Egypt - FAO report dated February 26 suggests 80 H5N1 bird flu cases including 30 deaths for 2015 - WHO clarification requested

[sharon sanders]

http://cdn.aphca.org/dmdocuments/Avian Infuenza Alert/Influenza_update_260215.pdf


Our case list has 80 cases and 21 deaths for 2015 year to date.

Hopefully a new WHO update will clarify the situation.


hat tip Michael Coston for the link

 

[sharon sanders]

hat tip Michael Coston for working through the numbers


snip

While we are hampered by the Egyptian MOH?s reluctance to discuss or divulge case information (except, presumably to the WHO per the IHR), we know from the FAO, media, and World Health Organization reports that over the past four months Egypt has seen the largest outbreak of H5N1 in humans since the virus emerged nearly 20 years ago.

The MOH (and by extension, the Egyptian press) stopped updating case counts in January, and so we get dubious headlines and reportage like this week?s Two die from bird flu bringing Egypt's 2015 death toll to 10, which doesn?t even come close to reflecting reality.
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FluTracker?s conservatively curated Egypt - 2015 WHO/MoH/Provincial Health Depts H5N1 Confirmed Case List puts the number at nearly 80 cases, and at least 21 deaths since the start of the year (note: deaths are harder to quantify because follow up reports are less likely to be printed in the media).

Numbers which tally pretty well with recent FAO and WHO dispatches.
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The most recent FAO/EMPRES Animal Influenza Update # 637 contains the following update on Egypt.

EGYPT

12, 17, 22 & 23/02/2015 - H5N1 infections in humans, Behera, Cairo, Giza, Dakahlia, Fayoum, Iskandariyah, Menia, Menoufia,Qina, Sharkia, Sohag and Sharkia Governorates
Source: National Authorities

According to the Ministry of Health, between 9 January and 2 February 2015, 22 new human cases of H5N1 infection were detected in 13 out of Egypt?s 27 governorates namely: Asyiut (1), Behera (3), Cairo (6), Damietta (1), Fayoum (4), Giza (1), Menia (4), Menoufia (2), Qalyubia (3) and Sharkia (4), of which 8 have died. Patients affected are aged between 0.8 and 42 years old, 13 of them are less than 6 years old, and 29 cases had contacts with backyard or market poultry few days prior to illness. Of the 285 confirmed human cases in Egypt since 2006, 102 were fatal.
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Since the WHO case count sat at 177 cases and 63 deaths last October, these numbers reflect a net gain of 108 cases and 39 deaths since November 1st, 2014. Of those (based on the WHO report of January 26th), roughly 27 cases and 9 deaths reportedly occurred between November 1st and Dec 31st, 2014.

All of which leaves us in the ballpark of 80+ cases, and approximately 30 deaths in Egypt since the start of the year.

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These numbers are as of a couple of weeks ago, and as we continue to see (unconfirmed) media reports of new suspected and `confirmed? cases on a daily basis, today?s total is no doubt even higher.

The World Health Organization and the FAO are reportedly scheduled to arrive in Egypt later this month to assist the government in their bird flu response this month (see Media: WHO H5N1 Mission To Egypt).
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Hopefully their after-mission reports will provide us with a better understanding of the scope of Egypt?s H5N1 outbreak.

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2015/03/an-egyptian-h5n1-roundup.html