tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Global rise in human infectious disease outbreaks
Katherine F. Smith1,?⇑,
Michael Goldberg1,
Samantha Rosenthal2,
Lynn Carlson3,
Jane Chen1,
Cici Chen4,? and
Sohini Ramachandran1,5,?
1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Brown University, 80 Waterman St., Box G-W, Providence, RI 02912, USA
2Department of Epidemiology, Brown University, Box G-S121-2, 121 South Main St., Providence, RI 02912, USA
3Geological Sciences, Brown University, PO Box 1846 Providence, RI 02912, USA
4Department of Biostatistics, Brown University, Box G-S121-7, 121 South Main St., Providence, RI 02912, USA
5Center for Computational Molecular Biology, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA
e-mail: katherine_smith{at}brown.edu
↵? These authors contributed equally to this study.
Abstract
To characterize the change in frequency of infectious disease outbreaks over time worldwide, we encoded and analysed a novel 33-year dataset (1980?2013) of 12 102 outbreaks of 215 human infectious diseases, comprising more than 44 million cases occuring in 219 nations. We merged these records with ecological characteristics of the causal pathogens to examine global temporal trends in the total number of outbreaks, disease richness (number of unique diseases), disease diversity (richness and outbreak evenness) and per capita cases. Bacteria, viruses, zoonotic diseases (originating in animals) and those caused by pathogens transmitted by vector hosts were responsible for the majority of outbreaks in our dataset. After controlling for disease surveillance, communications, geography and host availability, we find the total number and diversity of outbreaks, and richness of causal diseases increased significantly since 1980 (p < 0.0001). When we incorporate Internet usage into the model to control for biased reporting of outbreaks (starting 1990), the overall number of outbreaks and disease richness still increase significantly with time (p < 0.0001), but per capita cases decrease significantly (p = 0.005). Temporal trends in outbreaks differ based on the causal pathogen's taxonomy, host requirements and transmission mode. We discuss our preliminary findings in the context of global disease emergence and surveillance.
http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/11/101/20140950.abstract
Katherine F. Smith1,?⇑,
Michael Goldberg1,
Samantha Rosenthal2,
Lynn Carlson3,
Jane Chen1,
Cici Chen4,? and
Sohini Ramachandran1,5,?
1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Brown University, 80 Waterman St., Box G-W, Providence, RI 02912, USA
2Department of Epidemiology, Brown University, Box G-S121-2, 121 South Main St., Providence, RI 02912, USA
3Geological Sciences, Brown University, PO Box 1846 Providence, RI 02912, USA
4Department of Biostatistics, Brown University, Box G-S121-7, 121 South Main St., Providence, RI 02912, USA
5Center for Computational Molecular Biology, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA
e-mail: katherine_smith{at}brown.edu
↵? These authors contributed equally to this study.
Abstract
To characterize the change in frequency of infectious disease outbreaks over time worldwide, we encoded and analysed a novel 33-year dataset (1980?2013) of 12 102 outbreaks of 215 human infectious diseases, comprising more than 44 million cases occuring in 219 nations. We merged these records with ecological characteristics of the causal pathogens to examine global temporal trends in the total number of outbreaks, disease richness (number of unique diseases), disease diversity (richness and outbreak evenness) and per capita cases. Bacteria, viruses, zoonotic diseases (originating in animals) and those caused by pathogens transmitted by vector hosts were responsible for the majority of outbreaks in our dataset. After controlling for disease surveillance, communications, geography and host availability, we find the total number and diversity of outbreaks, and richness of causal diseases increased significantly since 1980 (p < 0.0001). When we incorporate Internet usage into the model to control for biased reporting of outbreaks (starting 1990), the overall number of outbreaks and disease richness still increase significantly with time (p < 0.0001), but per capita cases decrease significantly (p = 0.005). Temporal trends in outbreaks differ based on the causal pathogen's taxonomy, host requirements and transmission mode. We discuss our preliminary findings in the context of global disease emergence and surveillance.
http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/11/101/20140950.abstract