tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2015 Feb 25. doi: 10.1111/irv.12308. [Epub ahead of print]
[h=1]Influenza seasonality in Madagascar: the mysterious African free-runner.[/h] Alonso WJ[SUP]1[/SUP], Guillebaud J, Viboud C, Razanajatovo NH, Orelle A, Zhou SZ, Randrianasolo L, Heraud JM.
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]BACKGROUND:[/h] The seasonal drivers of influenza activity remain debated in tropical settings where epidemics are not clearly phased. Antananarivo is a particularly interesting case study because it is in Madagascar, an island situated in the tropics and with quantifiable connectivity levels to other countries.
[h=4]OBJECTIVES:[/h] We aimed at disentangling the role of environmental forcing and population fluxes on influenza seasonality in Madagascar METHODS: We compiled weekly counts of laboratory-confirmed influenza positive specimens for the period 2002 to 2012 collected in Antananarivo, with data available from Sub-Saharan countries and countries contributing most foreign travelers to Madagascar. Daily climate indicators were compiled for the study period.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] Overall, influenza activity detected in Antananarivo predated that identified in temperate Northern Hemisphere locations. This activity presented poor temporal matching with viral activity in other countries from the African continent or countries highly connected to Madagascar excepted for A(H1N1)pdm09. Influenza detection in Antananarivo was not associated with travel activity and, although it was positively correlated with all climatic variables studied, such association was weak.
[h=4]CONCLUSIONS:[/h] The timing of influenza activity in Antananarivo is irregular, is not driven by climate, and does not align with that of countries in geographic proximity or highly connected to Madagascar. This work opens fresh questions regarding the drivers of influenza seasonality globally in particular in mid-latitude and less-connected regions to tailor vaccine strategies locally. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Influenza; Madagascar; Population connectivity; Seasonality; Time series; Viral migration
PMID: 25711873 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
[h=1]Influenza seasonality in Madagascar: the mysterious African free-runner.[/h] Alonso WJ[SUP]1[/SUP], Guillebaud J, Viboud C, Razanajatovo NH, Orelle A, Zhou SZ, Randrianasolo L, Heraud JM.
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]BACKGROUND:[/h] The seasonal drivers of influenza activity remain debated in tropical settings where epidemics are not clearly phased. Antananarivo is a particularly interesting case study because it is in Madagascar, an island situated in the tropics and with quantifiable connectivity levels to other countries.
[h=4]OBJECTIVES:[/h] We aimed at disentangling the role of environmental forcing and population fluxes on influenza seasonality in Madagascar METHODS: We compiled weekly counts of laboratory-confirmed influenza positive specimens for the period 2002 to 2012 collected in Antananarivo, with data available from Sub-Saharan countries and countries contributing most foreign travelers to Madagascar. Daily climate indicators were compiled for the study period.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] Overall, influenza activity detected in Antananarivo predated that identified in temperate Northern Hemisphere locations. This activity presented poor temporal matching with viral activity in other countries from the African continent or countries highly connected to Madagascar excepted for A(H1N1)pdm09. Influenza detection in Antananarivo was not associated with travel activity and, although it was positively correlated with all climatic variables studied, such association was weak.
[h=4]CONCLUSIONS:[/h] The timing of influenza activity in Antananarivo is irregular, is not driven by climate, and does not align with that of countries in geographic proximity or highly connected to Madagascar. This work opens fresh questions regarding the drivers of influenza seasonality globally in particular in mid-latitude and less-connected regions to tailor vaccine strategies locally. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Influenza; Madagascar; Population connectivity; Seasonality; Time series; Viral migration
PMID: 25711873 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]