tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Int J Clin Pract
. 2021 Apr 21;e14257.
doi: 10.1111/ijcp.14257. Online ahead of print.
Combined predictive performance of age and neutrophilic percentage on admission for severe novel coronavirus disease 2019
Yuhong Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Haijun Zhi[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Kun Zhang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Guijun Zhu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Lixia Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xixin Yan[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Zhigang Cai[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Congcong Zhao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhenjie Hu[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a huge threat to the global public health. This study aimed to identify predictive indicators of severe COVID-19.
Methods: We retrospectively collected clinical data on hospital admission of all patients with severe COVID-19 and a control cohort (1:1) of gender- and hospital-matched patients with mild disease from 13 designated hospitals in the Hebei province between 22 January and 15 April 2020.
Results: A total of 104 patients (52 with severe COVID-19 and 52 with mild disease) were included. Only age, fever, duration from symptom onset to confirmation, respiratory rate, percutaneous oxygen saturation (SpO[SUB]2[/SUB] ), and neutrophilic percentage were independent predictors of severe COVID-19. Age and neutrophilic percentage performed best in predicting severe COVID-19, followed by SpO[SUB]2[/SUB] . "Age + Neutrophilic percentage" (the sum of age and neutrophilic percentage) (area under the curve [AUC] 0.900, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.825-0.950, P<0.001) and "Age and Neutrophilic percentage" (the prediction probability of age and neutrophilic percentage for severe type obtained by Logistic regression analysis) (AUC 0.899, 95% CI 0.824-0.949, P<0.001) had excellent predictive performance for severe type. The optimal cut-off for "Age + Neutrophilic percentage" was >119.1 (sensitivity, 86.5%; specificity, 84.6%; Youden index, 0.712).
Conclusion: The combination of age and neutrophil percentage could effectively predict severe COVID-19. The sum of age and neutrophil percentage was recommended for clinical application because of its excellent predictive value and practicability.
Keywords: 2019 novel coronavirus; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; age; neutrophilic percentage; severe type patients.
. 2021 Apr 21;e14257.
doi: 10.1111/ijcp.14257. Online ahead of print.
Combined predictive performance of age and neutrophilic percentage on admission for severe novel coronavirus disease 2019
Yuhong Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Haijun Zhi[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Kun Zhang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Guijun Zhu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Lixia Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xixin Yan[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Zhigang Cai[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Congcong Zhao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhenjie Hu[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33884718
- DOI: 10.1111/ijcp.14257
Abstract
Background: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a huge threat to the global public health. This study aimed to identify predictive indicators of severe COVID-19.
Methods: We retrospectively collected clinical data on hospital admission of all patients with severe COVID-19 and a control cohort (1:1) of gender- and hospital-matched patients with mild disease from 13 designated hospitals in the Hebei province between 22 January and 15 April 2020.
Results: A total of 104 patients (52 with severe COVID-19 and 52 with mild disease) were included. Only age, fever, duration from symptom onset to confirmation, respiratory rate, percutaneous oxygen saturation (SpO[SUB]2[/SUB] ), and neutrophilic percentage were independent predictors of severe COVID-19. Age and neutrophilic percentage performed best in predicting severe COVID-19, followed by SpO[SUB]2[/SUB] . "Age + Neutrophilic percentage" (the sum of age and neutrophilic percentage) (area under the curve [AUC] 0.900, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.825-0.950, P<0.001) and "Age and Neutrophilic percentage" (the prediction probability of age and neutrophilic percentage for severe type obtained by Logistic regression analysis) (AUC 0.899, 95% CI 0.824-0.949, P<0.001) had excellent predictive performance for severe type. The optimal cut-off for "Age + Neutrophilic percentage" was >119.1 (sensitivity, 86.5%; specificity, 84.6%; Youden index, 0.712).
Conclusion: The combination of age and neutrophil percentage could effectively predict severe COVID-19. The sum of age and neutrophil percentage was recommended for clinical application because of its excellent predictive value and practicability.
Keywords: 2019 novel coronavirus; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; age; neutrophilic percentage; severe type patients.