Eurosurv. Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 20

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Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020

• Mark Jit[SUP]1,2[/SUP], Thibaut Jombart[SUP]1,3,4[/SUP], Emily S Nightingale[SUP]1[/SUP], Akira Endo[SUP]1[/SUP], Sam Abbott[SUP]1[/SUP], LSHTM Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group[SUP]5[/SUP], W John Edmunds[SUP]1[/SUP]

An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000–173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220–319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000–797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.

full article

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632#html_fulltext