Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
I was wondering about 1957 and found this. Seems to say that 1957 did not impact the young as much as the current outbreak. They can only say the future is unpredictable and good thing the outbreak is relatively 'mild' since our health care system is deteriorated since 1957. (Of course, a few can still afford excellent care, I'm sure.)
http://www.upmc-cbn.org/
CBN Report
2009 H1N1 Influenza Update:
October 22, 2009
Cases, Hospitalizations, and Mortality
Rambhia K, Watson M, Sell TK, Nuzzo J, Toner E
Conclusions and Commentary
The timing and magnitude of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic is earlier and greater than typically observed with seasonal influenza. This pattern is similar to that observed during the 1957 pandemic; however, this year?s pandemic has largely spared the elderly.9 This difference limits our ability to extrapolate from 1957 data to estimate the numbers of infections and deaths that will ultimately be caused by the 2009 H1N1 influenza.10 With currently available data, it is also difficult to determine the proportion of 2009 H1N1 cases that will likely require hospitalization or develop serious complications. This makes it difficult to estimate the ultimate burden on hospitals as well.
Although a precise description of the epidemiology of this pandemic (e.g., attack rate, hospitalization rate, and case fatality rate) is not yet possible, at this point, it is clear that this pandemic is relatively mild, which is similar to the last 2 pandemics in 1968 and 1957.11 However, the predilection for infection of children and young adults and the small fraction of patients who require extraordinary amounts of intensive care have created unexpected challenges. To date, the largest burden has fallen on emergency departments and ICUs, with a small percentage of ICU patients requiring an extraordinary amount of medical resources. Patients requiring extensive resources, intensive care, and, in some cases, rescue measures, place a burden on hospitals greater than their numbers alone suggest.
Changes in our healthcare system over the last several decades have reduced our nation?s capacity to accommodate sudden surges in the number of sick people. The result is the stress currently being experienced by many emergency departments and ICUs. It is fortunate that the pandemic is not any worse than it is.
http://www.upmc-cbn.org/
CBN Report
2009 H1N1 Influenza Update:
October 22, 2009
Cases, Hospitalizations, and Mortality
Rambhia K, Watson M, Sell TK, Nuzzo J, Toner E
Conclusions and Commentary
The timing and magnitude of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic is earlier and greater than typically observed with seasonal influenza. This pattern is similar to that observed during the 1957 pandemic; however, this year?s pandemic has largely spared the elderly.9 This difference limits our ability to extrapolate from 1957 data to estimate the numbers of infections and deaths that will ultimately be caused by the 2009 H1N1 influenza.10 With currently available data, it is also difficult to determine the proportion of 2009 H1N1 cases that will likely require hospitalization or develop serious complications. This makes it difficult to estimate the ultimate burden on hospitals as well.
Although a precise description of the epidemiology of this pandemic (e.g., attack rate, hospitalization rate, and case fatality rate) is not yet possible, at this point, it is clear that this pandemic is relatively mild, which is similar to the last 2 pandemics in 1968 and 1957.11 However, the predilection for infection of children and young adults and the small fraction of patients who require extraordinary amounts of intensive care have created unexpected challenges. To date, the largest burden has fallen on emergency departments and ICUs, with a small percentage of ICU patients requiring an extraordinary amount of medical resources. Patients requiring extensive resources, intensive care, and, in some cases, rescue measures, place a burden on hospitals greater than their numbers alone suggest.
Changes in our healthcare system over the last several decades have reduced our nation?s capacity to accommodate sudden surges in the number of sick people. The result is the stress currently being experienced by many emergency departments and ICUs. It is fortunate that the pandemic is not any worse than it is.