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iScience . Influenza-A mediated pre-existing immunity levels to SARS-CoV-2 could predict early COVID-19 outbreak dynamics

tetano

Editor, Senior Moderator
iScience


. 2023 Nov 14;26(12):108441.
doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.108441. eCollection 2023 Dec 15. Influenza-A mediated pre-existing immunity levels to SARS-CoV-2 could predict early COVID-19 outbreak dynamics

Nerea Martín Almazán[SUP] 1 2 3 [/SUP], Afsar Rahbar[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Marcus Carlsson[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Tove Hoffman[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Linda Kolstad[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Bengt Rönnberg[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Mattia Russel Pantalone[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Ilona Lewensohn Fuchs[SUP] 6 7 [/SUP], Anna Nauclér[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mats Ohlin[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Mariusz Sacharczuk[SUP] 9 10 [/SUP], Piotr Religa[SUP] 1 2 10 [/SUP], Stefan Amér[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Christian Molnár[SUP] 11 12 [/SUP], Åke Lundkvist[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Andres Susrud[SUP] 13 [/SUP], Birger Sörensen[SUP] 13 [/SUP], Cecilia Söderberg-Nauclér[SUP] 1 2 14 [/SUP]



Affiliations
Abstract

Susceptibility to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections is highly variable and could be mediated by a cross-protective pre-immunity. We identified 14 cross-reactive peptides between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A H1N1, H3N2, and human herpesvirus (HHV)-6A/B with potential relevance. The H1N1 peptide NGVEGF was identical to a peptide in the most critical receptor binding motif in SARS-CoV-2 spike protein that interacts with the angiotensin converting enzyme 2 receptor. About 62%-73% of COVID-19-negative blood donors in Stockholm had antibodies to this peptide in the early pre-vaccination phase of the pandemic. Seasonal flu vaccination enhanced neutralizing capacity to SARS-CoV-2 and T cell immunity to this peptide. Mathematical modeling taking the estimated pre-immunity levels to flu into account could fully predict pre-Omicron SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in Stockholm and India. This cross-immunity provides mechanistic explanations to the epidemiological observation that influenza vaccination protected people against early SARS-CoV-2 infections and implies that flu-mediated cross-protective immunity significantly dampened the first SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.

Keywords: Immune response; Immunology; Virology.

 
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