tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Front Med
. 2020 Jun 4.
doi: 10.1007/s11684-020-0788-3. Online ahead of print.
Linking Key Intervention Timings to Rapid Declining Effective Reproduction Number to Quantify Lessons Against COVID-19
Zhihang Peng[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wenyu Song[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhongxing Ding[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Quanquan Guan[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Xu Yang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Qiaoqiao Xu[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Xu Wang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Yankai Xia[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently under a global pandemic trend. The efficiency of containment measures and epidemic tendency of typical countries should be assessed. In this study, the efficiency of prevention and control measures in China, Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan was assessed, and the COVID-19 epidemic tendency among these countries was compared. Results showed that the effective reproduction number(Re) in Wuhan, China increased almost exponentially, reaching a maximum of 3.98 before a lockdown and rapidly decreased to below 1 due to containment and mitigation strategies of the Chinese government. The Re in Italy declined at a slower pace than that in China after the implementation of prevention and control measures. The Re in Iran showed a certain decline after the establishment of a national epidemic control command, and an evident stationary phase occurred because the best window period for the prevention and control of the epidemic was missed. The epidemic in Japan and South Korea reoccurred several times with the Re fluctuating greatly. The epidemic has hardly rebounded in China due to the implementation of prevention and control strategies and the effective enforcement of policies. Other countries suffering from the epidemic could learn from the Chinese experience in containing COVID-19.
Keywords: COVID-19; Chinese experience; epidemic control comparison.
. 2020 Jun 4.
doi: 10.1007/s11684-020-0788-3. Online ahead of print.
Linking Key Intervention Timings to Rapid Declining Effective Reproduction Number to Quantify Lessons Against COVID-19
Zhihang Peng[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wenyu Song[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhongxing Ding[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Quanquan Guan[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Xu Yang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Qiaoqiao Xu[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Xu Wang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Yankai Xia[SUP] 3 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32495288
- DOI: 10.1007/s11684-020-0788-3
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently under a global pandemic trend. The efficiency of containment measures and epidemic tendency of typical countries should be assessed. In this study, the efficiency of prevention and control measures in China, Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan was assessed, and the COVID-19 epidemic tendency among these countries was compared. Results showed that the effective reproduction number(Re) in Wuhan, China increased almost exponentially, reaching a maximum of 3.98 before a lockdown and rapidly decreased to below 1 due to containment and mitigation strategies of the Chinese government. The Re in Italy declined at a slower pace than that in China after the implementation of prevention and control measures. The Re in Iran showed a certain decline after the establishment of a national epidemic control command, and an evident stationary phase occurred because the best window period for the prevention and control of the epidemic was missed. The epidemic in Japan and South Korea reoccurred several times with the Re fluctuating greatly. The epidemic has hardly rebounded in China due to the implementation of prevention and control strategies and the effective enforcement of policies. Other countries suffering from the epidemic could learn from the Chinese experience in containing COVID-19.
Keywords: COVID-19; Chinese experience; epidemic control comparison.