1.7 Million Scots at Risk of A/H1N1

[kiwibird]

1.7million Scots at risk from swine flu pandemic
Alison Campsie

Up to a third of the Scottish population will be infected by swine flu as the pandemic declared by the World Health Organisation runs its course, according to official predictions.

The Scottish Government last night predicted that 25% to 35% of those living in the country would be hit by the virus, with up to 1.7 million people at risk.

Businesses and other organisations are being urged to adopt more robust infection control measures to protect the public from the disease.
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Meanwhile, up to 50% of Scottish healthcare workers tested reported that the masks designed to protect them from swine flu did not fit properly.

Health secretary Nicola Sturgeon last night sought to allay public fears after WHO moved the status of the virus to Phase 6, a decision taken after community outbreaks of swine flu were reported in at least three countries.

She also announced a shift in tactics adopted by the government in response to the growing number of confirmed cases, which last night rested at 337 with a further 659 people waiting for test results.

Ms Sturgeon said: "A move to Level 6 is not a verdict on the severity of the virus. It does not mean that the WHO thinks the virus has become more serious. It simply means that the extent of global spread now fulfils the definition of a pandemic.

"A move to Level 6 means that countries need to be ready to implement pandemic plans immediately.

"In Scotland, as we are already operating at a heightened state of readiness, a move to Level 6 will not trigger any material change in our response."

Dr Margaret Chan, director- general of the World Health Organisation (WHO), said the world should "brace" itself to see more deaths. However, she said the organisation did not expect to see a sudden leap in the number of people with severe or fatal infections.

The Scottish Government is now moving away from trying to contain the virus in the areas hit hardest by the infection - Glasgow, Argyll and Bute and Paisley.

Here, the anti-viral drug will no longer be handed out on spec to those who may have come into contact with a confirmed case, such as school pupils. A more targeted administration of the drug will now be adopted in a bid to stop the virus becoming immune to it.

Laboratory testing will also be scaled back, with more diagnosis to be carried out at GP surgeries and hospitals.

This change in approach is likely to be adopted all over the country as the virus deepens, Ms Sturgeon said.

A paper from Health Protection Scotland reported a high failure rate in a fit test' of protective respirator masks worn by healthcare staff in Scotland. Edinburgh and Glasgow health boards reported that, in tests, the masks did not fit for 50% of staff. An ongoing investigation is being carried out by HPS on this issue.

Joe Partridge, technical director at 3M, which makes the masks, said that staff had been offered more guidance on how to fit the masks properly and that alternative protective equipment was available.

A pupil at St Vincent's Primary School in Carnwadric, Glasgow, was among those who tested positive for the H1N1 infection.

A music teacher who worked at a number of schools in North Lanarkshire was also confirmed as having the virus, resulting in 41 pupils at Carluke High, St Andrews and St Brides, Calderglen High, and Craighead School being asked to stay at home for seven days.

http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/new...ion_Scots_at_risk_from_swine_flu_pandemic.php

 

[kiwibird]

Re: 1.7 Million Scots at Risk of A/H1N1

Swine flu can't be stopped and will kill more

Published Date: 12 June 2009
By David Maddox, Scottish Political Correspondent
THE first flu pandemic in more than 40 years was declared yesterday, as the World Health Organisation (WHO) admitted that the spread of swine flu was now "unstoppable".

At a dramatic press conference, WHO director general Dr Margaret Chan warned that the world should "brace" itself for more deaths

But she insisted that people should not panic, and stressed that the announcement did not mean swine flu was any more dangerous than it had been before.

The WHO's statement came as the number of swine flu cases in Scotland rose to 337 ? more than one-third of the British total.

The figures were revealed by health secretary Nicola Sturgeon, who warned that one knock-on effect of a pandemic being declared was that vaccines would now come to Britain more slowly, because of the massively increased worldwide demand.

The WHO has said that the southern hemisphere will be prioritised for vaccines because those countries have moved into their winter period.

However, Ms Sturgeon said the Scottish Government still hoped to have enough doses of vaccine to provide 100 per cent coverage by the end of the year.

Scottish Chief Medical Officer Harry Burns said: "It is possible that a 30 per cent coverage may be enough to disrupt the spread of the virus."

The health secretary confirmed that vaccines would first go to targeted groups, probably health workers coming into contact with swine flu patients and children who are most susceptible to the virus.

In her press conference, Dr Chan said the spread of the virus could not be stopped.

"This means the world is moving into the early days of its first influenza pandemic in the 21st century," she said.

But Dr Chan went on: "We also want to make clear that the higher level of the pandemic does not necessarily mean we are going to see a more dangerous virus."

She said eight countries would meet to discuss the spread of the virus on Wednesday.

"Collectively, looking at that, we are satisfied that this virus is spreading to a number of countries and is not stoppable," she said.

"We have seen now this new influenza, H1N1, is actually crowding out the seasonal influenza virus. And this is a very typical feature of previous pandemics."

But Dr Chan said the WHO would not recommend closing borders.

Meanwhile, scientists studying the worldwide outbreak of the potentially deadly flu strain have called for more monitoring of pigs to try to identify potential human diseases.

Pigs are often infected with many different types of flu, which makes those animals an ideal breeding ground for new types of influenza.

According to research, the latest swine flu strain has been circulating in pigs for as long as ten years.

And experts say it may have been first contracted by humans as far back as August last year.

Oxford University flu expert Dr Oliver Pybus, one of the authors of the research, published in Nature magazine, said: "We have managed to reconstruct the origins and timescale of the epidemic, and that suggests this particular strain has been circulating undetected in pigs for up to ten years.

"It has possibly been around on different continents before it actually caused the epidemic this year."

He went on: "We think the origin in humans (was] some time between last August and the start of this year.

"Either the virus has had some particular mutations which has allowed it to 'supertransfer' to humans, or it has been passing to humans from pigs in small amounts for some time but just hasn't ever triggered a major pandemic until now."

Dr Pybus added: "I think we need to have a systematic surveillance of flu in pigs to try and monitor the development of diseases."

In a statement to MSPs yesterday, Ms Sturgeon said the rapid spread of swine flu meant the Scottish Government was now changing its strategy on containing the spread of the H1N1 virus.

She revealed the number of doses of the anti-viral medicine Tamiflu being prescribed would now be reduced, because of fears that the virus may become immune to the drug's effects.

"There's no doubt in my mind the changes, the refinements, to our containment strategy are right," she said.

"They are based on expert evidence. They will allow us to ensure that resources are targeted to best effect in order to continue, as far as we can, to minimise the spread of the infection."

She also said fewer tests would now be sent to laboratories, especially if people who have flu have been in contact with friends or family members who have already been diagnosed with the H1N1 strain.

A pupil at St Vincent's Primary School in Carnwadric, Glasgow, was among those who tested positive for the H1N1 infection yesterday.

As a result, all of the school's composite primary 5/ primary 6 class has been sent home for a week.

A music teacher who worked at a number of schools in South Lanarkshire was also confirmed as having the virus, resulting in 41 pupils at Carluke High, St Andrews and St Brides in East Kilbride, Calderglen High in East Kilbride, and Craighead School in Hamilton being asked to stay at home for seven days.

In addition, there is one probable case of the infection in Scotland, with 659 possible cases being investigated.

But Ms Sturgeon said: "Scotland is not unique in seeing a continuing rise in cases ? this is happening in countries around the world.

"As in Scotland, the vast majority of people are experiencing relatively mild symptoms."

The declaration of a pandemic led to Labour health spokeswoman Cathy Jamieson urging the Scottish Government to organise a targeted campaign in schools and nurseries to help combat the spread of flu.

She said: "There is a very strong case for a specifically targeted campaign in schools and nurseries to help prevent the spread of flu in these settings. Parents and children need to be armed with the facts so that they can protect themselves."

Businesses in Scotland were warned to prepare for large numbers of employees being off work with the virus.

Rod Ratsma, managing consultant in the UK business continuity management team at risk advisers Marsh, pointed out that the experience of Spanish flu in 1918 showed that after a lull in the summer, there could be a major outbreak in the winter

He said: "With declaration of the pandemic, public and private organisations should seek to finalise, validate, and test their business continuity, supply chain resiliency, and crisis communications plans, so they will be able to cope more effectively with any potential jurisdictional and economic consequences."

Evidence of the strain's rapid spread across the world was made clear yesterday when it was confirmed a group of Japanese school children had picked up the virus on a trip to Germany.

Nevertheless, the WHO has said there is no point in closing borders at this stage.

Dr Chan also tried to provide comfort by saying that the pandemic was the most closely monitored in human history.

New mutation is the reason behind spread

SWINE flu has been making pigs ill since it was first identified in the United States in 1930.

For decades the virus was almost entirely a veterinary problem. Before the current scare, no more than 40 or 50 cases of human infection had been recorded anywhere in the world in 25 years. These were people who were closely associated with pigs, such as farmers and meat industry workers.

Then something happened: the virus underwent a genetic reshuffle that enabled it to pass easily between humans. The "new" virus is technically known as influenza A/H1N1v (the "v" stands for "variant").

Like many viruses, it is a hybrid, made up of an assortment of genetic material ? in this case RNA ? obtained through combination with different strains.

H1N1v is an amalgam of four elements, derived from North American swine flu, avian (bird) flu, human "seasonal" flu and Eurasian swine flu.

Surprisingly, it was the addition of Eurasian swine flu that appears to have made the virus threatening to humans.

Earlier forms of the original, American, swine flu already had avian and human elements. But human outbreaks only started when these viruses acquired genetic material from the Eurasian swine strain, which appeared in pigs in the 1970s.

Professor Nick Phin, head of the Pandemic Flu Unit at the Health Protection Agency's Centre for Infections in Colindale, north London, said: "The previous swine influenza in the US was a triple assortment of human, avian and swine components. What's new about this virus is this fourth element, which is Eurasian swine flu. This reassortment has affected the structure of the virus, so that it is now capable of infecting human beings and being transmitted from person to person."

At present the virus appears to be relatively mild, and not as dangerous as the H5N1 bird flu strain that kills around 60 per cent of all those it infects.

CLARE BAILLIE

The state of play and how it will affect you

So a pandemic means that swine flu is out of control and has spread around the world?

A disease is classed as a pandemic when it becomes a worldwide epidemic. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), this means the virus is spreading in the community in two or more countries in one region of the world, and at least one country in another region of the world. A pandemic signifies phase 6 ? the highest level of threat.

Does this mean that the virus is more dangerous and there is a greater risk to people who catch it?

No. Importantly, the increased level does not signify an increased risk. Currently, the virus is affecting younger people with just one case in Scotland over 65 and there have been few deaths and none in Scotland. Unless the virus mutates later in the year it will be no more dangerous than normal seasonal flu.

So what are the practical implications for Scotland of a pandemic?

According to health secretary Nicola Sturgeon there are very few changes to how the disease is being treated in Scotland and the UK as a whole as a result of the heightened level.

The main reason for this is that Scottish and UK authorities had been treating the spread of the disease as if it were at pandemic levels prior to the WHO announcement.

However, one drawback is that the supplies of vaccines to Scotland will be slowed down because of an upsurge in demand from around the world.

What will happen with vaccinations? Should I ask my doctor for one?

No. At the beginning particular groups will be identified and targeted for vaccinations rather than patients asking for one from their doctors.

The first groups are likely to be children, who seem to be the group most at risk, and health workers with direct contact with people who have the H1N1 virus.

If previous flu vaccine strategies are followed then people with chronic conditions such as asthma will also be among those first to be offered a vaccination.



The full article contains 1853 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
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* Last Updated: 12 June 2009 12:20 AM
* Source: The Scotsman
* Location: Edinburgh
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/latestnews/Swine-flu-can39t-be-stopped.5359864.jp