Laidback Al
Well-known member
Map of H7N9 hot spots outside of Shanghai
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China - Map of H7N9 hot spots outside of Shanghai
- Thread starter Laidback Al
- Start date
Re: China - Map of H7N9 hot spots outside of Shanghai
On another note: the term "hot spots" reminded me of the chronological onset and location map. IMO, the map looked similar to a few wildfire maps I've seen where the larger fire sends burning embers into the atmosphere that start smaller fires around it - often in the same general direction. Some of those surrounding fires light up, others smolder - dependent on fuel source, terrain, atmospheric conditions, etc...
China has a lot of fuel for "hot spots."
Although, depending on which 1918 origination scenario one thinks is most accurate - Haskell, Kansas; Asian source; or France source; etc... - fuel may or may not matter at the beginning.
On another note: the term "hot spots" reminded me of the chronological onset and location map. IMO, the map looked similar to a few wildfire maps I've seen where the larger fire sends burning embers into the atmosphere that start smaller fires around it - often in the same general direction. Some of those surrounding fires light up, others smolder - dependent on fuel source, terrain, atmospheric conditions, etc...
China has a lot of fuel for "hot spots."
Although, depending on which 1918 origination scenario one thinks is most accurate - Haskell, Kansas; Asian source; or France source; etc... - fuel may or may not matter at the beginning.
NS1
Well-known member
Re: China - Map of H7N9 hot spots outside of Shanghai
We all know that spread occurs in an arc, but spread is Stage 2, a separate process that begins only after a virus is established in a new host. Stage 1, Ignition, when traced carefully, may be found often as multi-focal and spontaneous.
Non-intuitive ignition may be seen in the recent GeneWurx prediction and validation of non-contiguous human H7N9 spontaneous emergence in land-locked Hunan province: Passerines Fly Higher than Poultry [FT#495364].
Based on a novel mechanism of genetic tracing that cross-references human clinical outcomes, calculations (guided by the recognition of a sub-segment antigen adaptation method) supported Ignition of emergent human cases in Guizhou and Hunan. We understood from the start that cases in Guizhou would not be reported. Non-contiguous emergent H7N9 (no geographic arc) for a human Hunan case was reported on the 27th of April with a case onset of 2013-04-14.
Human re-hosting will always occur when viral particles with the right receptor binding genetics are in proximity. That much is non-bypassable. If the new viral strain is successfully competitive over standing infective influenzas, then Ignition becomes pandemic.
But it all starts at the animal-man interface, at the contact vector that is also frequently the viral transportation. Outside of exceptional situations where innate immunity is improbably high or low in a vector-proximal, ignitable population, mankind as an effector (the fuel) is not so important.
Related Reading
Remarks on
Host-Transition
Adaptation
in
Transport Vector Species
Adaptation
in
Transport Vector Species
Ignition v. Spread
Adaptation method and rate within the transport vector are the primary effectors at the beginning of a true influenza zoonotic. Reservoir dynamics are paramount to this process of avian-to-mammal bridging. The number and geographic dispersal of vector organisms (Passerines, Anser, Anas, et al) that are able to transport the host-switching virus describes the commonly found geographic outliers during similar times of ignition.We all know that spread occurs in an arc, but spread is Stage 2, a separate process that begins only after a virus is established in a new host. Stage 1, Ignition, when traced carefully, may be found often as multi-focal and spontaneous.
Non-intuitive ignition may be seen in the recent GeneWurx prediction and validation of non-contiguous human H7N9 spontaneous emergence in land-locked Hunan province: Passerines Fly Higher than Poultry [FT#495364].
Based on a novel mechanism of genetic tracing that cross-references human clinical outcomes, calculations (guided by the recognition of a sub-segment antigen adaptation method) supported Ignition of emergent human cases in Guizhou and Hunan. We understood from the start that cases in Guizhou would not be reported. Non-contiguous emergent H7N9 (no geographic arc) for a human Hunan case was reported on the 27th of April with a case onset of 2013-04-14.
Human re-hosting will always occur when viral particles with the right receptor binding genetics are in proximity. That much is non-bypassable. If the new viral strain is successfully competitive over standing infective influenzas, then Ignition becomes pandemic.
But it all starts at the animal-man interface, at the contact vector that is also frequently the viral transportation. Outside of exceptional situations where innate immunity is improbably high or low in a vector-proximal, ignitable population, mankind as an effector (the fuel) is not so important.
Related Reading
- GeneWurx Cross Serotype Homology Analysis, Open-Access, Full-Text version
- Human Emergent H7N9 from Zhejiang Province
- Environment Emergent H7N9 from Zhejiang
- Fatal H5N1 Homology to Emergent H7N9 from Shanghai in March
- Mammalian Adaptation of Emergent H7N9 Neuraminidase in Jiangsu
- TamiFlu Resistance via NA 292K in Taiwan and Shanghai
- Zhejiang Fatal H7N9 with Divergent NA, PB2 701N and Aberrant PA
- Novel PB2, Divergent PB1 & Novel PA from First Fujian Case
- China - H7N9 Human Isolates on Deposit at GISAID, Comprehensive Genetics Discussion
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