tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Am J Epidemiol. 2017 Oct 19. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwx336. [Epub ahead of print]
[h=1]Characterizing and Comparing the Seasonality of Influenza-Like Illnesses and Invasive Pneumococcal Diseases Using Seasonal Waveforms.[/h] Domenech de Cell?s M, Arduin H, Varon E, Souty C, Bo?lle PY, L?vy-Bruhl D, van der Werf S, Soulary JC, Guillemot D, Watier L, Opatowski L.
[h=3]Abstract[/h] The seasonalities of influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) and invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPDs) remain incompletely understood. Experimental evidence indicates that influenza-virus infection predisposes to pneumococcal disease, so that a correspondence in the seasonal patterns of ILIs and IPDs might exist at the population level. We developed a method to characterize seasonality by means of easily interpretable summary statistics of seasonal shape-or seasonal waveforms. Non-linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate those waveforms based on weekly case reports of ILIs and IPDs in five regions spanning continental France from July 2000 to June 2014. We found high variability of ILI seasonality, with marked fluctuations of peak amplitudes and peak times, but a more conserved epidemic duration. In contrast, IPD seasonality was best modeled by a markedly regular seasonal baseline, punctuated by two winter peaks in late December-early January and January-February. Comparing ILI and IPD seasonal waveforms, we found indication of a small, positive correlation. Direct models regressing IPDs on ILIs provided comparable results, even though they estimated moderately larger associations. The method proposed is broadly applicable to diseases with unambiguous seasonality and is well-suited to analyze spatially or temporally grouped data, which are common in epidemiology.
? The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] infectious disease seasonality; influenza; influenza-like illnesses; invasive pneumococcal diseases; mixed-effects models; pneumococcus; seasonal waveforms
PMID: 29053767 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwx336
[h=1]Characterizing and Comparing the Seasonality of Influenza-Like Illnesses and Invasive Pneumococcal Diseases Using Seasonal Waveforms.[/h] Domenech de Cell?s M, Arduin H, Varon E, Souty C, Bo?lle PY, L?vy-Bruhl D, van der Werf S, Soulary JC, Guillemot D, Watier L, Opatowski L.
[h=3]Abstract[/h] The seasonalities of influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) and invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPDs) remain incompletely understood. Experimental evidence indicates that influenza-virus infection predisposes to pneumococcal disease, so that a correspondence in the seasonal patterns of ILIs and IPDs might exist at the population level. We developed a method to characterize seasonality by means of easily interpretable summary statistics of seasonal shape-or seasonal waveforms. Non-linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate those waveforms based on weekly case reports of ILIs and IPDs in five regions spanning continental France from July 2000 to June 2014. We found high variability of ILI seasonality, with marked fluctuations of peak amplitudes and peak times, but a more conserved epidemic duration. In contrast, IPD seasonality was best modeled by a markedly regular seasonal baseline, punctuated by two winter peaks in late December-early January and January-February. Comparing ILI and IPD seasonal waveforms, we found indication of a small, positive correlation. Direct models regressing IPDs on ILIs provided comparable results, even though they estimated moderately larger associations. The method proposed is broadly applicable to diseases with unambiguous seasonality and is well-suited to analyze spatially or temporally grouped data, which are common in epidemiology.
? The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] infectious disease seasonality; influenza; influenza-like illnesses; invasive pneumococcal diseases; mixed-effects models; pneumococcus; seasonal waveforms
PMID: 29053767 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwx336