Science paper: The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

FluBossie · #1 April 20th, 2008, 09:21 PM

The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses

Colin A. Russell,1 Terry C. Jones,1,2,3 Ian G. Barr,4 Nancy J. Cox,5 Rebecca J. Garten,5 Vicky Gregory,6 Ian D. Gust,4 Alan W. Hampson,4 Alan J. Hay,6 Aeron C. Hurt,4 Jan C. de Jong,2 Anne Kelso,4 Alexander I. Klimov,5 Tsutomu Kageyama,7 Naomi Komadina,4 Alan S. Lapedes,8 Yi P. Lin,6 Ana Mosterin,1,3 Masatsugu Obuchi,7 Takato Odagiri,7 Albert D. M. E. Osterhaus,2 Guus F. Rimmelzwaan,2 Michael W. Shaw,5 Eugene Skepner,1 Klaus Stohr,9 Masato Tashiro,7 Ron A. M. Fouchier,2 Derek J. Smith1,2*

Antigenic and genetic analysis of the hemagglutinin of 13,000 human influenza A (H3N2) viruses from six continents during 2002–2007 revealed that there was continuous circulation in east and Southeast Asia (E-SE Asia) via a region-wide network of temporally overlapping epidemics and that epidemics in the temperate regions were seeded from this network each year. Seed strains generally first reached Oceania, North America, and Europe, and later South America. This evidence suggests that once A (H3N2) viruses leave E-SE Asia, they are unlikely to contribute to long-term viral evolution. If the trends observed during this period are an accurate representation of overall patterns of spread, then the antigenic characteristics of A (H3N2) viruses outside E-SE Asia may be forecast each year based on surveillance within E-SE Asia, with consequent improvements to vaccine strain selection.

1 Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
2 Department of Virology, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
3 Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain.
4 World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Melbourne, Australia.
5 WHO Collaborating Center for Influenza, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
6 WHO Collaborating Centre for Influenza, National Institute for Medical Research (NIMR), London, UK.
7 WHO Collaborating Center for Influenza, National Institute for Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan.
8 Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA.
9 Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics, Cambridge, MA, USA.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: dsmith@zoo.cam.ac.uk

Read the Full Text
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/conten...t/320/5874/340

FluBossie · #2 April 20th, 2008, 09:30 PM

Flu Viruses Take One-way Ticket Out Of Asia, Then Travel The World

ScienceDaily (Apr. 17, 2008) — Seasonal influenza strains constantly evolve in overlapping epidemics in Asia and sweep the rest of the world each year, an international research team has found.

These findings suggest that by focusing surveillance efforts on East and Southeast Asia, researchers may be able to extend their forecast of the flu strains most likely to cause epidemics, which may in turn help experts decide which strains should go in the flu vaccine each year.

The study, by a team of researchers from Europe, Australia, Japan and the United States, appears in the 18 April issue of the journal Science.

"The flu virus is constantly mutating, so it's a major challenge for public health as well as a fascinating example of evolution in action. This study advances our knowledge of how new flu strains spread across the globe and how epidemics arise," said Katrina Kelner, Science's deputy managing editor, life sciences.

Colin Russell of the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom and his colleagues analyzed 13,000 samples of influenza A (H3N2) virus, collected across six continents from 2002 to 2007 by the World Health Organization Global Influenza Surveillance Network. This subtype of influenza is currently the major cause of flu-related illness and death in humans.

The researchers compared physical differences in a surface protein, called hemagglutinin, across the different samples. Hemagglutinin is the primary target of the immune response, and even small changes can allow the virus to evade the immune system and cause disease.

In a subset of the samples, the researchers also compared the sequences of the gene that codes for hemagglutinin.

Together, these analyses allowed the researchers to identify different strains of A (H3N2) as they arrived at new locations around the world over the five-year period. The results revealed that strains emerge in East and Southeast Asia and then about six to nine months later reach Europe and North America. Several months later still, the strains arrive in South America. Essentially, once the strains leave East and Southeast Asia they enter an evolutionary graveyard.

"The ultimate goal of our collaboration is to increase our ability to predict the evolution of influenza viruses. This study is one step along that path and in particular highlights the importance of ongoing collaborations and surveillance in East and Southeast Asia, and of expanding these collaborations in the future," said Derek Smith of the University of Cambridge, who is the corresponding author of the study.

Annual influenza epidemics are thought to result in 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and between 250,000 and 500,000 deaths every year, according to the World Health Organization.

A (H3N2) is a subtype of the influenza A virus, and it is one of the three flu viruses included -- in dead or in a weakened state -- in the flu vaccine. The others are the influenza A (H1N1) subtype and the influenza B virus. Each year, the World Health Organization decides which strains within these three categories to include in the next vaccine, based on the recent activity of strains that are currently circulation.

The authors emphasized that the flu vaccine currently works extremely well, protecting about 300 million people from the disease each year, and that people should continue to be vaccinated annually. But, from time to time, a new strain begins infecting people after the vaccine has already been produced.

For decades, researchers haven't known how influenza viruses migrate around the world. According to some of the scenarios that have been proposed, the viruses may migrate between the Northern and Southern hemispheres following the seasons, or they may have come out of the tropics where they were thought to circulate continuously, or they may have come out of China.

The Science study shows instead that each year since 2002, influenza A (H3N2) viruses have migrated out of what the authors call the "East and Southeast Asian circulation network," and from there spread around the world.

Why Asia" For reasons that aren't well-understood, flu epidemics break out during the rainy seasons in the tropics of East and Southeast Asia. On continents at higher latitudes, on the other hand, flu season simply occurs for a few months during the wintertime. Within Asia, different regions experience the rainy season at different times of year.

"Flu epidemics appear to be driven by seasonal factors such as winter, or rainy seasons. So there can be cities that are only 700 miles away from each other, such as Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur, which have epidemics six months apart. There is a lot of variability like this in East and Southeast Asia, so lots of opportunity for an epidemic in one country to seed an epidemic to another nearby country, like a baton passed by runners in a relay race," Smith said.

"Our study is an example of the tremendous synergy between influenza science and public health," he said. "The World Health Organization's Global Influenza Surveillance Network tracks the evolution of influenza viruses for the primary purpose of influenza vaccine strain selection, but this also enables basic work on evolution."

"The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses," by C.A. Russell; T.C. Jones; A, Mosterin; E. Skepner; D.J. Smith at University of Cambridge in Cambridge, UK; T.C. Jones; J.C. de Jong; A.D.M.E. Osterhaus; G.F. Rimmelzwaan; R.A.M. Fouchier; D.J. Smith at Erasmus Medical Centre in Rotterdam, Netherlands; T.C. Jones; A. Mosterin at Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona, Spain; I.G. Barr; N.J. Cox; R.J. Garten; V. Gregory; I.D. Gust; A.W. Hampson; A.J. Hay; A.C. Hurt; A. Kelso; A.I. Klimov; T. Kageyama; N. Komadina; Y.P. Lin; M. Obuchi; T. Odagiri; M.W. Shaw; M. Tashiro at World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne, VIC, Australia; N.J. Cox; R.J. Garten; A.I. Kilmov; M.W. Shaw at Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, GA; V. Gregory; A.J. Hay; Y.P. Lin at National Institute for Medical Research in London, UK; T. Kageyama; M. Obuchi; T. Odagiri; M. Tashiro at National Institute for Infectious Diseases in Tokyo, Japan; A.S. Lapedes at Los Alamos National Laboratory in Los Alamos, NM; K. Stohr at Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics in Boston, MA.

This study was funded by the National Institutes of Health Director's Pioneer Award, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the NWO Netherlands Influenza Vaccine Research Centre, the Australian Government Department of Health and Aging, and the Medical Research Council.

Adapted from materials provided by American Association for the Advancement of Science.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0416141011.htm

gsgs · #3 April 21st, 2008, 01:20 AM

also here:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=64893

28 authors ! They must have known this since months, years.
I.e. when the other papers came out, about the Danish sequences,
about the NZ+AUS+USA - sequences
about the NZ+US sequences http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=64760
But they were not allowed to talk about it earlier in public ?!

I feel, that the groups should better cooperate,
I feel, that they should give preliminary infos before
the final papers appear.

Can a pandemic start in Africa or Europe or America or Indonesia ?
Did the 1918 pandemic also start in SE-Asia ?
Is it the Monsun rain that creates pandemics ?
Do we always have 6 months ?
Does flu in America,Europe always die ? Aren't there any polymorphisms
or reassortments which can be tracked to America and which survive several seasons ?

Birdflu apparantly is different, Qinghai-strain , Indonesian strain evolve
outside SE-Asia

not much discussion here,
is this beeing discussed on other boards,letters,conferences,papers ?

gsgs · #4 April 21st, 2008, 02:44 AM

that means, that before there was travel by ship from Europe
to Eastern Asia, around 1600, there was no influenza in Europe.

The 1580-pandemic was recently suspected to have been pertussis,
not influenza.

year
contagiousness-category
number of waves
locations
-when and where started
[-serotype]

influenza before 1600:

-412 ? ? Eu
-212 ? ? Eu(Achrodina?)
+855 ? ? Persia,central Asia (Ebn-al-Atir)
1173 1 ? Eu
1200-1500 [7]
1403 ? ? F
1427
1494 3 ? Am
1510 2 ? Af,Eu
1557 1 ? Eu,Jp - Jul
1580 3 ? Eu,Af,nA - Jun Af,As

gsgs · #5 April 21st, 2008, 02:52 AM

that would be bad news, because it means that our historical
experiences with pandemics go back only 400 years.

And the argument
that something really bad such as 1918 or worse didn't happen
before in human history is less valid.

tropical · #6 April 21st, 2008, 08:24 AM

"our historical experiences with pandemics go back only 400 years."

Can it be scientificaly extracted by the archeological mass graves remains from more ancient epoques what kind of illness was exactly plaguing them?

A virus (flu) maybe can be ident. from the remains by modern science from more ancient times also?

If yes, the results of studies that isolated such virus from more ancient periods are reacheable?

Snowy Owl · #7 April 21st, 2008, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tropical

"our historical experiences with pandemics go back only 400 years."

Can it be scientificaly extracted by the archeological mass graves remains from more ancient epoques what kind of illness was exactly plaguing them?

A virus (flu) maybe can be ident. from the remains by modern science from more ancient times also?

If yes, the results of studies that isolated such virus from more ancient periods are reacheable?

Iceland would be a perfect site, but thebn again we know that they have been visited by VIkings since the 800d.

They came with Eric le Rouge in Vinland back around 960. First Nations of the Norther East Coast still have historical artifacts of this.

But no records if the Vikings infected us with some diseases.

gsgs · #8 April 21st, 2008, 08:39 AM

we can best see this from reports of doctors,
describing the diseases,symptoms and spread.

However, as we know it's difficult to diagnose influenza
and PCR or blood-examining confirm/disproof the diagnosis
with 50%

But pandemics are typical and should identify flu.

Well, 1580 was a pandemic, but flu or pertussis ?

gsgs · #9 April 21st, 2008, 10:01 AM

what's the difference between antigenic and genetic - evolution/analysis ?

I remember a recent paper about flu in Brasil,
which reports flu traveling from the northern hemisphere
to the southern hemisphere and back

this doesn't so well fit with the picture that it is seeded
newly from Asia each season.

HenryN · #10 April 21st, 2008, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gsgs

what's the difference between antigenic and genetic - evolution/analysis ?

I remember a recent paper about flu in Brasil,
which reports flu traveling from the northern hemisphere
to the southern hemisphere and back

this doesn't so well fit with the picture that it is seeded
newly from Asia each season.

Antigenic looks at antigens.

gsgs · #11 April 21st, 2008, 10:15 AM

GenBank EU501119 to EU502618 and EU514616 to EU514683
1499+67

not (yet) there

about 4600 H3N2 - HAs at genbank , so what's special about these
1500 from the paper ?

The problem is, we usually only have the year, not the month.
So the traveling is hard to follow

HenryN · #12 April 21st, 2008, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gsgs

GenBank EU501119 to EU502618 and EU514616 to EU514683
1499+67

not (yet) there

about 4600 H3N2 - HAs at genbank , so what's special about these
1500 from the paper ?

They have been withheld.

HenryN · #13 April 21st, 2008, 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gsgs

GenBank EU501119 to EU502618 and EU514616 to EU514683
1499+67

not (yet) there

about 4600 H3N2 - HAs at genbank , so what's special about these
1500 from the paper ?

The problem is, we usually only have the year, not the month.
So the traveling is hard to follow

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gsgs · #14 April 21st, 2008, 11:01 AM

do they give the isolation dates ?
-----------------------
antigenic = protein-sequences
genetic = nucleotide-sequences
---------------------------

I think whole genome analysis should be done.
Much more opportunity to detect emergence of new
polymorphisms, new variants.

Also : reassortment provides the opportunity to exactly
locate one strain, its predecessors and progenies.
A reassorted strain is a new beginning and can be tracked
better than the continuously evolving segments.

I hypothize that most reassortments happen in SE-Asia
and that could be the reason for the observed pattern ?!?

HenryN · #15 April 21st, 2008, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gsgs

do they give the isolation dates ?
-----------------------
antigenic = protein-sequences
genetic = nucleotide-sequences
---------------------------

I think whole genome analysis should be done.
Much more opportunity to detect emergence of new
polymorphisms, new variants.

Also : reassortment provides the opportunity to exactly
locate one strain, its predecessors and progenies.
A reassorted strain is a new beginning and can be tracked
better than the continuously evolving segments.

I hypothize that most reassortments happen in SE-Asia
and that could be the reason for the observed pattern ?!?

These are not reassortment issues. They are looking at how GENES evolve, not constellations of genes. Reassortment does NOT change a gene sequence (or create antigenic variation). You are operating under a MAJOR misconception.

This paper focuses on antigenic variation. Too much data (from a genetic analysis) destroys the model.

These stories have a longer shelf life in the absence of data.

gsgs · #16 April 22nd, 2008, 02:54 AM

antigenic data doesn't say much about the evolution.
80% of mutations are synonymous and thus missed by antigenic analysis.

Most of the data is 2002-2006, they don't have 2007 yet, let alone 2008.
This period was disturbed by the appearance of the Fujian strain ,
especially in HA, so, the spreading pattern is even harder to see.

I haven't seen the pictures and tables, but I don't feel so
strongly about their conclusions yet.

It would be useful to have a few genomes at least each year from
South America, China, Africa, Europe.

More suitable to study the evolution seems to be the
H3N2-genome data 1993-2007 from USA which well covers each
year, except a few H1N1-years.
This data is better distributed over time and covers the whole genome,
not only HA1. OTOH it's only USA.

One idea is to examine each polymorphism, each change from
Udorn/72 separately. Where it first appeared before it
became established in a substrain. Then make a statistics
of the timing within the year.

One idea is to examine all sequence-pairs and calculate the
time of their common anchestor. If most such anchestors
of USA-sequences are dated in summer, then they probably were
seeded from the Southern Hemisphere.
I implemented it for 800 US-genomes, see the picture here:
http://magictour.free.fr/panflu/h3anch1.gif

I haven't examined it yet, but I guess, the large peaks in summer 1996,1997
are from the Fujian strain in 2003, whose last common anchestor with
the co-circulating normal,old H3N2 was calculated to have lived in 1996
----ahh, no. 2003-1996 is more than 4 years, so this should have been excluded

-----------------------------

full H3N2-genomes from genbank, November-April isolates 1993-2007 in USA:

average distance between 2 H3N2-viruses in consecutive seasons in USA since 1993 was 179
average distance between 2 H3N2-viruses two seasons apart in USA since 1993 was 217

average accumulation of differences since 1968 was 30 per year.

gsgs · #17 April 22nd, 2008, 08:57 AM

why should the virus go out of the SE-Asean network, when it knows,
it won't durvive in America,Europe and needs to be newly seeded
from Asia anyway ?
Or better : why should such a virus be able to compete with viruses
which specialize on SE-Asia directly ?

Or similarly : why should an avian virus enter the one-end-road "humans",
where it will be wiped out in the next pandemic by a new virus ?

This can't be so well examined by looking at HA alone.
Viruses do reassort.

gsgs · #18 April 23rd, 2008, 03:19 AM

lots of questions :

what is the advantage of the SE-Asean network for flu,
why does it evolve and maintain there but not in other regions
of the world ? (if it's as suggested in the paper)
Monsun rains ? Large human population in tropical regions ?
But fly likes it cold
Is there maybe another reservoir, confined to SE-Asia,
where flu can evolve or at least survive some weeks or months
in the environment ?

Is there a similar network for birds ?
For other respiratory viruses ?
Qinghai H5N1 apparantly is maintained in the birds which breed
in the large West-Sibirian Wetlands and overwinter in the
Kaspian and Black Sea- regions.
H5N1 in Chinese birds shows extraordinary diversity with lots of reassortments not found elsewhere.
Most flu-types have been found to be maintained and coexist in
bird-populations in Northern Europe, Alberta(Canada),
Africa,China.

H5N1 in Indonesia is supposed to evolve in Indonesia alone,
not found elsewhere. Can a pandemic strain evolve and spread from
Indonesia, which is outside the SE-Asia-flu-network

Is this paper evidence that 1918 H1N1 also originated in SE-Asia ?

I assume that new flu-strains only more often(~80%?) originate
in SE-Asia but still sometimes originate in America,Africa,Europe

where to discuss these questions ?

gsgs · #19 April 23rd, 2008, 03:31 AM

text here:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=65452

pictures and some explantions here:
http://www.newfluwiki2.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2390

let's merge the threads interforumwise

gsgs · #20 May 4th, 2008, 04:51 AM

the 1568 H3N2-HA1-sequences 2002-2006 from the paper
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/conten...t/320/5874/340
discussed also here:
http://www.newfluwiki2.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2390
are available now at genbank. I put them in one big computer-readable file here:
http://magictour.free.fr/panflu/smith3
113 of these had no day of sampling, only the year, so I examined
only the 1455 remaining ones:
http://magictour.free.fr/panflu/smith7

What I've done so far : spotted 9 groups which could be separated
and looked at the virus which appeared first in each group.

mutations picture here

Code:

"Hunan", 59 viruses 
739 >20-Feb-2004,5162,6,China: Hunan,HUNAN/204 
... 
753 >09-May-2004,5243,2,Canada,Canada/578 
... 
748 >28-Feb-2005,5536,1,Russia: Moscow,MOSCOW/7 
--------- 

"Fujian", 304 viruses 
683 >06-Jun-2002,4540,6,China: Hong Kong,Hong-Kong/1143 
717 >17-Jul-2002,4581,5,Australia: Townsville,TOWNSVILLE/4 
716 >17-Jul-2002,4581,5,Philippines,Philippines/160283 
684 >18-Jul-2002,4582,5,Philippines,PHILIPPINES/471 
693 >18-Jul-2002,4582,5,Philippines,PHILIPPINES/472 
330 >26-Jul-2002,4590,6,China: Hong Kong,Hong-Kong/1510 
718 >02-Aug-2002,4597,6,China: Hong Kong,Hong-Kong/1554 
335 >11-Aug-2002,4606,6,China: Fujian,FUJIAN/411 
696 >20-Aug-2002,4615,6,China: Hunan,Hunan/407 
333 >09-Sep-2002,4634,6,Malaysia,MALAYSIA/145 
680 >25-Sep-2002,4650,6,Taiwan,TAIWAN/8 
688 >26-Oct-2002,4681,5,Guam,Guam/228 
682 >31-Oct-2002,4686,6,South Korea: Kwangju,KWANGJU/219 
685 >04-Nov-2002,4690,2,USA: New Jersey,New-Jersey/4 
... 
285 >02-Dec-2002,4718,2,USA: Alaska,Alaska/AK-RSP-02-753 
... 
681 >10-Dec-2002,4726,1,Netherlands,NETHERLANDS/368 
... 
371 >24-Dec-2002,4740,2,USA: Hawaii,Hawaii/HI-02-4055 
... 
715 >23-Jan-2003,4770,4,Egypt,Egypt/EG-2003900525 
... 
497 >08-Feb-2003,4785,5,New Zealand: Christchurch,CHRISTCHURCH/302 
... 
695 >03-Mar-2003,4811,6,India,India/II-031741-TS 
... 
367 >12-May-2003,4881,3,Chile,Chile/CI-03-6267 
--------- 

"Wuhan" , 142 viruses 
956 >26-Sep-1995,2094,6,China: Wuhan,WUHAN/359 
881 >15-Aug-2000,3879,5,Australia: Victoria,VICTORIA/544 
957 >29-Oct-2001,4319,5,Australia: Adelaide,SOUTHAustralia/102/2001 
934 >01-Jan-2002,4383,2,USA: Louisiana,Louisiana/2 
847 >01-Jan-2002,4383,6,China: Tianjin,Tianjin/5 
...(existed already in 2002, when examination started) 
--------- 

"HK/223" , 473 viruses 
324 >24-Feb-2005,5532,6,China: Hong Kong,HONG-KONG/223 
621 >11-Mar-2005,5549,6,Japan: Osaka,OSAKA/29 
439 >23-Mar-2005,5561,6,China: Jiangxi,JIANGXI/198 
... 
685 >24-May-2005,5623,5,New Zealand: Christchurch,CHRISTCHURCH/20 
... 
333 >30-May-2005,5629,5,Australia: Darwin,DARWIN/1 
706 >30-May-2005,5629,5,Philippines,PHILIPPINES/498 
729 >30-May-2005,5629,6,Thailand,THAILAND/196 
... 
268 >23-Jun-2005,5652,2,USA: South Carolina,South-Carolina/SC-SC05-217-ORIGINAL 
... 
475 >13-Nov-2005,5795,1,France: Paris,Pennsylvania/PA-5V00335 
... 
631 >18-Jan-2006,5861,3,Chile,Chile/CL-6928 
... 
622 >05-Jul-2006,6030,4,South Africa: Johannesburg,JOHANNESBURG/503 
--------- 

"Christchurch", 163 viruses 
345 >08-Feb-2003,4785,5,New Zealand: Christchurch,CHRISTCHURCH/302 
387 >09-Mar-2003,4817,5,Australia: Darwin,DARWIN/4 
... 
476 >27-Aug-2003,4987,2,USA: Connecticut,Connecticut/CT-767 
... 
416 >04-Sep-2003,4994,1,Ireland,IRELAND/9742 
... 
363 >08-Sep-2003,4998,5,New Caledonia,NEWCALEDONIA/14 
... 
442 >09-Oct-2003,5030,6,Malaysia,MALAYSIA/768 
... 
393 >15-Nov-2003,5066,4,Egypt,Egypt/EG-2003917221 
... 
479 >20-Nov-2003,5071,3,Chile,Chile/CL-4145 
... 
410 >23-Nov-2003,5074,1,Russia: Khabarovsk,KHABAROVSK/13 
--------- 

"Philippines", 33 viruses 
937 >21-Jul-2003,4950,5,Philippines,PHILIPPINES/621 
... 
932 >19-Aug-2003,4979,5,New Zealand: Dunedin,DUNEDIN/39 
944 >22-Aug-2003,4982,2,USA: Washington Dc,Washington-DC/AHERN-L 
... 
933 >01-Oct-2003,5022,5,Guam,Guyane/GQ-RSP-03-3715 
934 >13-Jan-2004,5125,6,Japan: Niigata,NIIGATA/95 
943 >18-Jun-2004,5282,5,Australia: Victoria,VICTORIA/101 
--------- 

"Japan" , 33 viruses 
245 >30-Jan-2006,5873,6,Japan: Niigata,NIIGATA/342 
... 
249 >03-Feb-2006,5876,6,China: Hong Kong,HONG-KONG/218 
--------- 

"Texas" , 30 viruses 
329 >15-Nov-2005,5797,2,USA: Texas,Texas/TX-VC5-1434 
332 >05-Dec-2005,5817,2,USA: Florida,Florida/FL-JVT-17100 
336 >28-Dec-2005,5840,6,South Korea,Korea/KO-37-06 
... 
330 >16-Feb-2006,5889,1,Norway,NORWAY/566-1 
... 
339 >06-Apr-2006,5940,5,New Zealand: Otago,OTAGO/1 
... 
345 >13-Jun-2006,6008,5,Philippines,PHILIPPINES/1124 
343 >14-Jun-2006,6009,5,New Zealand: Waikato,WAIKATO/49 
348 >20-Jun-2006,6015,3,French Guiana,GUYANE/28 
... 
344 >15-Jul-2006,6040,5,Australia: Brisbane,BRISBANE/35 
... 
334 >21-Aug-2006,6077,6,Thailand,THAILAND/559 
--------- 

"Donghu" , 29 viruses 
409 >28-Jun-2006,6023,6,China: Jiangxidonghu,JIANGXIDONGHU/1435 
... 
410 >21-Aug-2006,6077,2,USA: Maryland,Maryland/MD-V186917 
400 >20-Nov-2006,6167,6,South Korea: Incheon,INCHEON/682 
420 >24-Nov-2006,6171,2,Canada,Canada/CN-RV32-07 
... 
395 >11-Dec-2006,6188,3,French Guiana,GYEONGGI/743

gsgs · #21 May 4th, 2008, 09:44 AM

reassortment often decides which genes survive, which dominate.
What I meant is, that full viruses may usually die out in America,Europe
at the end of the season.
But they may occasionally acquire new genes/segments there which then
are transported back into birds or into the SE-Asian network
and thus contribute to the virus-evolution.

So, I think we should examine all reassortments, -as the key-events
of flu-evolution-, where they likely occurred
and whether descendents (of some segment) are still alive.

That reminds me to the Nanchang quail, the only example
we found for a bird with human virus. If some bird species
in SE-Asia could harbour a human viruses that might explain
their role in the emergence of new strains