the doctor
Retired 2010
Thanks Tom for this thread.
What is clear is that we are still in the first wave that began in North America in February 2009. It has now lasted 5 months and continues to accelerate the world over. It has not diminished anywhere even in Mexico.
Some of you may know that I think there is a probability that this pandemic will present as a single prolonged wave rather than multiple short waves of a couple of months. Below I have reprinted a portion of a Chapter 1from The Coming Pandemic Catastrophe that addresses this issue.
Obviously, what we are seeing in real time is not multiple waves but a continuous wave that has now lasted longer than any wave of any prior pandemic in recorded history.
This is a fact that all of us can verify for themselves. What is important however is to consider the implications of a prolonged wave, especially one that becomes more and more severe over time.
GW
Pandemic waves, a thing of the past?
The three twentieth-century pandemics occurred in waves. While the entire event lasted for a few years, the action was compressed into two or three periods of a month or two each.4, In the United States, the 1918 Spanish Flu?s first wave was more severe than the usual seasonal flu but not all that bad. It was the second wave that re-emerged in September 1918 with a vengeance that caused ninety percent of the U.S. deaths during the pandemic. The third wave beginning the following winter in the United States resembled the first wave in severity. Over the following couple of years, there were multiple regional mini-waves worldwide that continued to harvest higher than usual numbers of people due to flu and its consequences.
The reason for the wave phenomenon is not known but was probably in part related to the speed with which humans traveled, population density, the general health of the population affected, and the intervention of the heat of summer, which in past pandemics has been observed to temporarily interrupt the spread of the virus within the human population. Modern intercontinental travel via jet aircraft by millions of persons each day will dramatically change the speed with which the next influenza pandemic moves through the world?s population. This factor, together with the highly concentrated human population within urban areas and the inherent vulnerability of our increased numbers of elderly and infirm citizens, create the conditions for a massive single tsunami-like pandemic flood that inundates the world virtually simultaneously.
An event like this might last from six to nine months depending upon what time of year it began and carry with it much higher transmission rates than seen previously. The advent of summer will temporarily halt the pandemic that will resume once more with the return of cooler weather. There would likely be subsequent wavelets of much less intensity for a year or two afterward as the pandemic virus picks off those who escaped its initial grand attack.
This scenario would result in a much higher clinical attack rate of influenza than would be the case if the pandemic occurred in discrete waves interspersed by disease-free periods as in the past. The speed of viral transmission between people will be fueled by these same factors, resulting in a significantly higher rate than projected by U.S. public health authorities. The deluge of critically ill influenza patients will rapidly overwhelm the health care system. This will result in a higher case fatality rate from the virus and crude all-cause death rate during the pandemic period than expected due to people with serious but treatable influenza complications and people critically ill with a host of common non-influenza conditions being denied access to conventional hospital care.
Also worrisome is the effect a single prolonged wave of this magnitude would have on the fragile global economy. It would be crushed by an event of this intensity. The civil unrest stemming from this occurrence would be sustained and profound. While it is impossible to predict the impact of civil disorder in prospect, during the period of anarchy that would follow, great loss of life and property is inevitable.
Uncontrolled growth of the human population and its concentration in cities since 1918 are the primary factors that place us at exceedingly high risk today from a severe influenza pandemic. The human race?s inability to control its population growth is the principal reason for our present vulnerability. The tremendous increase in grain yields through intensive farming techniques and the Green Revolution have supported the exponential growth of the human population seen in the twentieth century. Food production worldwide depends upon a large number of critical inputs whose continuous re-supply require a smooth running global economy. The advent of a severe influenza pandemic threatens the integrity of the international economy, which will disrupt food production worldwide with a legion of terrible consequences stemming from these developments.
What is clear is that we are still in the first wave that began in North America in February 2009. It has now lasted 5 months and continues to accelerate the world over. It has not diminished anywhere even in Mexico.
Some of you may know that I think there is a probability that this pandemic will present as a single prolonged wave rather than multiple short waves of a couple of months. Below I have reprinted a portion of a Chapter 1from The Coming Pandemic Catastrophe that addresses this issue.
Obviously, what we are seeing in real time is not multiple waves but a continuous wave that has now lasted longer than any wave of any prior pandemic in recorded history.
This is a fact that all of us can verify for themselves. What is important however is to consider the implications of a prolonged wave, especially one that becomes more and more severe over time.
GW
Pandemic waves, a thing of the past?
The three twentieth-century pandemics occurred in waves. While the entire event lasted for a few years, the action was compressed into two or three periods of a month or two each.4, In the United States, the 1918 Spanish Flu?s first wave was more severe than the usual seasonal flu but not all that bad. It was the second wave that re-emerged in September 1918 with a vengeance that caused ninety percent of the U.S. deaths during the pandemic. The third wave beginning the following winter in the United States resembled the first wave in severity. Over the following couple of years, there were multiple regional mini-waves worldwide that continued to harvest higher than usual numbers of people due to flu and its consequences.
The reason for the wave phenomenon is not known but was probably in part related to the speed with which humans traveled, population density, the general health of the population affected, and the intervention of the heat of summer, which in past pandemics has been observed to temporarily interrupt the spread of the virus within the human population. Modern intercontinental travel via jet aircraft by millions of persons each day will dramatically change the speed with which the next influenza pandemic moves through the world?s population. This factor, together with the highly concentrated human population within urban areas and the inherent vulnerability of our increased numbers of elderly and infirm citizens, create the conditions for a massive single tsunami-like pandemic flood that inundates the world virtually simultaneously.
An event like this might last from six to nine months depending upon what time of year it began and carry with it much higher transmission rates than seen previously. The advent of summer will temporarily halt the pandemic that will resume once more with the return of cooler weather. There would likely be subsequent wavelets of much less intensity for a year or two afterward as the pandemic virus picks off those who escaped its initial grand attack.
This scenario would result in a much higher clinical attack rate of influenza than would be the case if the pandemic occurred in discrete waves interspersed by disease-free periods as in the past. The speed of viral transmission between people will be fueled by these same factors, resulting in a significantly higher rate than projected by U.S. public health authorities. The deluge of critically ill influenza patients will rapidly overwhelm the health care system. This will result in a higher case fatality rate from the virus and crude all-cause death rate during the pandemic period than expected due to people with serious but treatable influenza complications and people critically ill with a host of common non-influenza conditions being denied access to conventional hospital care.
Also worrisome is the effect a single prolonged wave of this magnitude would have on the fragile global economy. It would be crushed by an event of this intensity. The civil unrest stemming from this occurrence would be sustained and profound. While it is impossible to predict the impact of civil disorder in prospect, during the period of anarchy that would follow, great loss of life and property is inevitable.
Uncontrolled growth of the human population and its concentration in cities since 1918 are the primary factors that place us at exceedingly high risk today from a severe influenza pandemic. The human race?s inability to control its population growth is the principal reason for our present vulnerability. The tremendous increase in grain yields through intensive farming techniques and the Green Revolution have supported the exponential growth of the human population seen in the twentieth century. Food production worldwide depends upon a large number of critical inputs whose continuous re-supply require a smooth running global economy. The advent of a severe influenza pandemic threatens the integrity of the international economy, which will disrupt food production worldwide with a legion of terrible consequences stemming from these developments.
