Guidelines on Wild Bird Surveillance for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Virus
<nobr>Vittorio Guberti<sup>2</sup></nobr> and <nobr>Scott H. Newman<sup>3</sup><sup>,4</sup><sup>,5</sup></nobr>
<sup>2</sup> Istituto Nazionale Fauna Selvatica, Via Ca’ Fornacetta, 9-40064 Ozzano E. (BO), Italy
<sup>3</sup> United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Via delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy
<sup>4</sup> Wildlife Conservation Society, Field Veterinary Program, 2300 Southern Blvd., Bronx, New York, 10460 USA
<sup>5</sup> Corresponding author (email: Scott.Newman@fao.org<script type="text/javascript"><!-- var u = "Scott.Newman", d = "fao.org"; document.getElementById("em0").innerHTML = '<a href="mailto:' + u + '@' + d + '">' + u + '@' + d + '<\/a>'//--></script>)
<!-- ABS --> ABSTRACT: The recent spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)<sup> </sup>H5N1 from Southeast Asia into Europe and Africa emphasizes the<sup> </sup>need to better understand the mechanisms by which the disease<sup> </sup>is spread. Current wildlife surveillance has been limited to<sup> </sup>a combination of targeted sampling, opportunistic sampling,<sup> </sup>and recovery of dead wildlife. Recent interest in avian influenzas<sup> </sup>provides an opportunity to develop a global surveillance program<sup> </sup>for diseases in wild birds. This program should be based on<sup> </sup>specific principles with clearly defined aims, sound epidemiological<sup> </sup>sampling justifications, and sufficient technical skills and<sup> </sup>capabilities for appropriate field and laboratory activities.<sup> </sup>At present, although detection of H5N1 in healthy wild birds<sup> </sup>is sporadic, surveillance programs should be focused on: 1)<sup> </sup>determining the role wildlife plays in the epidemiology of HPAI<sup> </sup>H5N1 virus, and 2) guiding strategies to prevent disease exposure<sup> </sup>to humans and poultry. Surveillance should incorporate active<sup> </sup>and passive components using available natural history information<sup> </sup>such as intra- or interspecies mingling, population size, migratory<sup> </sup>patterns, and seasonal large-scale aggregations. Passive surveillance<sup> </sup>can include samples from bird banders/ringers, other wild bird<sup> </sup>research efforts, oil-spill response efforts, rehabilitation<sup> </sup>centers, zoological collections, beached-bird surveys, and mortality<sup> </sup>events. A valuable wildlife surveillance program based on ecological<sup> </sup>and epidemiological information will require large-scale collaboration<sup> </sup>among national governments and ministries, multilateral agencies,<sup> </sup>nongovernment organizations, academicians, veterinarians, virologists,<sup> </sup>ornithologists, and many others.<sup> </sup>
Key words: Avian influenza, guidelines, HPAI, H5N1, surveillance, waterfowl, wild birds.
<!-- null --> Over the past 5–10 yr, increasing numbers of infectious<sup> </sup>diseases in humans, wildlife, and domestic animals have emerged,<sup> </sup>and diseases such as mad cow disease, Lyme disease, monkey pox,<sup> </sup>nipah virus, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) have<sup> </sup>become common household terms. Most recently, with the emergence<sup> </sup>of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), subtype H5N1, global<sup> </sup>attention increased as people were informed that the virus could<sup> </sup>potentially represent the source of the next human influenza<sup> </sup>pandemic (de Jong et al., 1997).<sup> </sup>
While the scientific community acknowledges that this is primarily<sup> </sup>a poultry disease, and that prevention and control measures<sup> </sup>should be addressed at the level of agricultural production<sup> </sup>and farming practices, concern has been raised about the role<sup> </sup>that wild birds may play in harboring, perpetuating, and transmitting<sup> </sup>avian influenzas to new geographic locations internationally<sup> </sup>or intercontinentally. Wildlife species were not implicated<sup> </sup>as reservoirs or carriers of HPAI H5N1 during the initial outbreaks<sup> </sup>in poultry in Southeast Asia. From 2003 to 2005, however, large-scale<sup> </sup>mortality events in wild birds in China, Russia, Mongolia, and<sup> </sup>Eastern Europe clearly indicated that wild birds were susceptible<sup> </sup>to HPAI H5N1 (EMPRES Watch, 2005, 2006a; OIE, 2005–2006).<sup> </sup>Although suggestive, these initial events did not provide compelling<sup> </sup>evidence that infected wild birds could move these viruses over<sup> </sup>long distances during migration.<sup> </sup>
As of August 2006, wild bird mortality related to HPAI H5N1<sup> </sup>had been documented in Azerbaijan, Hungary, Romania, Serbia,<sup> </sup>Turkey, and Ukraine, where concurrent poultry outbreaks were<sup> </sup>occurring. In other countries, such as Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria,<sup> </sup>Croatia, Czech Republic, Georgia, Greece, Poland, Slovakia,<sup> </sup>and Slovenia, wild bird mortality occurred independent of known<sup> </sup>concurrent poultry outbreaks. This suggested that wild birds<sup> </sup>were infected elsewhere and flew into these countries before<sup> </sup>dying (EMPRES Watch, 2006b; Gilbert et al., 2006). This possibility<sup> </sup>was reinforced from fall 2005 through winter 2006 when HPAI<sup> </sup>H5N1 mortality in wild birds was documented across Western Europe.<sup> </sup>This mortality was mainly observed in mute swans (Cygnus olor),<sup> </sup>but other species were involved including mallard (Anas platyrhynchos)<sup> </sup>and common pochard (Aythya ferina) in France, great crested<sup> </sup>grebe (Podiceps cristatus) in Spain, little grebe (Tachybaptus<sup> </sup>ruficollis), tufted duck (Aythya fuligula), and common pochard<sup> </sup>in Switzerland, and whooper swan (Cygnus cygnus) in the United<sup> </sup>Kingdom (OIE, 2005–2006; USGS, 2006).<sup> </sup>
Although it had not yet been demonstrated that wild birds shed<sup> </sup>the virus during long-distance movements, a potentially important<sup> </sup>mechanism of disease spread via wildlife movements needed to<sup> </sup>be examined more carefully. To address the role of wild birds<sup> </sup>in the possible spread of HPAI H5N1, wildlife surveillance programs<sup> </sup>in 2005–2006 included sampling in the European Community<sup> </sup>in the framework of a European Commission (EC) activity; Eastern<sup> </sup>Europe, Asia, and Africa by the Food and Agriculture Organization<sup> </sup>(FAO) of the United Nations, Centre de Coopération Internationale<sup> </sup>en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD),<sup> </sup>and Wetlands International; Canada by the Canadian Wildlife<sup> </sup>Service (CWS); United States by the US Fish & Wildlife Service<sup> </sup>(USFWS) and US Geological Survey (USGS); South and Central America,<sup> </sup>Africa, Eastern Europe, and Asia by the Wildlife Conservation<sup> </sup>Society’s Global Avian Influenza Network for Surveillance<sup> </sup>(GAINS); and many national programs, including, but not limited<sup> </sup>to, China, Russia, Mongolia, Switzerland, Germany, Vietnam,<sup> </sup>Indonesia, and Iran. These surveillance programs were specifically<sup> </sup>focused on surveillance for HPAI H5N1.<sup> </sup>
To date, over 80 species from 14 orders of birds have been found<sup> </sup>positive for HPAI H5N1 (USGS, 2006); almost all positive samples<sup> </sup>were from moribund, sick, or dead birds. These birds generally<sup> </sup>fell into three categories: migratory waterfowl, bridge species<sup> </sup>(most likely nonmigratory) which may transport disease from<sup> </sup>poultry to wildlife or vice versa, and predatory birds which<sup> </sup>likely scavenged dead birds (poultry or wild birds) or predated<sup> </sup>sick birds.<sup> </sup>
Information from healthy migratory birds includes more than<sup> </sup>100,000 samples from EC, over 5,000 samples from Eastern Europe,<sup> </sup>Asia, and Africa, over 20,000 samples from the Americas, and<sup> </sup>hundreds of national program samples. Only one study thus far<sup> </sup>has demonstrated apparently healthy waterfowl positive for HPAI<sup> </sup>H5N1. The six positive birds (ducks) were not identified specifically<sup> </sup>in over 4,000 birds sampled in China from an area also used<sup> </sup>to raise domestic ducks (Chen et al., 2005).<sup> </sup>
In general, surveillance programs are difficult, complicated,<sup> </sup>and require a large, coordinated planning team(s). Most importantly,<sup> </sup>surveillance programs must be targeted and focused in order<sup> </sup>to obtain valuable information about disease ecology. Successful<sup> </sup>programs require biologists/ornithologists trained in proper<sup> </sup>monitoring and sample-collection techniques, year-round monitoring<sup> </sup>at wildlife habitat where species of concern are known to aggregate,<sup> </sup>and collaboration among biologists/ornithologists, veterinary<sup> </sup>services, and chief veterinary officers so coordinated disease<sup> </sup>sampling and testing activities can take place.<sup> </sup>
Broadly defined, surveillance includes the systematic collection<sup> </sup>of data referring to a particular disease in a population, the<sup> </sup>evaluation of such data, and the dissemination of the derived<sup> </sup>information to all who need to know. The classical definition<sup> </sup>encompasses two approaches and when applied specifically to<sup> </sup>HPAI H5N1 includes passive surveillance (opportunistic sampling<sup> </sup>from multiple sources especially related to wild bird morbidity<sup> </sup>and mortality events) and active surveillance (targeted samples<sup> </sup>to detect the targeted disease or agent).<sup> </sup>
Passive sampling takes advantage of pre-existing programs or<sup> </sup>sources of wild birds, such as rehabilitation or zoological<sup> </sup>exhibit animals, beached-bird monitoring programs, or birds<sup> </sup>collected through properly managed hunting programs. Samples<sup> </sup>cannot be guaranteed from a predetermined number of individuals,<sup> </sup>nor a specific species or group of species. In contrast, active<sup> </sup>surveillance programs can guarantee a certain level of detection<sup> </sup>and predetermined level of accuracy.<sup> </sup>
The most important goal of an HPAI H5N1 wildlife surveillance<sup> </sup>program is early detection of the virus, usually from a species<sup> </sup>or group of species that serve as a potential epidemiological<sup> </sup>reservoir. In the case of HPAI H5N1, a wildlife reservoir has<sup> </sup>not been identified or confirmed, and this limits the classical<sup> </sup>sampling approach according to a bimodal distribution (positive<sup> </sup>and negative individuals) in an infected population. Because<sup> </sup>an expected prevalence is not known, sampling intensity should<sup> </sup>conservatively focus on finding at least one positive animal<sup> </sup>assuming a very low prevalence (i.e., 0.5%
. This often requires<sup> </sup>very large sample sizes.<sup> </sup>
The number of samples taken is a function of the population<sup> </sup>size combined with the expected number of positive animals.<sup> </sup>For infectious diseases, the population can be defined as the<sup> </sup>group of animals that has the same probability of being positive<sup> </sup>(or negative) during the surveillance period. Also, the geographical<sup> </sup>scope is of paramount importance: should surveillance occur<sup> </sup>at every lake or wetland in each country or at selected wetlands<sup> </sup>that have certain characteristics? The critical community size<sup> </sup>(CCS), defined as the number of individuals able to maintain<sup> </sup>an infection in the environment for a certain period of time,<sup> </sup>should guide this decision when possible. Although not known<sup> </sup>for HPAI H5N1, the CCS for low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI)<sup> </sup>in wintering dabbling ducks indicates that wetlands containing<sup> </sup>1,200–1,500 waterfowl should be included in a surveillance<sup> </sup>program (Guberti et al., 2007). The number of wetlands might<sup> </sup>be reduced by combining population size with other risk factors,<sup> </sup>such as presence or number of backyard poultry, commercial farms,<sup> </sup>rice fields, or integrated farms. Considering the mortality<sup> </sup>associated with HPAI H5N1 in some wild species (Hulse-Post et al., 2005;<sup> </sup>Sturm-Ramirez et al., 2005; Brown et al., 2006), the CCS for<sup> </sup>the virus must be higher than that required for LPAI viruses.<sup> </sup>
Finally, surveillance strategies for HPAI H5N1 should consider<sup> </sup>the potential temporal and spatial factors that affect prevalence<sup> </sup>as it exists with LPAI in wild bird populations. In ducks in<sup> </sup>the Northern Hemisphere, prevalence is highest during late summer<sup> </sup>and early fall (premigration staging) and declines rapidly during<sup> </sup>winter (Hinshaw et al., 1980; Webster et al., 1992). If HPAI<sup> </sup>H5N1 virus prevalence trends are similar to LPAI viruses, the<sup> </sup>probability of finding the virus in northern latitudes would<sup> </sup>be highest during the premigration staging and molt period at<sup> </sup>the end of summer; likewise, the virus may be more difficult<sup> </sup>to detect as these birds migrate south (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa<sup> </sup>or Mediterranean Basin), especially at overwintering sites.<sup> </sup>
Bearing in mind that relevant information (CCS, expected prevalence,<sup> </sup>metapopulation sizes, species susceptibility and lethality)<sup> </sup>is still lacking for the establishment of an HPAI H5N1 surveillance<sup> </sup>program, and that logistical and financial limitations exist,<sup> </sup>we recommend a combined passive and active surveillance scheme.<sup> </sup>This will provide the best approach to detect HPAI H5N1 early<sup> </sup>and to assess viral presence in potentially endemic areas. The<sup> </sup>combination of active and passive surveillance will provide<sup> </sup>answers to the following important questions: do HPAI H5N1 viruses<sup> </sup>exist and persist in wild bird populations, and if so, where,<sup> </sup>when, and in what species do they occur? To answer these questions,<sup> </sup>the following recommendations are offered.<sup> </sup>
Sampling efficacy can be significantly improved if a wild reservoir<sup> </sup>of HPAI H5N1 virus exists and is identified and when global<sup> </sup>coordination and information exchange can address macroareas<sup> </sup>and species to be sampled in light of the ongoing spatial distribution<sup> </sup>and epidemiological situation of HPAI H5N1 virus. Such information<sup> </sup>will improve surveillance at the local scale, especially in<sup> </sup>selecting species at risk, appropriate sample sizes, and appropriate<sup> </sup>season. Current HPAI H5N1 virus surveillance strategies using<sup> </sup>many locations, each with a relatively small sampling intensity,<sup> </sup>may not reveal infected birds because the prevalence (as of<sup> </sup>1 April 2007) appears to be very low, and sampled individuals<sup> </sup>may not belong to the same population.<sup> </sup>
Only regular and repeated surveillance of appropriate habitats<sup> </sup>will have the sensitivity to detect mortality and provide opportunities<sup> </sup>to sample moribund or fresh carcasses where HPAI H5N1 is most<sup> </sup>likely to be found. Other ongoing programs, such as beached-bird<sup> </sup>monitoring, wildlife rehabilitation, or bird banding/ringing,<sup> </sup>also may provide inexpensive samples as long as the species<sup> </sup>are appropriate for HPAI H5N1 testing. These "passive surveillance"<sup> </sup>samples are opportunistic and capitalize on previously established<sup> </sup>programs.<sup> </sup>
Active targeted sampling programs developed by the EC, FAO,<sup> </sup>CWS, USGS, USFWS, and GAINS are only possible with significant<sup> </sup>financial backing. However, no active surveillance programs<sup> </sup>can guarantee early detection of the HPAI H5N1 virus if infection<sup> </sup>is sporadic and prevalence is low in wild birds. Surveillance<sup> </sup>programs can detect diseases only when a detectable level of<sup> </sup>disease is present, and even then, success depends on a combination<sup> </sup>of factors including viral epidemiological parameters, host<sup> </sup>population size, and sampling intensity.<sup> </sup>
Understanding whether a wild reservoir species exists, and then<sup> </sup>identifying possible drivers of HPAI emergence, such as anthropogenic<sup> </sup>changes to the environment, intensified agricultural practices,<sup> </sup>or selection pressure for dominance of viral strains adapted<sup> </sup>to survive in a modified environment (Morse, 1993; Schragg and Wiener, 1995),<sup> </sup>are important next steps in the control and management of HPAI<sup> </sup>H5N1 virus. Environmental, agricultural, and ecological conditions<sup> </sup>also affect disease infection rates, likelihood of transmission,<sup> </sup>and maintenance or persistence of disease. Once risk factors<sup> </sup>are clearly identified, resource management decisions, including<sup> </sup>those specific for improved biosecurity, can minimize disease<sup> </sup>spread among domestic poultry, wildlife, and humans.<sup></sup>
Key words: Avian influenza, guidelines, HPAI, H5N1, surveillance, waterfowl, wild birds.
<!-- FN --> <!-- null --> <sup>1</sup> Presentation at the FAO and OIE International Scientific Conference<sup> </sup>on Avian Influenza and Wild Birds, Rome, 30 and 31 May 2006
<nobr>Vittorio Guberti<sup>2</sup></nobr> and <nobr>Scott H. Newman<sup>3</sup><sup>,4</sup><sup>,5</sup></nobr>
<sup>2</sup> Istituto Nazionale Fauna Selvatica, Via Ca’ Fornacetta, 9-40064 Ozzano E. (BO), Italy
<sup>3</sup> United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Via delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy
<sup>4</sup> Wildlife Conservation Society, Field Veterinary Program, 2300 Southern Blvd., Bronx, New York, 10460 USA
<sup>5</sup> Corresponding author (email: Scott.Newman@fao.org<script type="text/javascript"><!-- var u = "Scott.Newman", d = "fao.org"; document.getElementById("em0").innerHTML = '<a href="mailto:' + u + '@' + d + '">' + u + '@' + d + '<\/a>'//--></script>)
<!-- ABS --> ABSTRACT: The recent spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)<sup> </sup>H5N1 from Southeast Asia into Europe and Africa emphasizes the<sup> </sup>need to better understand the mechanisms by which the disease<sup> </sup>is spread. Current wildlife surveillance has been limited to<sup> </sup>a combination of targeted sampling, opportunistic sampling,<sup> </sup>and recovery of dead wildlife. Recent interest in avian influenzas<sup> </sup>provides an opportunity to develop a global surveillance program<sup> </sup>for diseases in wild birds. This program should be based on<sup> </sup>specific principles with clearly defined aims, sound epidemiological<sup> </sup>sampling justifications, and sufficient technical skills and<sup> </sup>capabilities for appropriate field and laboratory activities.<sup> </sup>At present, although detection of H5N1 in healthy wild birds<sup> </sup>is sporadic, surveillance programs should be focused on: 1)<sup> </sup>determining the role wildlife plays in the epidemiology of HPAI<sup> </sup>H5N1 virus, and 2) guiding strategies to prevent disease exposure<sup> </sup>to humans and poultry. Surveillance should incorporate active<sup> </sup>and passive components using available natural history information<sup> </sup>such as intra- or interspecies mingling, population size, migratory<sup> </sup>patterns, and seasonal large-scale aggregations. Passive surveillance<sup> </sup>can include samples from bird banders/ringers, other wild bird<sup> </sup>research efforts, oil-spill response efforts, rehabilitation<sup> </sup>centers, zoological collections, beached-bird surveys, and mortality<sup> </sup>events. A valuable wildlife surveillance program based on ecological<sup> </sup>and epidemiological information will require large-scale collaboration<sup> </sup>among national governments and ministries, multilateral agencies,<sup> </sup>nongovernment organizations, academicians, veterinarians, virologists,<sup> </sup>ornithologists, and many others.<sup> </sup>
Key words: Avian influenza, guidelines, HPAI, H5N1, surveillance, waterfowl, wild birds.
<!-- null --> Over the past 5–10 yr, increasing numbers of infectious<sup> </sup>diseases in humans, wildlife, and domestic animals have emerged,<sup> </sup>and diseases such as mad cow disease, Lyme disease, monkey pox,<sup> </sup>nipah virus, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) have<sup> </sup>become common household terms. Most recently, with the emergence<sup> </sup>of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), subtype H5N1, global<sup> </sup>attention increased as people were informed that the virus could<sup> </sup>potentially represent the source of the next human influenza<sup> </sup>pandemic (de Jong et al., 1997).<sup> </sup>
While the scientific community acknowledges that this is primarily<sup> </sup>a poultry disease, and that prevention and control measures<sup> </sup>should be addressed at the level of agricultural production<sup> </sup>and farming practices, concern has been raised about the role<sup> </sup>that wild birds may play in harboring, perpetuating, and transmitting<sup> </sup>avian influenzas to new geographic locations internationally<sup> </sup>or intercontinentally. Wildlife species were not implicated<sup> </sup>as reservoirs or carriers of HPAI H5N1 during the initial outbreaks<sup> </sup>in poultry in Southeast Asia. From 2003 to 2005, however, large-scale<sup> </sup>mortality events in wild birds in China, Russia, Mongolia, and<sup> </sup>Eastern Europe clearly indicated that wild birds were susceptible<sup> </sup>to HPAI H5N1 (EMPRES Watch, 2005, 2006a; OIE, 2005–2006).<sup> </sup>Although suggestive, these initial events did not provide compelling<sup> </sup>evidence that infected wild birds could move these viruses over<sup> </sup>long distances during migration.<sup> </sup>
As of August 2006, wild bird mortality related to HPAI H5N1<sup> </sup>had been documented in Azerbaijan, Hungary, Romania, Serbia,<sup> </sup>Turkey, and Ukraine, where concurrent poultry outbreaks were<sup> </sup>occurring. In other countries, such as Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria,<sup> </sup>Croatia, Czech Republic, Georgia, Greece, Poland, Slovakia,<sup> </sup>and Slovenia, wild bird mortality occurred independent of known<sup> </sup>concurrent poultry outbreaks. This suggested that wild birds<sup> </sup>were infected elsewhere and flew into these countries before<sup> </sup>dying (EMPRES Watch, 2006b; Gilbert et al., 2006). This possibility<sup> </sup>was reinforced from fall 2005 through winter 2006 when HPAI<sup> </sup>H5N1 mortality in wild birds was documented across Western Europe.<sup> </sup>This mortality was mainly observed in mute swans (Cygnus olor),<sup> </sup>but other species were involved including mallard (Anas platyrhynchos)<sup> </sup>and common pochard (Aythya ferina) in France, great crested<sup> </sup>grebe (Podiceps cristatus) in Spain, little grebe (Tachybaptus<sup> </sup>ruficollis), tufted duck (Aythya fuligula), and common pochard<sup> </sup>in Switzerland, and whooper swan (Cygnus cygnus) in the United<sup> </sup>Kingdom (OIE, 2005–2006; USGS, 2006).<sup> </sup>
Although it had not yet been demonstrated that wild birds shed<sup> </sup>the virus during long-distance movements, a potentially important<sup> </sup>mechanism of disease spread via wildlife movements needed to<sup> </sup>be examined more carefully. To address the role of wild birds<sup> </sup>in the possible spread of HPAI H5N1, wildlife surveillance programs<sup> </sup>in 2005–2006 included sampling in the European Community<sup> </sup>in the framework of a European Commission (EC) activity; Eastern<sup> </sup>Europe, Asia, and Africa by the Food and Agriculture Organization<sup> </sup>(FAO) of the United Nations, Centre de Coopération Internationale<sup> </sup>en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD),<sup> </sup>and Wetlands International; Canada by the Canadian Wildlife<sup> </sup>Service (CWS); United States by the US Fish & Wildlife Service<sup> </sup>(USFWS) and US Geological Survey (USGS); South and Central America,<sup> </sup>Africa, Eastern Europe, and Asia by the Wildlife Conservation<sup> </sup>Society’s Global Avian Influenza Network for Surveillance<sup> </sup>(GAINS); and many national programs, including, but not limited<sup> </sup>to, China, Russia, Mongolia, Switzerland, Germany, Vietnam,<sup> </sup>Indonesia, and Iran. These surveillance programs were specifically<sup> </sup>focused on surveillance for HPAI H5N1.<sup> </sup>
To date, over 80 species from 14 orders of birds have been found<sup> </sup>positive for HPAI H5N1 (USGS, 2006); almost all positive samples<sup> </sup>were from moribund, sick, or dead birds. These birds generally<sup> </sup>fell into three categories: migratory waterfowl, bridge species<sup> </sup>(most likely nonmigratory) which may transport disease from<sup> </sup>poultry to wildlife or vice versa, and predatory birds which<sup> </sup>likely scavenged dead birds (poultry or wild birds) or predated<sup> </sup>sick birds.<sup> </sup>
Information from healthy migratory birds includes more than<sup> </sup>100,000 samples from EC, over 5,000 samples from Eastern Europe,<sup> </sup>Asia, and Africa, over 20,000 samples from the Americas, and<sup> </sup>hundreds of national program samples. Only one study thus far<sup> </sup>has demonstrated apparently healthy waterfowl positive for HPAI<sup> </sup>H5N1. The six positive birds (ducks) were not identified specifically<sup> </sup>in over 4,000 birds sampled in China from an area also used<sup> </sup>to raise domestic ducks (Chen et al., 2005).<sup> </sup>
In general, surveillance programs are difficult, complicated,<sup> </sup>and require a large, coordinated planning team(s). Most importantly,<sup> </sup>surveillance programs must be targeted and focused in order<sup> </sup>to obtain valuable information about disease ecology. Successful<sup> </sup>programs require biologists/ornithologists trained in proper<sup> </sup>monitoring and sample-collection techniques, year-round monitoring<sup> </sup>at wildlife habitat where species of concern are known to aggregate,<sup> </sup>and collaboration among biologists/ornithologists, veterinary<sup> </sup>services, and chief veterinary officers so coordinated disease<sup> </sup>sampling and testing activities can take place.<sup> </sup>
Broadly defined, surveillance includes the systematic collection<sup> </sup>of data referring to a particular disease in a population, the<sup> </sup>evaluation of such data, and the dissemination of the derived<sup> </sup>information to all who need to know. The classical definition<sup> </sup>encompasses two approaches and when applied specifically to<sup> </sup>HPAI H5N1 includes passive surveillance (opportunistic sampling<sup> </sup>from multiple sources especially related to wild bird morbidity<sup> </sup>and mortality events) and active surveillance (targeted samples<sup> </sup>to detect the targeted disease or agent).<sup> </sup>
Passive sampling takes advantage of pre-existing programs or<sup> </sup>sources of wild birds, such as rehabilitation or zoological<sup> </sup>exhibit animals, beached-bird monitoring programs, or birds<sup> </sup>collected through properly managed hunting programs. Samples<sup> </sup>cannot be guaranteed from a predetermined number of individuals,<sup> </sup>nor a specific species or group of species. In contrast, active<sup> </sup>surveillance programs can guarantee a certain level of detection<sup> </sup>and predetermined level of accuracy.<sup> </sup>
The most important goal of an HPAI H5N1 wildlife surveillance<sup> </sup>program is early detection of the virus, usually from a species<sup> </sup>or group of species that serve as a potential epidemiological<sup> </sup>reservoir. In the case of HPAI H5N1, a wildlife reservoir has<sup> </sup>not been identified or confirmed, and this limits the classical<sup> </sup>sampling approach according to a bimodal distribution (positive<sup> </sup>and negative individuals) in an infected population. Because<sup> </sup>an expected prevalence is not known, sampling intensity should<sup> </sup>conservatively focus on finding at least one positive animal<sup> </sup>assuming a very low prevalence (i.e., 0.5%
The number of samples taken is a function of the population<sup> </sup>size combined with the expected number of positive animals.<sup> </sup>For infectious diseases, the population can be defined as the<sup> </sup>group of animals that has the same probability of being positive<sup> </sup>(or negative) during the surveillance period. Also, the geographical<sup> </sup>scope is of paramount importance: should surveillance occur<sup> </sup>at every lake or wetland in each country or at selected wetlands<sup> </sup>that have certain characteristics? The critical community size<sup> </sup>(CCS), defined as the number of individuals able to maintain<sup> </sup>an infection in the environment for a certain period of time,<sup> </sup>should guide this decision when possible. Although not known<sup> </sup>for HPAI H5N1, the CCS for low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI)<sup> </sup>in wintering dabbling ducks indicates that wetlands containing<sup> </sup>1,200–1,500 waterfowl should be included in a surveillance<sup> </sup>program (Guberti et al., 2007). The number of wetlands might<sup> </sup>be reduced by combining population size with other risk factors,<sup> </sup>such as presence or number of backyard poultry, commercial farms,<sup> </sup>rice fields, or integrated farms. Considering the mortality<sup> </sup>associated with HPAI H5N1 in some wild species (Hulse-Post et al., 2005;<sup> </sup>Sturm-Ramirez et al., 2005; Brown et al., 2006), the CCS for<sup> </sup>the virus must be higher than that required for LPAI viruses.<sup> </sup>
Finally, surveillance strategies for HPAI H5N1 should consider<sup> </sup>the potential temporal and spatial factors that affect prevalence<sup> </sup>as it exists with LPAI in wild bird populations. In ducks in<sup> </sup>the Northern Hemisphere, prevalence is highest during late summer<sup> </sup>and early fall (premigration staging) and declines rapidly during<sup> </sup>winter (Hinshaw et al., 1980; Webster et al., 1992). If HPAI<sup> </sup>H5N1 virus prevalence trends are similar to LPAI viruses, the<sup> </sup>probability of finding the virus in northern latitudes would<sup> </sup>be highest during the premigration staging and molt period at<sup> </sup>the end of summer; likewise, the virus may be more difficult<sup> </sup>to detect as these birds migrate south (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa<sup> </sup>or Mediterranean Basin), especially at overwintering sites.<sup> </sup>
Bearing in mind that relevant information (CCS, expected prevalence,<sup> </sup>metapopulation sizes, species susceptibility and lethality)<sup> </sup>is still lacking for the establishment of an HPAI H5N1 surveillance<sup> </sup>program, and that logistical and financial limitations exist,<sup> </sup>we recommend a combined passive and active surveillance scheme.<sup> </sup>This will provide the best approach to detect HPAI H5N1 early<sup> </sup>and to assess viral presence in potentially endemic areas. The<sup> </sup>combination of active and passive surveillance will provide<sup> </sup>answers to the following important questions: do HPAI H5N1 viruses<sup> </sup>exist and persist in wild bird populations, and if so, where,<sup> </sup>when, and in what species do they occur? To answer these questions,<sup> </sup>the following recommendations are offered.<sup> </sup>
- Implement bird observation and monitoring programs at key wildlife<sup> </sup>habitats to enable daily to weekly monitoring of bird deaths<sup> </sup>and facilitate collection and testing of fresh carcasses. This<sup> </sup>monitoring requires minimally trained staff, a reporting mechanism<sup> </sup>and information repository, and coordination with veterinary<sup> </sup>services to provide diagnostic support. This level of surveillance<sup> </sup>can be applied easily to any important bird habitat. Supplemental<sup> </sup>training of personnel involved in monitoring programs could<sup> </sup>provide insight into conservation issues such as species presence<sup> </sup>and absence during the year, numbers of individuals, behavioral<sup> </sup>ecology, changing environmental conditions, and presence of<sup> </sup>other avian diseases. If financial resources are limited, effort<sup> </sup>should be focused on sick or dead birds to facilitate finding<sup> </sup>HPAI H5N1 at a few select habitats where additional risk factors<sup> </sup>exist.<sup> </sup>
- Based on the international epidemiological situation<sup> </sup>of HPAI<sup> </sup>H5N1, a prompt investigation of wild bird morbidity<sup> </sup>or mortality<sup> </sup>events should be considered at local areas when<sup> </sup>at risk. In<sup> </sup>areas that are ecologically linked with recent outbreaks<sup> </sup>or<sup> </sup>ongoing poultry outbreaks, single cases of mortality in high-risk<sup> </sup>species (mainly Anseriformes and Charadriiformes) must be investigated.<sup> </sup>In low-risk species and when concurrent poultry outbreaks are<sup> </sup>not occurring, unusual mortality events involving 10 or more<sup> </sup>individuals in less than a week within a 10 km radius from a<sup> </sup>wetland, lake, or pond should be investigated. The costs associated<sup> </sup>with this type of response are relatively minor, and information<sup> </sup>gained about other infectious diseases will be inherently valuable.<sup> </sup>If funding is limited, diagnostic work should be restricted<sup> </sup>to check for HPAI H5N1 virus only. Finally, full understanding<sup> </sup>of the disease ecology of HPAI in endemic or outbreak areas<sup> </sup>needs to include potential transmission between agricultural<sup> </sup>production and wetland habitats by "bridge species" such as<sup> </sup>doves (Columbidae), starlings (Sturnidae), sparrows (Passeridae),<sup> </sup>swallows (Hirundinidae), and other primary synanthropic bird<sup> </sup>species. An effective communication network to report any epidemiological<sup> </sup>event linked to the possible spread of the virus needs to be<sup> </sup>developed.<sup> </sup>
- If expertise in bird capture and handling exists,<sup> </sup>and financial<sup> </sup>support is available, bird surveillance should<sup> </sup>be conducted<sup> </sup>on healthy, live birds using the principles outlined<sup> </sup>in the<sup> </sup>previous section, including: a viral prevalence less<sup> </sup>than 1%;<sup> </sup>tracheal swabs (or oropharyngeal swabs in smaller species)<sup> </sup>together<sup> </sup>with cloacal swabs collected on all birds; sample collection<sup> </sup>during seasons when viral detection is most likely; if waterfowl<sup> </sup>are to be sampled, wetlands containing more than 1,200–1,500<sup> </sup>waterfowl should be targeted; and if possible, habitats adjacent<sup> </sup>to poultry farms, or species visiting these farms, should be<sup> </sup>sampled.<sup> </sup>
Sampling efficacy can be significantly improved if a wild reservoir<sup> </sup>of HPAI H5N1 virus exists and is identified and when global<sup> </sup>coordination and information exchange can address macroareas<sup> </sup>and species to be sampled in light of the ongoing spatial distribution<sup> </sup>and epidemiological situation of HPAI H5N1 virus. Such information<sup> </sup>will improve surveillance at the local scale, especially in<sup> </sup>selecting species at risk, appropriate sample sizes, and appropriate<sup> </sup>season. Current HPAI H5N1 virus surveillance strategies using<sup> </sup>many locations, each with a relatively small sampling intensity,<sup> </sup>may not reveal infected birds because the prevalence (as of<sup> </sup>1 April 2007) appears to be very low, and sampled individuals<sup> </sup>may not belong to the same population.<sup> </sup>
Only regular and repeated surveillance of appropriate habitats<sup> </sup>will have the sensitivity to detect mortality and provide opportunities<sup> </sup>to sample moribund or fresh carcasses where HPAI H5N1 is most<sup> </sup>likely to be found. Other ongoing programs, such as beached-bird<sup> </sup>monitoring, wildlife rehabilitation, or bird banding/ringing,<sup> </sup>also may provide inexpensive samples as long as the species<sup> </sup>are appropriate for HPAI H5N1 testing. These "passive surveillance"<sup> </sup>samples are opportunistic and capitalize on previously established<sup> </sup>programs.<sup> </sup>
Active targeted sampling programs developed by the EC, FAO,<sup> </sup>CWS, USGS, USFWS, and GAINS are only possible with significant<sup> </sup>financial backing. However, no active surveillance programs<sup> </sup>can guarantee early detection of the HPAI H5N1 virus if infection<sup> </sup>is sporadic and prevalence is low in wild birds. Surveillance<sup> </sup>programs can detect diseases only when a detectable level of<sup> </sup>disease is present, and even then, success depends on a combination<sup> </sup>of factors including viral epidemiological parameters, host<sup> </sup>population size, and sampling intensity.<sup> </sup>
Understanding whether a wild reservoir species exists, and then<sup> </sup>identifying possible drivers of HPAI emergence, such as anthropogenic<sup> </sup>changes to the environment, intensified agricultural practices,<sup> </sup>or selection pressure for dominance of viral strains adapted<sup> </sup>to survive in a modified environment (Morse, 1993; Schragg and Wiener, 1995),<sup> </sup>are important next steps in the control and management of HPAI<sup> </sup>H5N1 virus. Environmental, agricultural, and ecological conditions<sup> </sup>also affect disease infection rates, likelihood of transmission,<sup> </sup>and maintenance or persistence of disease. Once risk factors<sup> </sup>are clearly identified, resource management decisions, including<sup> </sup>those specific for improved biosecurity, can minimize disease<sup> </sup>spread among domestic poultry, wildlife, and humans.<sup></sup>
Key words: Avian influenza, guidelines, HPAI, H5N1, surveillance, waterfowl, wild birds.
<!-- FN --> <!-- null --> <sup>1</sup> Presentation at the FAO and OIE International Scientific Conference<sup> </sup>on Avian Influenza and Wild Birds, Rome, 30 and 31 May 2006
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