tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
BMC Public Health
. 2025 Jul 15;25(1):2459.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-23648-6. The optimal strategy for seasonal influenza vaccination to prevent high-intensity level of influenza epidemics in Zhejiang, China: an integrated transmission-dynamic and health-economic modeling analysis
Mengsha Chen[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mengya Yang[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 2 [/SUP], Rui Yan[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhengwei Liu[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Can Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Rongrong Qu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wenkai Zhou[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jiaxing Qi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Kexin Cao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jiani Miao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xiaoyue Wu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jiaxin Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Qianqian Feng[SUP] 1 [/SUP], HuiHui Zhang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Anqi Dai[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yi Yang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jingtong Zhou[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Qin Chen[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Jimin Sun[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Shigui Yang[SUP] 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Background: Although Seasonal Influenza Vaccination (SIV) is a crucial preventive measure, achieving sufficient coverage to completely control influenza epidemics poses a significant challenge. This study aims to evaluate optimal strategies for SIV to prevent high-intensity level of influenza epidemics in Zhejiang Province, China. High-intensity outbreaks were defined as weekly incidence rates above 72.2 per 100,000.
Methods: This study estimated the incidence of influenza from 2018 to 2023 in Zhejiang Province, China, using influenza weekly surveillance data. We developed a Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (SVIRS) model to simulate influenza transmission and used a decision tree to assess seven vaccination strategies aimed at preventing high-intensity influenza outbreaks. These strategies differed in vaccine coverage across the three age groups: 0-14 years, 15-59 years, and 60 + years, despite having the same overall vaccination coverage.
Results: Between 2018 and 2020, influenza incidence in Zhejiang Province followed typical seasonal patterns. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, these patterns became irregular, culminating in a high-intensity influenza season in 2022-2023. Model simulations indicated that increasing population-wide vaccination coverage to 36.17% could effectively prevent outbreaks from escalating to high-intensity levels. Among various allocation strategies for additional vaccines, targeting individuals aged 0-14 years and those aged 60 years and older was found to be the most effective. This approach reduced the peak weekly incidence rate from the observed 182.83 to a predicted 42.28 per 100,000, saved 23.45 CNY per capita, and yielded a health gain of 0.0102 quality-adjusted life days (QALDs) per person.
Conclusion: Achieving a population-wide vaccination coverage beyond 36.17% is projected to prevent high-intensity level of influenza epidemics. Targeting the 0-14 years and 60 + years age groups proves to be the most cost-effective strategy under constrained coverage conditions. These findings highlight the importance of age-prioritized vaccination policies to optimize resource allocation and mitigate the impact of influenza outbreaks, particularly in regions with limited healthcare capacity.
Keywords: Decision tree; Optimal vaccination strategy; Seasonal influenza vaccination; Susceptible-vaccinated-infectious-recovered-susceptible model.
. 2025 Jul 15;25(1):2459.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-23648-6. The optimal strategy for seasonal influenza vaccination to prevent high-intensity level of influenza epidemics in Zhejiang, China: an integrated transmission-dynamic and health-economic modeling analysis
Mengsha Chen[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mengya Yang[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 2 [/SUP], Rui Yan[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhengwei Liu[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Can Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Rongrong Qu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wenkai Zhou[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jiaxing Qi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Kexin Cao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jiani Miao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xiaoyue Wu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jiaxin Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Qianqian Feng[SUP] 1 [/SUP], HuiHui Zhang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Anqi Dai[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yi Yang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jingtong Zhou[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Qin Chen[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Jimin Sun[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Shigui Yang[SUP] 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 40665279
- DOI: 10.1186/s12889-025-23648-6
Background: Although Seasonal Influenza Vaccination (SIV) is a crucial preventive measure, achieving sufficient coverage to completely control influenza epidemics poses a significant challenge. This study aims to evaluate optimal strategies for SIV to prevent high-intensity level of influenza epidemics in Zhejiang Province, China. High-intensity outbreaks were defined as weekly incidence rates above 72.2 per 100,000.
Methods: This study estimated the incidence of influenza from 2018 to 2023 in Zhejiang Province, China, using influenza weekly surveillance data. We developed a Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (SVIRS) model to simulate influenza transmission and used a decision tree to assess seven vaccination strategies aimed at preventing high-intensity influenza outbreaks. These strategies differed in vaccine coverage across the three age groups: 0-14 years, 15-59 years, and 60 + years, despite having the same overall vaccination coverage.
Results: Between 2018 and 2020, influenza incidence in Zhejiang Province followed typical seasonal patterns. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, these patterns became irregular, culminating in a high-intensity influenza season in 2022-2023. Model simulations indicated that increasing population-wide vaccination coverage to 36.17% could effectively prevent outbreaks from escalating to high-intensity levels. Among various allocation strategies for additional vaccines, targeting individuals aged 0-14 years and those aged 60 years and older was found to be the most effective. This approach reduced the peak weekly incidence rate from the observed 182.83 to a predicted 42.28 per 100,000, saved 23.45 CNY per capita, and yielded a health gain of 0.0102 quality-adjusted life days (QALDs) per person.
Conclusion: Achieving a population-wide vaccination coverage beyond 36.17% is projected to prevent high-intensity level of influenza epidemics. Targeting the 0-14 years and 60 + years age groups proves to be the most cost-effective strategy under constrained coverage conditions. These findings highlight the importance of age-prioritized vaccination policies to optimize resource allocation and mitigate the impact of influenza outbreaks, particularly in regions with limited healthcare capacity.
Keywords: Decision tree; Optimal vaccination strategy; Seasonal influenza vaccination; Susceptible-vaccinated-infectious-recovered-susceptible model.