EGYPT - Jan 4 - Jan 6, 2008

[Theresa42]

Previous Egypt thread:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...t=47358&page=4

[Theresa42]

Yesterday, there were between 46 - 48 suspected cases reported / 1 suspected death / 1 (or 2?) tested neg (not counted). Let me know if I've missed anything or screwed anything up -- or if you have another interpretation on any of the names or whatever. Thanks!

SUMMARY OF CONFIRMED AND SUSPECTED CASES IN EGYPT SINCE DEC 25

5 Confirmed cases / 4 deaths

Oula Yunis Ali Mohamed (25F) - d. Dec 25, 2007 -- Beni Haroun, Beni Suef governorate
Attorh Hanim Ibrahim [aka Hanem Atwa Ibrahim] (50F) - d. Dec 31, 2007 -- Shatt `Ezbet el-Lahm, Damietta governorate
Nora Aboul Abbas Mohamed (21/22F) -- Barhim near Minuf city, Al Minufiyah
Fatma Fathi Mohamed (25F) - d. Dec 30, 2007 -- Dikirnis, Ad Daqahliyah governorate
Firdaus Mohamed Hadad (26F) - d. Dec 31, 2007 -- Al Minufiyah governorate


Between 60 - 63 suspected cases reported since Dec 30 / 1 death / between 10 - 16 tested neg (not counted)

Alexandria Governorate (4)

Dec 31 - Faten (23F)

Jan 03 - Mahdi Abdul Aziz Mahmoud Ashour (43M?) - poultry worker - Hospital "Dietetic" Alexandria
Jan 03 - Mohamed Mahmoud Abdel Hameed (20M) - reside Babis

Jan 04 - Anwar Mohammed Abdul Wahid (14)


Beheira Governorate - (6-7)

Dec 30 - Mohamed Khalil Abdul Qawi (40M) - Ezbet "Notes", [Centre Kom Hamada] Kawm Hamadah - admitted to hospital on Dec 28 (Jan 4th report)

Jan 04 - 1 unnamed suspected case admitted Jan 3

Jan 04 - Reza Ibrahim Ibrahim (10M) - Bhmyat Damanhour
Jan 04 - Unnamed woman
Jan 04 - Unnamed woman's daughter (6 months)
Jan 04 - Unnamed - from Blue Dawar village - Alexandria Pathogenesis Hospital
Jan 04 - Unnamed - from Blue Dawar village - Alexandria Pathogenesis Hospital


Beni Suef Governorate (1)

Jan 02 - Anwar Ali Sayyad (25M) [unemployed] from Shaweesh Ahnassa village


Cairo Governorate (1 neg?)

NEG? - Dec 31 - Salah Eddin Mohamed Ali (43M) - d. Dec 29 - Al Amiriyah - teacher - test results on man?/birds? reported to be neg on Jan 2


Dakahlia Governorate (14-16)

Jan 03 - Mr. Sadr mediator (40M) - from the Centre for nitrogen
Jan 03 - Fatma Mohammed Saeed (45F) - from Mansoura
Jan 03 - Abdul Rahman Abdul Rahman (9M) - from the village stone pillars
Jan 03 - Imad Bader Abdul Rahman (40) - from the village stone pillars
Jan 03 - Ibrahim Abdel Razek (50M) - from the village of Kom Derby

Jan 04 - Mr. Alusivi doctor(?) - from the village and they Aldnanic - Mansoura Chest Hosp. [same as Mr. Sadr mediator above?]
Jan 04 - Nima Mohammed Mahmoud Abdul Hamid - Mansoura Chest Hosp.
Jan 04 - Abdul Rahman Ali Bader - Mansoura Chest Hosp.
Jan 04 - Abdul Rahman Hamadi (13M) - son of Abdul Rahman Ali Bader - Mansoura Chest Hosp.
Jan 04 - Ibrahim Abdul Aziz [same as Ibrahim Abdel Razek above?]
Jan 04 - Nuha Mohammed Fathi - from the village Ain pomegranate, Bdkrns

Jan 04 - Solomon Solomon Reza (2) - from the village of Gross Bbalkas - Mansoura Chest Hosp. - admitted Jan 3
Jan 04 - Hamdi Mohamed Awad (8) - from the village of Abu vulnerable Bbalkas - Mansoura Chest Hosp. - admitted Jan 3
Jan 04 - Com Mahmoud Rejab (45F) - admitted Jan 3
Jan 04 - Mr. Omar Almqauri (13M) - student from Mansoura Street Abdel Salam - Mansoura Chest Hosp. - admitted Jan 3
Jan 04 - "Faith" (1) - from the village of Aldnabaiq status, Mansoura - Mansoura Chest Hosp. - admitted Jan 3


Damietta Governorate (2)

Jan 03 - Mohamed Fathi (13) - of Damietta

Jan 04 - 5 unnamed suspected cases admitted Jan 3

*A report on the Egyptian government's bf website says that "The government Damitta has taken the brunt of suspected cases." But, we only have 2 listed.


Gharbiyah/Al Gharbiyah Governorate (2 / 6-11 negatives)

NEG - Jan 01 - Hani El-Ashry - "34 years" policeman (Ali El-Ashry per flubergasted) - from the village of Ameriya, Mahala - Hospital Salt Mahala
NEG - Jan 01 - Huda Khaled (1M?) [aka Hoda Khalid Saeed] - from the village of Aldoakhilih, Mahala - Hospital Salt Mahala

Jan 02 - Sara Adel Aboushadi (child) from "My wedding procession" [Abo_ak_i Hospital pathogenesis Zfti]

Jan 03 - Aida Abdul Aziz (28F?) - from the village of Al Abualli, Mahala - Hospital Salt Mahala
NEG - Jan 03 - Ahmed Mohammed Salim (24M) - from "the Republic", Mahala - Hospital Salt Mahala
NEG? - Jan 03 - Hatem Mohammed Jamil (52M) - Mahala - Hospital Salt Mahala
NEG - Jan 03 - "Allegedly Saw" Mohammed Shihata (8 months F) - from the village of Mit Taha, Centre Mmas - Hospital Salt Mahala

Jan 04 - Six negatives reported -- 5 above? + 1 ??


Ismailia Governorate (0 / 2 negatives)

NEG - Jan 03 - SM Ezbet - Eid of the village on Eid
NEG - Jan 03 - Salma Ahmed Hussein - from the village of painted Daryll - high temperature and pneumonia, and headache


Menoufiya/Al Minufiyah Governorate (11)

Dec 30 - Nader Said Babylonian (5M) - ["Al Btanoun"] Al Batanun
Dec 30 - Ahmad Abdul Mohsen [aka Roqayya Ahmed Abdul Mohsen] (6M) - from a village "Tnbdi hamlet" ["Kafr Tunbdi"] in Shibin Al Kawm center [Kafr Tambidi?]

Dec 31 - Abdul Rahman Ibrahim (57M)
Dec 31 - Abed Rabbo (50M?)
Dec 31 - Mohammad Ferdous (36M)

Jan 01 - Adel Mohamed Adel - from [Sers Al-Layan] Sirs al Layyanah
Jan 01 - Doaa - daughter of Adel Mohamed Adel

Jan 01 - Mohamed Said Abdul Rahman - from Barhim
Jan 01 - Karim Mohamed Fawzi - from Kafr Sheikh Khalil village in Shibin Al Kawm
Jan 01 - Hamida Abdul Hafiz Rizk - Aboukls [Abu Kullus] village in the Martyrs

Jan 03 - "Hopes" Mr. Sabbagh (30F?) - from the village "Dkma" - Hospital Dietetic Shebin Mound

*Note that confirmed case Nora Aboul Abbas Mohamed above is also from Barhim, Al Minufiyah.


Minya Governorate (1)

Jan 04 - Zakaria Reham Abdel-Fattah (16F) - resident status La Hqrani place; admitted to Hospital Dietetic Menya


Kafr El-Sheikh Governorate (2)

Jan 03 - "Equity" Mohamed Hammouda (32F) - homemaker - village Smjarat Barahmanih was Hdzhma - Hospital Dietetic Kafr El-Sheikh
Jan 03 - Amal Ibrahim Ghraib (1?) - "Equity's" baby? - village Smjarat Barahmanih was Hdzhma - Hospital Dietetic Kafr El-Sheikh


Qalyubia Governorate (4 or 5)

Jan 01 - Safaa Mohamed Abdul Razek - nurse in the health unit - village of Al Alzm belonging to Shibin El Kanatar center [Shabin al Qanatir]

Jan 02 - Mohamed Talaat Mostafa Aboualfdl (3M) - in Banha Fevers - one of the 2 (3?) mentioned below?

Jan 03 - 2 (3?) new sus cases admitted to Banha Hosptial -- no names [also another report of 2 women being admitted to Banha Hospital]


Qena Governorate (3)

Jan 03 - Mohamed Khaled Adli - 4 month old child - Qena "Dietary" Hospital - high temperature

Jan 04 - Jasmine Khaled Adli (1 1/2 F) - in hospital salt Qena - sister of Mohamed above?
Jan 04 - Q. Mustafa Hussein (24F) - mother of Jasmine? - hospital salt Qena


Port Said Governorate (4)

Dec 31 - Reza Abdalmugod Abdilkadir (25M) - husband of Radwan - "Satisfaction village in south of Port Said"
Dec 31 - Radwan - wife of Reza
Dec 31 - Mohammed (9M) - son of Reza & Radwan
Dec 31 - Rajab (5M) - son of Reza & Radwan


Sharkia/Ash Sharqiyah Governorate (5 / 2 neg)

NEG - Jan 01 - Nabil Ahmed Mohamed (8M) - from the village of Hrbit belonging to Aboukbir center

Jan 02 - Samia el-Sayed Awad (55F)
Jan 02 - Menah Mohamed Fathi (3F) - granddaughter of Samia

Jan 02 - Iman Sobhi (25F)
Jan 02 - Mohamed Maher Reda - Iman's son

Jan 03 - Husam Muhammad (4M) - from the village centre Alkhis Abouhmad

NEG - Jan 04 - Hisham Salah Tawfik (4) - from village of Abu Hammad Alhanis

[Farmer]

Thank you so much Theresa42.

I am in awe of your ability to keep these names/locations interpreted and organized.

[Theresa42]

New family cluster of suspected cases:

Beheira Governorate - (6-7)

Jan 04 - Unnamed woman
Jan 04 - Unnamed woman's daughter (6 months)

[Theresa42]

3 or 4 Abdul Rahman's who might be a family cluster of suspected cases:

Dakahlia Governorate (14-16)

Jan 03 - Abdul Rahman Abdul Rahman (9M) - from the village stone pillars
Jan 03 - Imad Bader Abdul Rahman (40) - from the village stone pillars

Jan 04 - Abdul Rahman Ali Bader - Mansoura Chest Hosp.
Jan 04 - Abdul Rahman Hamadi (13M) - son of Abdul Rahman Ali Bader - Mansoura Chest Hosp.

[Theresa42]

Brother and sister (and mother?) suspected cases in Qena?:

Qena Governorate (3)

Jan 03 - Mohamed Khaled Adli - 4 month old child - Qena "Dietary" Hospital - high temperature

Jan 04 - Jasmine Khaled Adli (1 1/2 F) - in hospital salt Qena - sister of Mohamed above?
Jan 04 - Q. Mustafa Hussein (24F) - mother of Jasmine? - hospital salt Qena

[Mike32]

I posted this on the prior thread:

An Egyptian blog is claiming there was an interview with the head of Cairo University's veterinary school in the January 2 2008 edition of an Egyptian newspaper called the Daily El-Dostor. The blog claims:

I guess it is a safe assumption that if the H5N1 strain circulating in Egypt during last year's flu season had already developed Tamiflu resistance, this year's H5N1 would likely retain that same Tamiflu resistance.

[GaudiaRay]

Why is it assumed that this year would retain some of last year?

What is the process by which that occurs?

Is that random?

Is it reassortment?

Is it recombination?

Will the sequences expose this?

Can the N294S randomly disappear, like random mutationists would expect to happen?

Maybe a big reassortment will remove N294S?

Maybe a big, impossible, recominbination will replace N294S with something less of a challenge to altamiflu?

[HenryN]

Originally Posted by Mike32

I posted this on the prior thread:



I guess it is a safe assumption that if the H5N1 strain circulating in Egypt during last year's flu season had already developed Tamiflu resistance, this year's H5N1 would likely retain that same Tamiflu resistance.

Although Tamiflu resistance was in birds last season, it was rare (the only sequences were from the Gharbiya cluster - 3 fatal case, with sequences from two and both had N294S).

The recent media report indicated that it was now much more common (based on the statement that it was in "some" of the four fatal cases). If true, then more N294S could have been seen in poultry isolates collected prior to the recent cases.

However, the blog mentions resistance to a vaccine, and Tamiflu is not a vaccine.

[Mike32]

Originally Posted by niman

Although Tamiflu resistance was in birds last season, it was rare (the only sequences were from the Gharbiya cluster - 3 fatal case, with sequences from two and both had N294S).

The recent media report indicated that it was now much more common (based on the statement that it was in "some" of the four fatal cases). If true, then more N294S could have been seen in poultry isolates collected prior to the recent cases.

However, the blog mentions resistance to a vaccine, and Tamiflu is not a vac`cine.

Thanks Dr. Niman.

I have seen references to Tamiflu in Egyptian media translated as "a vaccine" twice now in the last several days. I wonder if it is a translation problem specific to Egyptian/English translations?

[HenryN]

Originally Posted by Mike32

Thanks Dr. Niman.

I have seen references to Tamiflu in Egyptian media translated as "a vaccine" twice now in the last several days. I wonder if it is a translation problem specific to Egyptian/English translations?

I haven't read the blog very thoroughly, but thought they were talking about poultry dying from bad vaccines (which of course would not be related to Tamiflu).

For whatever it is worth, no one in Egypt is talking. Tamiflu resistance would be a major problem, and if true it is a bit surprise no one else has picked up the story, so the situation there remains confused (and the lack of confirmed cases this week suggests the suspect cases are not testing positive).

[Shannon]

Dr. Niman you have touched on the subject that worries me considerably. Why is no one talking? Over 60 suspected cases and yet the news is as quiet as the grave. In this case H5N1 patients graves. Unless we start getting some news soon, I for one am going to suspect the real reason is the news is ALL bad.

[Siam]

Health Minister Warns of inaction in the face of bird flu
أعلن وزير الصحة والسكان د.حاتم الجبلى فى الكلمة التى ألقاها مدير عام الامراض المعدية بوزارة الصحة نيابة عنه د. The Minister of Health and Population d. Hatem mountain in a speech delivered by the director general of infectious diseases in the Ministry of Health Dr. behalf. عمرو قنديل فى 3 / 1 / 2008 - أمام ندوة حول "تنشيط المستجدات لعلاج حالات انفلونزا الطيور - أن المخزون الاستراتيجى من عقار "التامفلو" الخاص بعلاج مرض انفلونزا الطيور فى مصر يبلغ نحو 2.5 مليون جرعة توجد فى مخازن وزارة الصحة والسكان . Amr jellyfish 3 / 1 / 2008 - at a symposium on "Revitalization of developments for the treatment of avian influenza - that the strategic reserves of real estate" Altamflo "Special treatment of bird flu in Egypt amounts to about 2.5 million doses are in warehouses of the Ministry of Health and Population.

وطالب وزير الصحة والسكان بالعمل على اليقظة التامة .. He called on the Minister of Health and Population would vigilance .. محذرا من التراخى فى مواجهة المرض والعمل على سرعة الاكتشاف المبكر للحالات وتوفير العلاج المناسب لها فى الوقت المناسب ليتحقق الشفاء. He warned of complacency in the face of illness and work to speed early detection of cases and provide appropriate treatment in a timely manner to achieve healing.

وأشار وزير الصحة والسكان إلى أهمية دور الاعلام فى التوعية بالمرض خاصة من خلال التليفزيون حيث إن 85 فى المائة من المعلومات يحصل عليها المواطنون من التليفزيون وذلك طبقا لدراسة أجريت فى 9محافظات ..مؤكدا أهمية تكاتف الجميع وجميع الوزارات والهيئات لمواجهة المرض . The Minister of Health and Population to the importance of the role of the media in raising awareness of the disease especially through television, where 85 per cent of the information obtained by citizens of the television, according to a study conducted in 9 governorates .. He stressed the importance of concerted everyone and all ministries and departments to tackle the disease.

وأوضح أن الخط الساخن رقم ( 105 ) لغرفة العمليات الوقائية بوزارة الصحة عليه 45 خطا ويعمل على مدار 24 ساعة لتلقى الاستفسارات والمعلومات حول مرض انفلونزا الطيور. The hotline number (105) of the Chamber of preventive operations by the Ministry of Health, 45 fouls operates 24 hours to receive inquiries and information about bird flu.

وقال وزير الصحة والسكان إن الحالات المشتبه فيها تستقبلها مستشفيات الصدر والحميات والمشتشفيات العامة فى جميع محافظات الجمهورية والحالات التى تظهر نتائج التحاليل إيجابيتها يتم تحويلها لاستكمال العلاج بعقار "التامفلو" فى مستشفى الصدر العباسية بالنسبة للكبار ومستشفى منشية البكرى للاطفال. The Minister of Health and Population to suspected cases received at hospitals chest and dietary and Alm_i_viac in all governorates of the Republic, where tests show positive results to be transferred to complete treatment real estate "Altamflo" in a hospital in Sadr Abbasid for adults and Alfei Bakry Hospital for children.

وأضاف أن المعامل المركزية لوزارة الصحة قادرة على عمل التحاليل للازمة لجميع الحالات المشتبه فى اصابتها ..موضحا انه يتم حاليا عمل تشغيل تجريبى لمعمل بالاسكندرية وانشاء معمل آخر فى المنيا لمواجهة أى توقعات فى المستقبل . He added that the central laboratories of the Ministry of Health able to work analyses of the crisis for all suspected cases in her .. explaining that it is currently working operation of a pilot plant for Alexandria and the creation of another plant in Menya to cope with the expectations in the future.

وأكد الدكتور حاتم الجبلى ضرورة عدم الخوف من الابلاغ عن الطيور النافقة وعن ظهور الاصابات نتيجة لمخالطة الطيور المصابة لأن الاكتشاف المبكر للحالات سيكون له اهمية كبيرة فى الشفاء . Dr. Hatem mountain need not fear of reporting dead birds and the emergence of infections due to contact with infected birds because early detection of cases will have a great importance in the recovery.

ومن ناحية أخري أكد مستشار وزير الصحة واستاذ امراض الصدر د. On the other hand, adviser to the Minister of Health and professor of chest diseases d. عادل خطاب انه لم يحدث أى تحور للفيروس وأن ما أثير حول هذا الموضوع لا أساس له من الصحة وان الحالات تستجيب لعقار التامفلو ..مشيرا إلى أن الخمس حالات التى اكتشفت مؤخرا لسيدات خالطن الطيور المنزلية المصابة توفيت منها أربع حالات بسبب عدم ابلاغها عن مخالطتها للطيور المنزلية المصابةوالحالة الخامسة شفيت وسوف تخرج من مستشفى صدر العباسية اليوم حيث انها ابلغت عن تعاملها مع الطيور المنزلية المصابة وتم توفير العلاج اللازم لها فى الوقت المناسب. Just speech he never alter any of the virus and raised on this topic is unfounded and that the cases respond to the real estate Altamflo .. He pointed out that the five cases that were recently discovered to women Khaltun household infected birds died, including four cases due to lack of reporting of bird Mkhalttha home Almassabhoalhalh fifth recovered and will come out of hospital issued Abbasid today as they reported their dealings with infected domestic birds were provided necessary treatment in a timely manner.

وأوضح أن عدد الاصابات منذ ظهور المرض فى مصر فى مارس 2006 بلغ حتى الآن 43 حالة توفيت منها 19 حالة ..مشيرا إلى انه من بين هذه الحالات 20 طفلا توفى منهم اثنين ، و 4 رجال توفى واحد و19 سيدة توفى 16 منهن بسسب مخالطتهن المباشرة للطيور المنزلية المصابة. The number of casualties since the emergence of the disease in Egypt in March 2006 now stands at 43 cases, including 19 cases died .. He pointed out that among these cases, 20 children died of whom two died and 4 men and one woman died and 19 were 16 Mkhaltthn because of direct bird household infected.

وأكد أن معدلات الوفيات بين الاصابات البشرية فى مصر مازالت اقل من المعدلات العالميةوالتى تصل إلى نحو 62 فى المائة من الحالات بينما فى مصر تبلغ نحو 44 فى المائة فقط. He stressed that mortality rates among casualties in Egypt is still lower than the rates Almihualte amount to about 62 per cent of cases, while in Egypt amounted to about 44 per cent only.

وحذر من ان الاستمرار فى التربية المنزلية وعدم تطعيم الطيور المنزلية للخوف من دفع نفقات هى اعتقدات خاطئة حيث انه يتم تطعيم الطيور المنزلية مجانا لانها ستكون السبب فى ارتفاع معدلات الاصابة البشرية خلال العام الحالى 2008 عن العام الماضى 2007 ، والتى بلغت الاصابات به 25 حالة ، وعام 2006 والتى بلغت الاصابات به 18 حالة. He warned that the continuation of the education of household and non-vaccinated birds home for fear of paying the expenses are Atkdat wrong as it is home free influenza vaccination because it will be reason for the high incidence of mankind during the current year 2008 compared to last year 2007, which amounted to 25 cases of injuries, and the year 2006, which amounted to 18 cases of injuries.


4 / 1 / 2008 4 1 2008
http://birdflu.sis.gov.eg/ahtml/aindex.htm
_________________Please move if in wrong place.
Siam

[Shannon]

Thanks Siam

وأكد أن معدلات الوفيات بين الاصابات البشرية فى مصر مازالت اقل من المعدلات العالميةوالتى تصل إلى نحو 62 فى المائة من الحالات بينما فى مصر تبلغ نحو 44 فى المائة فقط. He stressed that mortality rates among casualties in Egypt is still lower than the rates Almihualte amount to about 62 per cent of cases, while in Egypt amounted to about 44 per cent only.

This is a case of statistics being used to deliberately mislead. New cases have a CFR at, or above, Indonesia or other current infections. The current Egyptian cases are well above 62% CFR.

[HenryN]

Updated map

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UT...8&t=h&z=8&om=0

[Shannon]

Dr. Niman, how close are the pins to the exact location of the outbreaks? In the same town or, general area or, right down to the home address? (If the address is even available which I very much doubt.) I ask because some of the pins lie in locations within towns, while others are in what appear to be empty fields. I am trying to get a visual idea of clustering.

[HenryN]

Originally Posted by Shannon

Dr. Niman, how close are the pins to the exact location of the outbreaks? In the same town or, general area or, right down to the home address? (If the address is even available which I very much doubt.) I ask because some of the pins lie in locations within towns, while others are in what appear to be empty fields. I am trying to get a visual idea of clustering.

The last line in the description gives the detal, which usually is just the governorate.

[HenryN]

Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01...lizations.html

[Siam]

Concern as more Egyptians catch bird flu

http://www.egyptiangazette.net.eg/

Ashraf Sadek Staff reporter


With the onset of the winter season, there has been an increase in suspected cases of the lethal avian flu virus H5N1 among fowl and humans in Egypt.Until yesterday,



16 Egyptians are suspected to have been infected with bird flu in the Governorates of el-Beheira, el-Mansoura, Ismailia, Qena and Meniya, Ministry of Health officials said, just three days after four women died from the pathogenic virus.

Since bird flu was detected among fowl in Egypt in February 2006, millions of birds have been culled under the Ministry's supervision, mostly in poultry farms.

The infected 16 persons were hospitalised after showing initial bird flu symptoms, the officials said. The patients, they added, continued to have contacts with sick or dead household birds despite a ban since the H5N1 virus had been detected in Egypt in mid-February 2006.

Tests are underway as a precautionary measure, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The 16 persons are kept in isolation and have been treated with the anti-viral Tamiflu drug.

Preventive measures have been taken and samples were taken from poultry raised at their homes before the birds were killed, the officials said. The houses and chicken coops were disinfected.Meanwhile, health and environment authorities struggled yesterday to enforce preventive measures against bird flu nationwide.While monitoring compliance with Government measures in poultry farms, the officials insist that there is no real cause for concern regarding an outbreak among humans.

A Ministry of Agriculture official in charge of poultry infections said the rising figures were expected because the people did not respect instructions from the authorities.“They consider poultry capital and do not think about their health,” he complained.“Each additional human case gives the virus an opportunity to improve its transmission in humans,” the official warned.

Health Minister Dr Hatem el-Gabali has warned that his Ministry would take “more serious” penal actions against violators.El-Gabali warned against “slackness in the preventive measures taken to fight bird flu especially as winter approaches.”Experts believe the Government has not done enough and tends to react rather than act.

Talaat Khatib, a professor of food hygiene at Assiut University in southern Egypt, said that the Government awareness campaign was “not comprehensive enough”."Most doctors can't even recognise the symptoms of bird flu on a human being," he told The Gazette by phone.

Where available, chicken, the meat many Egyptians used to eat most regularly, is selling at LE13 per kg ($2.40). Chicken consumption is expected to go down.In response, the demand for fish and beef has risen ever faster, shopkeepers told the paper yesterday.Egypt has been tackling an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the Nile Delta for the last two to three weeks and this has already put pressure on beef and milk supplies

[Siam]

Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:28 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Suspected cases of bird flu crop up all over Egypt
Here you go Corn, Pixie got it.
By Yasmine Saleh
First Published: January 4, 2008
http://www.dailystaregypt.com/articl...rticleID=11159

CAIRO: Hospitals nationwide reportedly quarantined more human cases suspected of being infected with the H5N1 bird flu virus.

According to Al-Masry Al-Youm newspaper, Damietta — where the latest Bird Flu victim Hanem Atwa Ibrahim, 50, died late on Monday Dec. 31 in a Cairo hospital — hosts the largest number of cases with five people suspected of carrying the virus, while the Upper Egyptian city of Qena came next, with two cases, followed by El-Beheira with one case.

The outbreak triggered a huge campaign, led by Egypt’s Food Inspection Agency in Alexandria locate infected poultry that transfers the virus. About 1,600 infected chickens were diagnosed and culled in the process.

On Monday the Ministry of Health reported the death of a fourth bird flu case in less than a week, bringing the total of bird flu deaths in Egypt to 19 and the number of Egyptian cases overall to 43.

Last week Menufiya resident Fardous Mohamed Hadad, 36, died at the hospital where she was admitted two days earlier suffering high fever and breathing difficulty, ministry spokesman Abdel Rahman Shahin said in a statement carried by the official Mena news agency.

On Sunday Fatma Fathi Mohammed, 25, from the Nile Delta province of Daqahliya died of the disease.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said earlier this year that countries around the world had improved in their resistance to bird flu, but the situation remains critical in Egypt and Indonesia where the risk of the H5N1 virus mutating into a major human threat remains high.

Egypt’s location on major bird migration routes and the widespread practice of keeping domestic fowl near living quarters have led to its being the hardest-hit country outside Asia.

International health experts have been dispatched to Pakistan to help investigate the cause of South Asia’s first human bird flu cases and determine if the virus could have been transmitted from person to person, according to a WHO official.
_________________
Siam

[sharon sanders]

Thanks Siam!

[Theresa42]

Originally Posted by Mike32

Thanks Dr. Niman.

I have seen references to Tamiflu in Egyptian media translated as "a vaccine" twice now in the last several days. I wonder if it is a translation problem specific to Egyptian/English translations?

There've been instances from all sorts of countries in which people -- even health authorities -- refer to Tamiflu as a vaccine, which is obviously very misleading.

The Egyptian media/some Egyptian authorities might, indeed, be referring to Tamiflu as a vaccine -- to be honest, I haven't really been paying attention to that in the latest news stories. Then again, it could be something getting "lost in translation" with the machine-translators.

If you'd like, I can double-check the translations using the "better" machine-translator (sakhr.com) and an Arabic-English dictionary (lingvozone.com) -- just gimme a link to an article in question.

[Theresa42]

Doubts about Anti-Bird Flu Vaccine Validity, Suspected Human Infections Increased

By Metwalli Salim, Omar al-Sheikh, Hamdy Qassim, Yasser Shmis, and Abdullah Mostafa 5/1/2008

Ministry of Agriculture sources and a number of agricultural experts and veterinarians unveiled that there are serious doubts about the validity of veterinary vaccines imported by private vaccine and serum companies and used to immunize poultry in Egyptian farms.

They called for tightening control over procedures of import and handling of vaccines through immunization.

The sources confirmed that many of these companies import cheap veterinary vaccines that do not conform to standards for the benefit of what they described as the 'Mafia of Vaccines'.

On the other hand, Dutch media reported that a vaccine against bird flu virus has been developed, noting that extensive tests conducted on the vaccine, which was developed by the British pharmaceutical firm GSK, in the laboratories of the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam showed that the vaccine offers protection against not only the H5N1 virus but several other bird flu viruses that occur worldwide.

In terms of the spread of the virus in Egypt, Beni Suef and Sohag fever hospitals yesterday received 16 cases suspected of being infected with bird flu virus, including 9 women and girls and 6 children. Blood samples of the suspected cases were sent to the central labs of the Health Ministry for analysis to verify the infection.

Beheira governor Mohamed Sharawi issued a decree the day before last preventing the entry of birds into the province and imposing a L.E. 500 fine on each poultry-loaded car seized inside or outside the province without permission from the veterinary medicine.

In Menoufiya, Governor Hassan Hamida instructed the municipalities to educate the public through loudspeakers about the dangers of contacting with live birds for the sake of public health.

http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/articl...rticleID=88983

[Theresa42]

"Man-on-the-street" interviews with people selling/concealing poultry. Also, a bit about people smuggling poultry between governorates (usually during the night accd'g to the article).

Google-translated from Arabic:

End of the truce between avian influenza and Egyptians
5/1/2008

Darren achieve Farghali, Maha Al-Bahnasawi Wahba Abdel Hamid on Zalat - Hisham Allam

Despite all the warnings by experts from the return of bird flu in Egypt, last week witnessed the largest number of casualties with the beginning of the third winter of endemic in Egypt: 4 Ladies Bsitat Varguen life, and the incidence reached the 44 cases died, including 19.

With hospitals receiving dietary Abbasiyah in the governorates and dozens of suspected infected every day .. the return of bird flu in a ferocious not represent a surprise in itself, because the virus already endemic in Egypt, but statements Amin Abaza, and Minister of Agriculture, which acknowledged the ministry's inaction during the summer months in the virus was the real surprise.

With the onset of winter, returned to the danger threatening the wealth estimated at 17 billion pounds, where 5 million citizens. . Claimed the disease kills First Bdjajat ordinary people and capital position, then I go to harvest laborers .. "Egypt today" [the newspaper] open the file of the return of bird flu, and monitor manifestations of smuggling and trading of live birds, and the absence of control on the market.

Sellers of live birds ignore government warnings and say: "for Oukadna at home .. Imotwa our children from hunger."

In the market Thursday - months markets selling live birds Afterc sellers Chicks and ducks and geese and their Aagafasm sidewalks market, and all of them took place in indifferent warnings [from the Dept of] Health considered by most a mere rumours. The others did not find a source of income other than the sale of these birds living within the market, to spend on their families, which will collapse - as saying if the government decided to declare war on them.

"We constituency with the Chicks and Hsalc us anything" .. This is what Abu Mohamed - chicks popular seller in the market Thursday - as he sleeps with land and municipal Balafrak cage full of living brought him to the market, cage Chicks, which places him directly Abu Mohammed is the source of livelihood of which spent six sons and that the sale is the Chicks The only thing we inherited from the father.

Abu Mohammed says: "I bought one of the Chicks small traders in Banha, after giving me the delivery of the secretariat to do I make value after the sale, but Maxbi in one cage no more than 20 pounds, and our profession is now 'profession risks', we exposed from time to time for inspection campaigns carried out by the Government, which always results in either imprisonment or confiscation Chicks."

Fifty years did not prevent them from carrying cage Chicks over her head for moving between different markets, but today in the market Thursday was sitting in the place in which it is used and put black scarf over the cage Chicks anticipation of the passage of men inspections, hours of terror or spend Khaled was sitting on one of sidewalks call vote, which forced many of the appeal

Saying: "My sweet chicks and breeding Betty" dismayed, right and left for fear that surprises them confiscated Chicks hiding inside the cage to govern so to death a family of 7 members, is the sole breadwinner, especially after her husband suffered stroke in his barred him from working, says Or Jack: "Chicks Mandhash flu and I do not know the government work us like LES."

Umm Khalid cage next to sit or good to the cage full of Etakit small, it may not exceed the gain or good husband in one of those chicks "quarter pounds", but in spite of that insists every morning to go to a market stretched to the ground in front of the cage and wait until begins its customers, who are accustomed to it, in the coming one after the other, say, or good: "case and stand days States and Zubain not like I", although this did not lose my client who, quite trust me,

But I put my hand on my heart, for fear that someone takes chicks, especially I help my husband who works in a factory cloth on the living conditions of Fratbh DD 300 pounds per month, and this sum of the seven Ajkovina and our children. Or add a good saying: "if the government do not work closely Amanana Tcolna any work for if we fail in the House Hnmut us and our children from hunger."

"No need called bird flu, the government Give us Ptharbena in eating our livelihood" .. Thus began Abu Mahmoud - chicken seller - modern When asked him about the fear of bird flu, saying: "twenty years ago and I chicks seller, I am the education on the roof of my house.

Thank God my health, like Jasmine, did not accept while anything which claimed the government, and is also known that the government Ptharbena in our livelihood, although we heard about bird flu since 6 years; did not stop for one day from breeding birds which is the only source of our livelihood, but what is impressed by the customer I let him come Bejav market all heard about new infections."

"If the disease is already likely to my children and I years ago" .. This is confirmed Umm Ahmed One vendors Chicks and ducks market Thursday sitting in front of a cage of chicks and another for Ducklings, where she said: "I live in a simple room my husband and I and my children four, along with some birds that I Nstrozk the education and either selling them or consume, even if bird flu already exist, for you are all birds that we share bed."

"Let in life want to eat live, so live off you, the reason why we got to theft and crime, because Pthrmona of halal job, you sure of the inspection" .. All of those expressions, accusations and sent us one of vendors Once we approach them, they cover cages Chicks Bmlabsaa, fearing the passage of the inspection commission, although our emphasis has several times we "not followed government" but they continued to scream saying "fear of God in us, Henrbi Aina Do."

Poultry producers admit lax in the fight against bird flu .. and the market is witnessing a war rumours after injury farms adult

Winter third of the bird flu in Egypt .. But hit a record in the number and Vyate .. one week claimed the lives of four women, and resumed activity after the deadly virus latency period during the summer as more innocent victims.

New bird flu problem this year is that the injuries were not limited to small producers, many of the big producers proved laboratory tests, virus infection their herds, and birds were secretly .. For their part poultry producers warned of the consequences of failure, which occurred during the last period in the action against the disease, which is recognized by Engineer Amin Abaza, and Minister of Agriculture, and at the same time does not infringe on the responsibility side of the default.

Recognizes Dr. Mohamed El-Shafei, Vice Chairman of the General Federation had been some abuses of educators "who conduct them in a non-disciplined" and at the same time emphasizing that the position is still under control despite the intensity of incidence in a large number of farms in the last period, the spread in geographic scope and scale.

Talk to former Vice President of the Russian reveals an aspect of war rumors, which started two weeks ago as the emergence of injuries in the farms and producers of older companies, which affects their reputations in the market.

These rumors did not avail Shafei, and also recognizes that the emergence of the disease in areas previously vaccinated should prompt the government to reconsider the circulation of vaccine, the method of immunization "because it is clear that some players were not fortifications [vaccinated]."

Despite this show Shafei some unease, and why - from his point of view - that, until this moment, did not prove that the virus may alter, and thus "she is surrounded illness became significant", if activation procedures and preventive precautions are not followed through summer period, and most important of preserving the distances between farms by 500 meters, and the circulation of vaccines properly ..

It also demands that the Vice President of the Federation of producers that govern state control over the purchase and handling of vaccines, and to pass legislation to ensure thorough supervision from the government to import bird flu vaccines, in order to ensure the efficiency of vaccines.

Mr. Dr. Abdel Aziz, Chief of the Division of poultry wealth Cairo Chamber of Commerce and the government refuses to hold sole responsibility for inaction that has occurred, and emphasizes the shared responsibility between the Ministry of Agriculture and producers from returning fierce avian influenza this year.

Abdul Aziz confirms that many small producers are conducting the necessary tests, and finds that they have three reasons pushing them to escape the periodic analysis in the central laboratories of Veterinary Medicine in Cairo, the first of the distance between the governorates-intensive production in the Delta and Port Said and Ismailia, and the factor analysis Cairo, which constitutes a burden on small producers in shouldering the expenses go to Cairo with each cycle of production testing,

The second reason that the cost analysis of up to 500 pounds per farm, and small producers can not afford the result is a direct flight from the analysis, and the last of these reasons is the high Asarvat with low selling prices, which threatens the exit of many small producers from the market.

Eng Mahmoud Anani, a senior poultry producers expected a marked improvement in the coming weeks in the fight against bird flu with the return of the seriousness of the farms and producers Iqbal fortifications necessary to conduct timely assessments.

And because of the high rate of injuries unmatched in the last period to complacency, which occurred after the good performance over the past year in dealing with the crisis, and shows "result of the case reassuring after the summer free of avian influenza infections, wavered this year many farms in immunization procedures, but with escalating crisis again returned commitment to each farm and became interested in immunization and safety vital."

Only the coming days will prove the validity of some optimism imminent decline of the third wave of avian influenza, or mortality rates continued to rise.

Smuggling of poultry are among the second five o'clock .. on the way for a parallel "Egypt - Alexandria agricultural"

The study by the Centre for Information and Decision Support, of the Council of Ministers that, despite the decline of bird flu since the beginning in 2007, the share of Egypt's total cases that occurred in the world this year of about 44%.

The study pointed out that the proportion of families nursemaid bird in rural Egypt about 86%, as these families depend entirely dependent on the purpose of breeding birds as a major source of self-consumption of animal protein and generate additional income, while the rich families, which is a small percentage of raising birds, and therefore the more affected by the bird flu are poor Egypt.

As for the economic damage the study says that the total birds have been culled injury is the result of 34.4 million birds, valued at about 977.3 million pounds.

The largest proportion of losses resulting from the executions of white chickens in the farms, homes and chicken fattening, and decreased exports of poultry from 41.7 million pounds in 2004 to 1.6 million pounds in 2006, a decline that reached about 96%

And poultry prices rose markedly but declined after the drop in the relatively disease, but again rise since January 2007 to date, with an average kilo grams of poultry 8 pounds in 2005 and increased to 12 pounds in 2006 and dropped to 10.5 in March 2007.

Since the emergence of the disease so far issued by the Minister of Agriculture 7 resolutions banning ban the transfer and sale of live birds between provincial and imported from abroad and prevent circulation in the market, and developed requirements and specifications of particular massacres.

As witnessed in 2007 the last draft republican decree on the regulation and sale of poultry, but that so far not shown legislation criminalizes the transfer and sale of live birds during the spread of the disease, which made plantation owners resort to various tricks to smuggle birds.

When I tried "Egypt Today" monitor these trips hidden, we discovered that it is always done at night, and should begin the journey after two o'clock and ending fifth before dawn, a period in which less "ambushes" [random checks or check points] agricultural traffic on the roads, either in the event of non-completion of the long distance flight The driver resort to a village until the following night comes another person in the car owners of limited quantities of fodder to feed poultry.

"Ambushes" traffic on the Cairo-Alexandria agricultural road drivers known to appear .. I at the entrance to the city "attach", and the second bridge before "Berkat", or after the end of a bridge "cows". This, of course, coming to Cairo hand, so some drivers resort to the path parallel to the road agricultural begins with the city "Berkat" and ends after an ambush "attach"; To ensure "payload" be briefed "cages" poultry cell bee, or transfer cars "sand" large covered.

All these difficulties prices rose transport borne by the owners of the farms in an attempt to save what can be saved and exit less losses.

http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/articl...rticleID=88923

[Theresa42]

Google-translated from Arabic:

Hassan Hamida: ambushes of security at all ports Menoufiya to cope with the march of the virus .. And tighten procedures on farms

Wrote Mitwalli Salem 5/1/2008

The General Hassan Hamida "governor Menoufiya, a member of the Supreme Committee for the control of avian influenza" decides that the deployment of ambushes fixed and mobile [random checks/check points] various outlets maintain with the rest of the neighbouring provinces to meet the Marching bird flu, and to make sure permits transfer and circulation of live birds within Menoufiya and free of the disease.

He said Hamida, told "Egyptian Today" following the end of the Higher Committee meetings to combat the disease, which was held at the Ministry of Agriculture yesterday, it was decided to tighten procedures for veterinary poultry farms and rural education and to make sure immunizations for the various types of birds, pointing out that the formation of a technical committee to follow-up immunization these farms.

He added: Decided to entrust the education of local citizens risk contact birds, in the interest of public health, through the passage of these devices to all the villages of the province to educate its population using loudspeakers, symptoms of the disease and the need for immediate reporting of any cases of suspected infection, and deal with all cases absolute transparency.

The governor of Menoufiya that will be periodic traffic to stores that sell live birds to ascertain the source, with the necessary sampling of birds of unknown origin that is seized to make sure that they are free from disease before slaughter Anflonzataior and poultry abattoir at the earliest, stressing the importance of coordination between the departments of agriculture and veterinary medicine and health and local authorities to take immediate action to contain the disease and curb.

He stressed that the mandate of the concerned departments to prepare a report on the situation of the disease and fight to take quick action to control it, pointing out that it had been decided to declare a state of emergency in various hospitals in the province to receive all cases of suspected infection and rapid transportation to hospitals and specialized pleased sampling and analysis to speed treatment and combating disease.

http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/articl...rticleID=88947

[Theresa42]

Don't seem to be any reports of suspected cases today -- but then Saturday in Egypt is like Sunday here. Day off for everybody. That's why the stories are pretty long today, too -- "Sunday paper" sort of reading.

[HenryN]

Originally Posted by Theresa42

Doubts about Anti-Bird Flu Vaccine Validity, Suspected Human Infections Increased

By Metwalli Salim, Omar al-Sheikh, Hamdy Qassim, Yasser Shmis, and Abdullah Mostafa 5/1/2008

In terms of the spread of the virus in Egypt, Beni Suef and Sohag fever hospitals yesterday received 16 cases suspected of being infected with bird flu virus, including 9 women and girls and 6 children. Blood samples of the suspected cases were sent to the central labs of the Health Ministry for analysis to verify the infection.

http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/articl...rticleID=88983

Any other papers talking about the above jump in cases in these regions which are more to the south?

[HenryN]

Originally Posted by Theresa42

Don't seem to be any reports of suspected cases today -- but then Saturday in Egypt is like Sunday here. Day off for everybody. That's why the stories are pretty long today, too -- "Sunday paper" sort of reading.

The jump in Sohag / Beni Suef is pretty dramatic. Not much activity there previously

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UT...,11.096191&z=6

[HenryN]

Commentary at

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01...ead_South.html

[AlaskaDenise]

Originally Posted by niman

Commentary at

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01...ead_South.html

Commentary

Jump in Suspect H5N1 Cases in Southern Egypt

Recombinomics Commentary 11:38
January 5, 2008

In terms of the spread of the virus in Egypt, Beni Suef and Sohag fever hospitals yesterday received 16 cases suspected of being infected with bird flu virus, including 9 women and girls and 6 children. Blood samples of the suspected cases were sent to the central labs of the Health Ministry for analysis to verify the infection.

The above translation describes a dramatic jump in hospital admissions in southern regions. Although the first confirmed case of the season was in Beni Suef, and confirmed cases were reported there a year ago, the recent admissions in the southern cities has been limited (see satellite map). These new additions represent a trend of daily increases in admissions.

However, there have been no announcements of new confirmed cases in the past week. A small number of earlier admissions has been declared negative, but further information on the earlier cases has not been cited in local media.

More information on test results from these hospitalized suspect bird flu cases would be useful.


.