Crisis over? Mexico makes strange move

[BeauD]

OK - I am confused. What has changed in the last day? Either it was never as bad as they said it was or there is some other reason for them doing this? Economic?

I would like to hear some discussion on this. Have we been jerked around? Is Mexico making a bad move?

According to Mexico the crisis is over
http://www.reuters.com/article/fundsFundsN...435230420090504

Something doesn't add up here.

1. It isn't a pandemic (which officially it isn't - but still according to CDC and WHO it is spreading swiftly)
2. Wouldn't the disease still be spreading just as much today in Mexico as it was a week ago?
3. What changed?
4. If the crisis is over in Mexico then it is over here, as well. As Mexico goes so goes America.



MEXICO CITY, May 4 (Reuters) - Mexico will resume normal business activity this week after its swine flu emergency eased, but the global flu alert triggered a trade dispute on Monday over bans on Mexican, U.S. and Canadian pork.

International tensions triggered by the new H1N1 virus, which contains mostly swine components with bits of human and avian influenzas, emerged after about 20 nations banned imports of pork, pigs and other meat from the United States, Canada and Mexico, the three most flu-affected countries. [nN04402062]

Mexico, the epicenter of the new flu outbreak which has surfaced in 21 countries, declared it was winning the battle against the flu, which has killed 26 people in the Latin American oil producer nation.

Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova told reporters on Monday the government would lift the five-day shutdown it imposed on public and business activities on May 1 after the epidemic swept across the country.

"(We will) resume, as planned, activities in the public and private sector on May 6 with recommendations on matters of health and hygiene at the workplace," Cordova said.

 

[vinny]

Re: Crisis over? Mexico makes strange move

At a guess economic pressure,they cant function if no one works.

 

[BeauD]

Re: Crisis over? Mexico makes strange move

Mexico will probably not let everyone know next time they have a new flu bug going around. They have learned a hard lesson. Their economy would soon collapse because people stopped going there.

Mild flu bug = total economic collapse. oops

 

[tropical]

Re: Crisis over? Mexico makes strange move

This (myth?) that an country economy could not be freezed for a few weeks of quarantine closure can't be true.

How things could gone up further when a country is in war mode for a period?
Why a country than not colapsed?

This posture of leaving (because of business) that one illness of whatsoever country tresspassed to an non illnessed alien country citizens, must be subjected to international laws.

So much screaming because of ad example chem. contaminated milk from imported goods, and now when to be imported is an serious bug - no problem?

Ok, if it is no problem, and all the dams could be opened,
maybe this virus have incorporated some genetic switch which after a month, force it to suicide itself ...
- that must be the any explanation why it is now vanishing in Mexico, when it starts to spread in USA, but not in XX countries also.

 

[Rocky]

Re: Crisis over? Mexico makes strange move

all clear so everyone can get together and party for Cinco De Mayo tomorrow...

Then open up the businesses while everyone is coming down with it and contageous to make sure it hits everyone again...

unbelievable...

 

[Rocky]

Re: Crisis over? Mexico makes strange move

I read that a week after there are no signs left in a person's body...

does that mean the 35,000 samples that were never tested in Mexico would also have all traces disappearing?

They might have started testing and they are all coming up negative, this virus is a tricky lil bugger...

 

[hawkeye]

Re: Crisis over? Mexico makes strange move

Yeah, they should have at least waited a couple more days.

all clear so everyone can get together and party for Cinco De Mayo tomorrow...

Then open up the businesses while everyone is coming down with it and contageous to make sure it hits everyone again...

unbelievable...

 

[Extrapolation]

Re: Crisis over? Mexico makes strange move

EDITORIAL:

Be Forewarned: . . . "that truth crushed to earth shall rise again"


Influenza virus' (of all sorts - but especially novel, new on the block emergent ones) do not speak Spanish or English - nor do they respond or recognize government edicts and administrative protocols.

If you have never been to Mexico, it has absolutely no infrastructure once you are outside of 8 or nine cities - and has only a veneer of modernity in its government and public service operations - beyond a few tourism hotels (generally owned by non-Mexican western 1st world chains) and related services -

Their health care and services - to be kind - are like ours (the US) were in the 1930's - and there is no real centralized data collection as we think of it - as most of the hospitals are private and do not even report - and they especially don't report to a central agency even garden-variety tracking of disease course - and so much less so - emergent epidemiological novel issues such as H1N1 - as in reality - beyond the veneer - there IS NO central agency to report to.

Most people who are familiar with both epidemiology and Mexico - presume it a given that there have been 20,000 H1N1 cases over the last 100 to 120 days - nationwide of varying virulence - since its emergence - since January - and NOT begining on March 18th as when Mexico claims it "discovered" the virus' presence in their country -

Consider these invisible "facts" - (only invisible to us outside of Mexico and reliant on Mexican government reporting - which as a practical matter is an oxymoron) when you attempt to make sense out of the behavior of a Government overseeing a dysfunctional 1930's health care system - - ahhhhh - that is Mexico.

PS - as to the comment - (paraphrased) "as goes Mexico, so goes the USA" you are half right - but not for the reasons you mention -

Consider hypothetically if you wish - that Mexico began their 'epidemic' most likely in late January - one could therefore draw a time-line that says the 'Mexican virus' has been rolling around like dice in Mexico and its populous for 12 to 14 weeks -

Whereas the US has only had it "rolling around" our populous like dice for 2 to 3 weeks (at the outside) -

Therefore - as to the US 'virus' - we (the US and the rest of the world for that matter) have another 8 to 9 weeks to "get" where Mexico is TODAY - think Bell curve.

Just something to think about - as we count the minutes, hours and days as we watch a very H2H friendly (and so called) 'mild virus' - - go as Mexico goes - over the next days and weeks - and think of this when in the next 24 to 48 hours - WHO moves "inexplicably" to LEVEL 6.

 

[wotan]

Re: Crisis over? Mexico makes strange move

Perhaps this belongs in a separate thread (and please move it if it does) but since it came up in this editorial I will ask here. I am seeing increasing speculation (from flutrackers.com) that this has been spreading since before March. I see no reason to disbelieve that. I have been to the non-tourist parts of Mexico and I would not be at all surprised about a lack of any good reporting. Who says, however, that this strain actually got started in Mexico?

Does anyone know what type(s) of Influenza A was/were in the 2008-2009 vaccine in the US?

Back in January my daughter, who has never been to Mexico, had a routine appointment with her pulmonologist. She had no symptoms of anything, it was a routine appointment with a routine throat culture, to check for things such as pseudomonas. That culture came back positive for (non-MRSA) staph. She also started developing symptoms, a moderately high fever, coughing, etc. I don't remember what all. So we went back to her pulmonologist. The did a chest xray for pneumonia (negative!) and another test, which came back positive for RSV, Influenza A, and Influenza B. Now, she had been vaccinated as soon as it was available since she is in a high risk group. At the time I thought it odd that she had two types of flu but I know the vaccine isn't fool-proof.

I'm sure they didn't type the Influenza A, but I kind of wish they did. Which brings me back to my earlier question, does anyone know what was in this year's vaccine? I have to wonder if the current swine flu may have had its origins at least partially in something that was circulating among people earlier this year.

 

[tropical]

Re: Crisis over? Mexico makes strange move

...
Does anyone know what type(s) of Influenza A was/were in the 2008-2009 vaccine in the US?
...

Look at the FluTrackers links for vaccines, or search FT about it (the same must be on the CDC/WHO web site).

There were few threads with published the exact composition of the North and South hemisphere seasonal flu vaccine strains.

 

[FrenchieGirl]

Re: Crisis over? Mexico makes strange move

Most people who are familiar with both epidemiology and Mexico - presume it a given that there have been 20,000 H1N1 cases over the last 100 to 120 days - nationwide of varying virulence - since its emergence - since January - and NOT begining on March 18th as when Mexico claims it "discovered" the virus' presence in their country -

Consider these invisible "facts" - (only invisible to us outside of Mexico and reliant on Mexican government reporting - which as a practical matter is an oxymoron) when you attempt to make sense out of the behavior of a Government overseeing a dysfunctional 1930's health care system - - ahhhhh - that is Mexico.

PS - as to the comment - (paraphrased) "as goes Mexico, so goes the USA" you are half right - but not for the reasons you mention -

Consider hypothetically if you wish - that Mexico began their 'epidemic' most likely in late January - one could therefore draw a time-line that says the 'Mexican virus' has been rolling around like dice in Mexico and its populous for 12 to 14 weeks -

Whereas the US has only had it "rolling around" our populous like dice for 2 to 3 weeks (at the outside) -

Therefore - as to the US 'virus' - we (the US and the rest of the world for that matter) have another 8 to 9 weeks to "get" where Mexico is TODAY - think Bell curve.

Just something to think about - as we count the minutes, hours and days as we watch a very H2H friendly (and so called) 'mild virus' - - go as Mexico goes - over the next days and weeks - and think of this when in the next 24 to 48 hours - WHO moves "inexplicably" to LEVEL 6.

I wonder what exactly is or has been going on. You see, if the epidemic has started in Mexico as early as January or even February, and considering the amount of travelling between Mexico and the US or Europe, how come then, that no-other country reported any suspicious flus, despite widespread surveillance in industrialised countries. I find it difficult to believe that the workers in the labs who analyse the usual flus would not have said/done anything if they saw something unusual - not in all these industrialised countries.

The curves of the seasonal flus in US look normal, at least to my layperson's eyes. The only answer may be if (and I am not knowledgeable enough to say whether the following could have happened), if and only if, the new strain already replaced the seasonal one, and had striking similarities with it. Especially since many seasonal flu As are not further subtyped anyway. However, and there's a big question with my theory which is, why then, in the few samples that may have been subtyped, was there no recognition of an unusual H1N1 strain (bar the three, only three, cases of swine flu with novel virus in weeks 3, 8 and 46 of this season)?

I find it difficult to wrap around my mind that all figures and facts may have been creatively cooked until it was no further possible to hide what was coming. That would imply complicity well beyond one or two individuals and involve large slices of workers/managers. It seems to me it would have been impossible to do that, seeing that so many of us have been on the lookout for so many years for a pandemic to happen.

So short, of that, what could have happened? Even an accidental lab virus escape or a contaminated bad lot of vaccine does not seem to fit in with what is going on.

 

[Extrapolation]

Re: Crisis over? Mexico makes strange move

In support of my post # 8 above - from Associated Press (AP)


MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexico announced a return to "normalcy" on Monday, preparing to reopen businesses and schools even as the virus sickened more than 1,400 people in 20 countries. World health officials said the global epidemic is still in its early stages, and that a pandemic could be declared in the days to come.

But Mexico's president said it was waning at its epicenter, justifying Wednesday's end to a five-day nationwide shutdown he credits for reducing the spread of the new virus.

SNIP

"The school schedule will resume with the guarantee that our educational institutions are in adequate hygienic condition," promised Calderon, who called on parents to join educators in a "collective" cleansing and inspection of schools nationwide.

"This is about going back to normalcy but with everyone taking better care," Calderon said.

Parents and teachers will turn away children who appear sick. The government is spending $15 million for detergent, bleach and soap to clean buildings, in a country where 12 percent of the nearly 250,000 schools — about 30,000 — lack running water or bathrooms.

SNIP

And experts inside Mexico's swine flu crisis center warned that the virus remains active throughout Mexico and could bounce back once millions return to work and school. It also may get worse north of the border.

"The bottom line is that there hasn't been time for the severe illnesses to perhaps show up in the U.S. yet," Marc-Alain Widdowson, a medical epidemiologist from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told The Associated Press.

SNIP

But other experts said the known cases are almost certainly only a fraction of what's out there, meaning more illnesses could surface once crowds gather again in Mexico.

"It's clear that it's just about everywhere in Mexico. I think now there is considerable person-to-person transmission," Widdowson said. And now that the virus is taking off in the U.S., chances of severe cases could rise as well.

"We've seen in many of the cases in Mexico, there's been sometimes five to seven days of being mildly ill with increasing respiratory distress and then being hospitalized, and then spending five days or a week in hospital, so that's a timeline of two weeks," he said.

SNIP

The WHO was studying whether to raise the pandemic alert to 6, its highest level, which would mean a global outbreak has begun. WHO uses the term pandemic to refer to geographic spread rather than severity. Pandemics aren't necessarily deadly. The past two pandemics — in 1957 and 1968 — were relatively mild.

The Southern Hemisphere is particularly at risk. [Ed: BRAZIL]

While Africa still hasn't reported any swine flu infections and New Zealand is the only country south of the equator with confirmed cases, winter is only weeks away. Experts worry that typical winter flus could combine with swine flu, creating a new strain that is more contagious or dangerous.

Mexico's Economy Secretary, Gerardo Ruiz, said Mexico will bring the issue to the World Trade Organization if other countries don't drop restrictive measures.

- End

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...MM_EQD97VPHNG0

 

[Extrapolation]

Re: Crisis over? Mexico makes strange move

Malum consilium quod mutari non potest
(translation: it's a bad plan that can't be changed.)



Mexico declares epidemic to be waning

MEXICO CITY: Mexican officials lowered their A(H1N1) flu alert level in the capital yesterday, and plan to allow cafes, museums and libraries to reopen this week, while world health officials weighed raising their pandemic alert to the highest level.

Mexican officials declared the epidemic to be waning, announcing that tomorrow will conclude a five-day closure of nonessential businesses that was called to stop the spread of the new virus. Health officials need to finish inspecting schools before students can return to class.

Global health experts however said it was too early to make lower guard, but there were no imminent plans to raise the pandemic alert level.

In New York yesterday, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the World Health Organization (WHO) "has no plan to raise the alert level to 6 at this moment." WHO chief Margaret Chan also told the UN General Assembly by videolink from Geneva that "we are not there yet."

In an interview with the Spanish newspaper El Pais published yesterday, Chan implied the agency might raise its alert. She played down the impact of going to level 6, saying she was concerned about causing unnecessary panic.

WHO spokesman Thomas Abraham said the comments appeared to be consistent with what the global body has said all along. "We have consistently said a pandemic is imminent. It's only a matter of time before we move to phase 6 unless the virus suddenly becomes weaker and dies off," he said.

According to the WHO's pandemic phase definitions, being in level 5 means the agency believes a global outbreak is "imminent." Though Mexican authorities believe the outbreak may have peaked, WHO maintains it is still too early to tell if the outbreak is slowing down.

WHO also emphasized that a pandemic did not necessarily mean the disease was particularly deadly. The past two pandemics - in 1957 and 1968 - have been relatively mild. WHO said that the term pandemic refers to a disease's geographic spread - in all countries worldwide - rather than its severity.

1st case in S. America

While Mexico began its first steps toward normalcy, the virus spread to Colombia in the first confirmed case in South America, where flu season is about to begin. More cases were confirmed in North America and Europe - including Portugal's first - with the total number sickened worldwide rising to more than a 1,000 people, according to health and government officials.

With the scope of the disease unknown, several countries have taken urgent measures against arriving Mexicans or those who have recently traveled to Mexico.

Health officials raised the number of confirmed US H1N1 flu cases to 245 in 35 states late on Sunday. The new number reflects streamlining in federal procedures and the results of tests by states, which have only recently begun confirming cases, said Dr Anne Schuchat of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The CDC's acting chief, Dr Richard Besser, said H1N1 flu is spreading just as easily as regular winter flu.

AP - (China Daily 05/05/2009 page12) - All rights reserved