil (52M) - Mahala - Hospital Salt Mahala
Jan 03 - "Allegedly Saw" Mohammed Shihata (8 months F) - from the village of Mit Taha, Centre Mmas - Hospital Salt Mahala


Ismailia (2)

Jan 03 - SM Ezbet - Eid of the village on Eid
Jan 03 - Salma Ahmed Hussein - from the village of painted Daryll - high temperature and pneumonia, and headache


Menoufiya/Al Minufiyah Governorate (10)

Dec 30 - Nader Said Babylonian (5M) - ["Al Btanoun"] Al Batanun
Dec 30 - Ahmad Abdul Mohsen [aka Roqayya Ahmed Abdul Mohsen] (6M) - from a village "Tnbdi hamlet" ["Kafr Tunbdi"] in Shibin Al Kawm center [Kafr Tambidi?]

Dec 31 - Abdul Rahman Ibrahim (57M)
Dec 31 - Abed Rabbo (50M?)

Jan 01 - Adel Mohamed Adel - from [Sers Al-Layan] Sirs al Layyanah
Jan 01 - Doaa - daughter of Adel Mohamed Adel

Jan 01 - Mohamed Said Abdul Rahman - from Barhim
Jan 01 - Karim Mohamed Fawzi - from Kafr Sheikh Khalil village in Shibin Al Kawm
Jan 01 - Hamida Abdul Hafiz Rizk - Aboukls [Abu Kullus] village in the Martyrs

Jan 03 - "Hopes" Mr. Sabbagh (30F?) - from the village "Dkma" - Hospital Dietetic Shebin Mound

*Note that confirmed case Nora Aboul Abbas Mohamed above is also from Barhim, Al Minufiyah.


Kafr El-Sheikh (2)

Jan 03 - "Equity" Mohamed Hammouda (32F) - homemaker - village Smjarat Barahmanih was Hdzhma - Hospital Dietetic Kafr El-Sheikh
Jan 03 - Amal Ibrahim Ghraib (1?) - "Equity's" baby? - village Smjarat Barahmanih was Hdzhma - Hospital Dietetic Kafr El-Sheikh


Qalyubia (4 or 5)

Jan 01 - Safaa Mohamed Abdul Razek - nurse in the health unit - village of Al Alzm belonging to Shibin El Kanatar center [Shabin al Qanatir]

Jan 02 - Mohamed Talaat Mostafa Aboualfdl (3M) - in Banha Fevers - one of the 2 (3?) mentioned below?

Jan 03 - 2 (3?) new sus cases admitted to Banha Hosptial -- no names [also another report of 2 women being admitted to Banha Hospital]


Qena (1)

Jan 03 - Mohamed Khaled Adli - 4 month old child - Qena "Dietary" Hospital - high temperature


Port Said (4)

Dec 31 - Reza Abdalmugod Abdilkadir (25M) - husband of Radwan - "Satisfaction village in south of Port Said"
Dec 31 - Radwan - wife of Reza
Dec 31 - Mohammed (9M) - son of Reza & Radwan
Dec 31 - Rajab (5M) - son of Reza & Radwan


Sharkia/Ash Sharqiyah (5 + 1 neg)

NEG - Jan 01 - Nabil Ahmed Mohamed (8M) - from the village of Hrbit belonging to Aboukbir center

Jan 02 - Samia el-Sayed Awad (55F)
Jan 02 - Menah Mohamed Fathi (3F) - granddaughter of Samia

Jan 02 - Iman Sobhi (25F)
Jan 02 - Mohamed Maher Reda - Iman's son

Jan 03 - Husam Muhammad (4M) - from the village centre Alkhis Abouhmad

[Theresa42]

Updated list updated - removed 1 dupe.

Since Dec 25th I've got:
5 confirmed cases / 4 deaths
Between 46 - 48 suspected cases / 1 death / 1 (or 2?) tested neg (not counted)

[Dutchy]

EGYPT: No bird flu pandemic despite recent deaths - health officials

DUBAI, 3 January 2008 (IRIN) - Four humans have died of bird flu in Egypt in the past week but health officials deny the country is gripped by an influenza pandemic.

“There is still no fear that the virus has transformed into an influenza pandemic,” John Jabbour, a medical consultant for emerging diseases at the World Health Organization (WHO) regional office for the Eastern Mediterranean, told IRIN.

Sixteen other suspected cases were admitted to hospital on 2 January, according to Amany Nakhla, the regional planning assistant for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) regional office, in Cairo.

According to media reports, the H5N1 strain has been detected among poultry in the Nile Delta, especially those reared in homesteads.

All four deaths in the past week were of women from the Nile Delta region and they brought to 19 the number of people who have died of the H5N1 strain of avian flu since avian flu was first detected in Egypt in 2006. Three of the four women were infected by domestic birds in their homes. The fourth was a poultry seller.

The WHO has said some of those who died having contracted the H5N1 virus strain showed moderate resistance to Tamiflu, the antiviral drug.

Before their deaths the last reported case of a human death from bird flu was in June 2007. “Avian flu is a behavioural disease and as a long time has passed since it [last] appeared in the country, people went back to their previous habits of raising poultry inside their homes because it is the only source of income for many of them,” Jabbour said.

Precautionary measures

Egypt has taken extensive precautionary measures against bird flu since it appeared in the country in 2006. “We formed a higher committee to combat bird flu which convenes every month... The committee includes representatives from the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Agriculture, the different provinces and security forces,” Abdel Ghaffar Abdel Nasser, head of the disease surveillance unit at the Ministry of Health, told IRIN.

“We reached an advanced stage in our global pandemic plan on the national level, too, and we are working now at the provincial and hospital level. This plan focuses on defining the responsibilities of each party in case the disease becomes a global pandemic,” Adel Nasser noted.

“The awareness campaigns we conducted were very fruitful. For example, all the cases among children reported last year were cured. Mothers immediately took their children to hospital once they suspected that they [the children] had some bird flu symptoms,” he said.

“What we noticed recently is that people are becoming lazy in reporting the death of their poultry or the appearance of symptoms… Many of those who go to hospital after the appearance of bird flu symptoms still lie to doctors when asked if they raise poultry at home,” he said.

Transportation of birds

The government has said that the large number of people who keep poultry at home makes it difficult to eradicate the disease. Because of this the government declared an emergency in the Delta region in an attempt to stop the spread of the virus. It has also warned that it will take strong measures against farms that do not follow the rules for raising poultry.

The government also banned the transport of birds from one province to another without permission. “Before moving the birds, dealers should inform the veterinary medicine unit which in turn will take some samples of the birds and send them to the laboratory for testing. Permission is issued if the results are negative,” said Saber Abdel Aziz, head of the general directorate of poultry epidemics and diseases at the Ministry of Agriculture.

The vehicles that transport live poultry are stopped for inspection at different checkpoints throughout the country. “There are at least 100 checkpoints in every province and security forces and veterinary specialists are available in three shifts,” he added.

Abdel Aziz said the ministry had increased its budget for vaccinations this year. “We are planning to give 200 million vaccination doses this year compared to 150 million last year.”

In the second phase of its vaccination campaign, which stared on 15 December and which will end on 15 March, the ministry aims to vaccinate 85 million domestic birds.

“The vaccines are free of charge for domestically-bred birds,” Abdul Aziz said. The first phase of the campaign, which started in June and ended in December 2007, targeted 76 million birds in all.


Report can be found online at:
http://www.irnnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=76083

[Theresa42]

I'm going to be away from the computer almost all day tomorrow (yikes!) -- most importantly in the early a.m. which is when the Egyptian papers update.

The ones I check update at noon Egypt time which is 4 a.m. ET. Edit: Masrawy.com updates throughout the day.

So, if anyone's up for a challenge, here are the pages of the papers that I usually check (I'll also let pugmom and UK-Bird over at FW know that I'm going to be gone -- they also do Arabic translations).

Thanks!

Google translator:
http://www.google.com/language_tools?hl=en

Al Masry Al Youm (Egypt Today):
Front page: http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/Default.aspx?r=t
"Hot issues"" http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/sectio...?SectionID=294
Egypt news: http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/sectio...?SectionID=295
Accidents/incidents: http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/sectio...?SectionID=301

Al Messa (The Evening Gazette)
Front page: http://www.algomhuria.net.eg/almessa/today/first/
Third page: http://www.algomhuria.net.eg/almessa/today/third/
Local: http://www.algomhuria.net.eg/almessa/today/local/
Accidents: http://www.algomhuria.net.eg/almessa/today/accedents/

*Two quirky things about Al Messa: 1) if you see "Other news" as a headline, make sure to click on it -- you'll go to another page that will have several stories on it -- bf stories are often there; 2) Al Messa translates better on Firefox rather than Internet Explorer -- for some reason, parts of the page disappear on Explorer.

Al Wafd (The Delegation)
Front page: http://www.alwafd.org/v3/News/

*On Al Wafd, also click on the following in the top, right-hand column: Local news, Governorates (sometimes translated as "Sweeteners"), Accidents, Special Reports and Investigations.

Masrawy.com
Egypt news: http://www.masrawy.com/news/egypt/default.aspx
Politics: http://www.masrawy.com/news/egypt/Politics/Default.aspx
Accidents: http://www.masrawy.com/news/Cases/default.aspx

Thanks again everybody!