tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
BMC Infect Dis
. 2021 Sep 14;21(1):951.
doi: 10.1186/s12879-021-06585-8.
Clinical characteristics and risk factors of fatal patients with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study in Wuhan, China
Meng Jin[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zequn Lu[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 2 [/SUP], Xu Zhang[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 3 [/SUP], Yanan Wang[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 4 [/SUP], Jing Wang[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 4 [/SUP], Yimin Cai[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 2 [/SUP], Kunming Tian[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Zezhong Xiong[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Qiang Zhong[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Xiao Ran[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Chunguang Yang[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Xing Zeng[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Lu Wang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Yao Li[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Shanshan Zhang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Tianyi Dong[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Xinying Yue[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Heng Li[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Bo Liu[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Xin Chen[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Hongyuan Cui[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Jirong Qi[SUP] 9 [/SUP], Haining Fan[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Haixia Li[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Xiang-Ping Yang[SUP] 12 [/SUP], Zhiquan Hu[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Shaogang Wang[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Jun Xiao[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 13 [/SUP], Ying Wang[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 14 [/SUP], Jianbo Tian[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 15 [/SUP], Zhihua Wang[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 16 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a global pandemic, resulting in considerable mortality. The risk factors, clinical treatments, especially comprehensive risk models for COVID-19 death are urgently warranted.
Methods: In this retrospective study, 281 non-survivors and 712 survivors with propensity score matching by age, sex, and comorbidities were enrolled from January 13, 2020 to March 31, 2020.
Results: Higher SOFA, qSOFA, APACHE II and SIRS scores, hypoxia, elevated inflammatory cytokines, multi-organ dysfunction, decreased immune cell subsets, and complications were significantly associated with the higher COVID-19 death risk. In addition to traditional predictors for death risk, including APACHE II (AUC = 0.83), SIRS (AUC = 0.75), SOFA (AUC = 0.70) and qSOFA scores (AUC = 0.61), another four prediction models that included immune cells subsets (AUC = 0.90), multiple organ damage biomarkers (AUC = 0.89), complications (AUC = 0.88) and inflammatory-related indexes (AUC = 0.75) were established. Additionally, the predictive accuracy of combining these risk factors (AUC = 0.950) was also significantly higher than that of each risk group alone, which was significant for early clinical management for COVID-19.
Conclusions: The potential risk factors could help to predict the clinical prognosis of COVID-19 patients at an early stage. The combined model might be more suitable for the death risk evaluation of COVID-19.
Keywords: COVID-19; Death risk; Immune cells subsets; Risk prediction models.
. 2021 Sep 14;21(1):951.
doi: 10.1186/s12879-021-06585-8.
Clinical characteristics and risk factors of fatal patients with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study in Wuhan, China
Meng Jin[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zequn Lu[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 2 [/SUP], Xu Zhang[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 3 [/SUP], Yanan Wang[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 4 [/SUP], Jing Wang[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 4 [/SUP], Yimin Cai[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 2 [/SUP], Kunming Tian[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Zezhong Xiong[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Qiang Zhong[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Xiao Ran[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Chunguang Yang[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Xing Zeng[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Lu Wang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Yao Li[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Shanshan Zhang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Tianyi Dong[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Xinying Yue[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Heng Li[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Bo Liu[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Xin Chen[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Hongyuan Cui[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Jirong Qi[SUP] 9 [/SUP], Haining Fan[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Haixia Li[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Xiang-Ping Yang[SUP] 12 [/SUP], Zhiquan Hu[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Shaogang Wang[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Jun Xiao[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 13 [/SUP], Ying Wang[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 14 [/SUP], Jianbo Tian[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 15 [/SUP], Zhihua Wang[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 16 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34521370
- DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06585-8
Abstract
Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a global pandemic, resulting in considerable mortality. The risk factors, clinical treatments, especially comprehensive risk models for COVID-19 death are urgently warranted.
Methods: In this retrospective study, 281 non-survivors and 712 survivors with propensity score matching by age, sex, and comorbidities were enrolled from January 13, 2020 to March 31, 2020.
Results: Higher SOFA, qSOFA, APACHE II and SIRS scores, hypoxia, elevated inflammatory cytokines, multi-organ dysfunction, decreased immune cell subsets, and complications were significantly associated with the higher COVID-19 death risk. In addition to traditional predictors for death risk, including APACHE II (AUC = 0.83), SIRS (AUC = 0.75), SOFA (AUC = 0.70) and qSOFA scores (AUC = 0.61), another four prediction models that included immune cells subsets (AUC = 0.90), multiple organ damage biomarkers (AUC = 0.89), complications (AUC = 0.88) and inflammatory-related indexes (AUC = 0.75) were established. Additionally, the predictive accuracy of combining these risk factors (AUC = 0.950) was also significantly higher than that of each risk group alone, which was significant for early clinical management for COVID-19.
Conclusions: The potential risk factors could help to predict the clinical prognosis of COVID-19 patients at an early stage. The combined model might be more suitable for the death risk evaluation of COVID-19.
Keywords: COVID-19; Death risk; Immune cells subsets; Risk prediction models.