1957 Pandemic 4 times more deadly than seasonal Flu?

[Jeremy]

<HR style="COLOR: #cccccc; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cccccc" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->There is a common mistake that people keep making and repeating over and over again and it really needs to be corrected.

People keep saying that:

"'1957 Asian Flu' H2N2- 70,000 lost in the U.S (about double usual bad flu season)"

Now here is the problem with this statement.

While it is true that about 35,000 people die each year from the Flu, those numbers are based off of a population of over 300,000,000.

In 1957 the population in the U.S. was 171,000,000. About half of what it is today.

Therefore, when people say that 35,000 people die each year from the flu, they are talking about 2008, not what was happening in lets say 1956.

If we use rough numbers for our analysis, we can say that there were half as many people in the U.S. in 1956 therefore we would expect about half as many deaths. So if, on average in 1956 there were 17,000 deaths each year from influenza, then having 70,000 deaths in 1957 would have been about 4 times worse than "seasonal flu".

I would appear that some people have lost the basic capability to compare apples to apples.

In conclusion, most likely the 1957 Asian Flu was 4 times more deadly than seasonal flu, not 2 times more deadly. You can't compare death rates in 1957 to 2008 and not take into account the fact that there were half as many people in the U.S.

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[Mamabird]

Re: 1957 Pandemic 4 times more deadly than seasonal Flu?

<HR style="COLOR: #cccccc; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cccccc" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->There is a common mistake that people keep making and repeating over and over again and it really needs to be corrected.

People keep saying that:

Which people? Do you have a specific example, because all of the scenario planning I have seen assumes a lot higher death rate than 70K for a 1957-like pandemic. And the 1918 scenario busts the 2 million mark.

 

[Jeremy]

Re: 1957 Pandemic 4 times more deadly than seasonal Flu?

Which people? Do you have a specific example, because all of the scenario planning I have seen assumes a lot higher death rate than 70K for a 1957-like pandemic. And the 1918 scenario busts the 2 million mark.

See slide 3.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=3974&d=1251042684

 

[Mamabird]

Re: 1957 Pandemic 4 times more deadly than seasonal Flu?

See slide 3.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=3974&d=1251042684

OK, the slide says "about double the bad flu season". Today, a bad flu season in the US can easily kill 70K Americans, no novel H1N1 needed.

 

[Jeremy]

Re: 1957 Pandemic 4 times more deadly than seasonal Flu?

OK, the slide says "about double the bad flu season". Today, a bad flu season in the US can easily kill 70K Americans, no novel H1N1 needed.

While you and I may be able to understand the subtle distinction, the average lay person cannot (in regards to flu of course).

Furthermore, when you see articles of the DHS head comparing this flu to the the 1957 outbreak, the articles usually have some type of mention to 35,000 average deaths and that 1957 had 70,000 deaths, which implies a flu that is just twice as bad as the regular flu (no really big deal).

When more likely, the 1957 was 4 times as bad, which is quite a bit of a difference.

I am more or less complaining about the lack of explanation that people get in these reports. They get pieces and have to draw conclusions for themselves, which can lead to incorrect assumptions. (take the whole vaccine vs second wave peak topic)

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: 1957 Pandemic 4 times more deadly than seasonal Flu?

I agree Jeremy.

While many reports may be factually correct, what is presented to the general public, often by unenlightened media authors, can imply something other than the actual situation. Just talk to the ordinary unconcerned person and see what their impression is - that is what we're really dealing with.

.

 

[Snowy Owl]

Re: 1957 Pandemic 4 times more deadly than seasonal Flu?

I agree Jeremy,

Is it to keep people cool about it, I wouldn't say it.

The problems with such way of presenting things (playing with numbers without solide referers) is that it feeds conspiration theory, it gives them legitimate argumentation to say that gov is not clear.

Maybe more people know math than washington expect I do not know but at least even if kept low profile it should be written somewhere clearly, it would help, because the conspirationists are gaining ground each time gov make a mistake.

Snowy

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: 1957 Pandemic 4 times more deadly than seasonal Flu?

The CDC index of severity, also misleading.


The index focuses less on how likely a disease will spread worldwide-that is, become a pandemic-and more upon how severe the epidemic actually is.[7] The main criterion used to measure pandemic severity will be case-fatality ratio (CFR), the percentage of deaths out of the total reported cases of the disease.[3]

The actual implementation of PSI alerts is expected to occur after the World Health Organisation (WHO) announces phase 6 influenza transmission (human to human) in the United States. This would probably result in immediate announcement of a PSI level 3-4 situation.

The analogy of "category" levels were introduced to provide an understandable connection to hurricane classification schemes, with specific reference to the recent aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Like the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, the PSI ranges from 1 to 5, with Category 1 pandemics being most mild (equivalent to seasonal flu) and level 5 being reserved for the most severe "worst-case" scenario pandemics (such as the 1918 Spanish flu).



A graphical representation of the PSI categorization schemeCDC Pandemic Severity Index chart[1] Category CFR example(s)


1 less than 0.1% seasonal flu

2 0.1% to 0.5% Asian Flu and Hong Kong Flu

3 0.5% to 1%

4 1% to 2%

5 2% or higher Spanish Flu



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_Severity_Index

 

[Snowy Owl]

Re: 1957 Pandemic 4 times more deadly than seasonal Flu?

The CDC index of severity, also misleading.


The index focuses less on how likely a disease will spread worldwide-that is, become a pandemic-and more upon how severe the epidemic actually is.[7] The main criterion used to measure pandemic severity will be case-fatality ratio (CFR), the percentage of deaths out of the total reported cases of the disease.[3]

The actual implementation of PSI alerts is expected to occur after the World Health Organisation (WHO) announces phase 6 influenza transmission (human to human) in the United States. This would probably result in immediate announcement of a PSI level 3-4 situation.

The analogy of "category" levels were introduced to provide an understandable connection to hurricane classification schemes, with specific reference to the recent aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Like the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, the PSI ranges from 1 to 5, with Category 1 pandemics being most mild (equivalent to seasonal flu) and level 5 being reserved for the most severe "worst-case" scenario pandemics (such as the 1918 Spanish flu).



A graphical representation of the PSI categorization schemeCDC Pandemic Severity Index chart[1] Category CFR example(s)


1 less than 0.1% seasonal flu

2 0.1% to 0.5% Asian Flu and Hong Kong Flu

3 0.5% to 1%

4 1% to 2%

5 2% or higher Spanish Flu



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_Severity_Index

I would say it thus
seadonnial flu
up to 5 times seasonnial flu
5 to 10 times more infected flu people
10 to 20 time more infected flu people
Over 20 times more people with the flu in months ahead

Prepare in case you become one infected.

Snowy Owl

 

[hawkeye]

Re: 1957 Pandemic 4 times more deadly than seasonal Flu?

honestly, even after this thing is done, we won't know the CFR

 

[alert]

Re: 1957 Pandemic 4 times more deadly than seasonal Flu?

Even if the virus is the same virulence worldwide (which itself is a heavy assumption), pre-existing conditions such as AIDS and TB, as well as differences in health infrastructure virtually guaranteee that the CFR will not be the same worldwide. There are patients surviving this in the USA that would certainly die if they were in rural Africa.

The best we will be able to do is after the pandemic is over, we will have estimates of deaths and cases, and be able to make an estimate of (weighted) average CFR. That estimate may very well be markedly different than your personal chance of dying if infected.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: 1957 Pandemic 4 times more deadly than seasonal Flu?

Jeremy, very insightful. Thank you.

I've been of the impression that the relevant measurement of severity is not what has happened, but what's happening now, in as close to real time as is possible to identify.

I browse the postings, searching always for the most severe and most mild, small flu events. I am watching for a transition away from what has been.

I watch the reports from areas where it may be possible for flu to evolve, based on dual infections as I've accepted as probable that flu evolves via SNP dual infections. There's another thread active now that revisits this topic, again.

What happens, based on 1918 reports, is that there appeared to be different clades of H1N1 then circulating, so in the Army camps, a mortality rate of 75% was a reality in some locations. Philly was more severe than another region, etc. Why that happened, I think is because of different clades/strains of the virus, concurrently circulating.

So, I watch for the severe as that's what is of concern.

I'm pleased that most experiencing the flu in the US to date have merely experienced a momentary intense flu, and then have fully recovered. I'm conscious that those who have beginning pneumonia are able with current drugs to stop what would otherwise be a higher mortality rate. I watch the locales in the world where access to antibiotics and ventilators is not a reality and look at those mortality rates as the "real" severity of this flu. I expect close to the same when the volume of infections in the US exceed the capacity of the local medical infrastructure. Ignorance among the US population is very high; lack of preparation is the norm.

Your point is very well taken. I'm unsure how to measure current reality against the normal human flu as a percentage.

It's still too early here to know what will happen in a few months. I'm open to watch and stay wary.