tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Infect Dis
. 2025 Feb 1:jiaf038.
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiaf038. Online ahead of print. Influenza vaccine averted illnesses in Chile, Guyana, and Paraguay during 2013-2018: a standardized approach to assess value of vaccination
Jorge H Jara[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Sergio Loayza[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Francisco Nogareda[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Paula Couto[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Miguel Angel Descalzo[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Anna N Chard[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Maria Olivares[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Natalia Vergara[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Rodrigo Fasce[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Martha Von Horoch[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Silvia Battaglia[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Elena Penayo[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Chavely Montserrat Dominguez[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Cynthia Vazquez[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Rainier Escalada[SUP] 9 [/SUP], Janice Woolford[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Fabiana Michel[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Rafael Chacón[SUP] 12 [/SUP], Ashley Fowlkes[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Laura Castro[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Martha Velandia-Gonzalez[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Marc Rondy[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Stefano Tempia[SUP] 13 [/SUP], Daniel Salas[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Background: To better establish the value of vaccination against influenza viruses, we estimated vaccine-averted influenza illnesses among young children and older adults in Chile, Guyana, and Paraguay.
Methods: We gathered country- and target population-specific data on monthly influenza hospitalizations, vaccine coverage, and vaccine effectiveness from surveillance records and immunization registries during 2013-2018. We applied a static compartmental model to estimate differences in the number influenza-associated respiratory disease events (symptomatic non-hospitalized illnesses, medically attended illnesses, hospitalizations) in the presence and absence of influenza vaccination programs.
Results: Between 2013 and 2018, vaccinating 68% of children aged 6-23 months in Chile averted an annual mean of 14,617 non-hospitalized, 9,426 medically attended, and 328 hospitalized influenza illnesses; vaccinating 28% of children aged 6-23 months in Paraguay averted 1,115 non-hospitalized, 719 medically attended, and 25 hospitalized influenza illnesses. Vaccinating 59% of older adults in Chile averted an annual mean of 83,429 non-hospitalized, 37,079 medically attended, and 1,390 hospitalized influenza illnesses; vaccinating 36% of older adults in Paraguay averted an annual mean of 3,932 non-hospitalized, 1,748 medically attended, and 66 hospitalized influenza illnesses. In Guyana, a hypothetical campaign vaccinating 30% of children <5 years could have prevented an annual 1,496 non-hospitalized, 971 medically attended, and 10 hospitalized influenza illnesses. Vaccinating 30% of adults ≥65 years could have prevented 568 non-hospitalized, 257 medically attended, and 10 hospitalized influenza illnesses.
Conclusions: Influenza vaccination averted tens of thousands of illnesses and thousands of hospitalizations in Chile and Paraguay; influenza vaccination could have had a proportional benefit in Guyana.
Keywords: Averted illness; Influenza burden; Influenza vaccine; Vaccine effectiveness.
. 2025 Feb 1:jiaf038.
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiaf038. Online ahead of print. Influenza vaccine averted illnesses in Chile, Guyana, and Paraguay during 2013-2018: a standardized approach to assess value of vaccination
Jorge H Jara[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Sergio Loayza[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Francisco Nogareda[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Paula Couto[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Miguel Angel Descalzo[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Anna N Chard[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Maria Olivares[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Natalia Vergara[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Rodrigo Fasce[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Martha Von Horoch[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Silvia Battaglia[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Elena Penayo[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Chavely Montserrat Dominguez[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Cynthia Vazquez[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Rainier Escalada[SUP] 9 [/SUP], Janice Woolford[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Fabiana Michel[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Rafael Chacón[SUP] 12 [/SUP], Ashley Fowlkes[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Laura Castro[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Martha Velandia-Gonzalez[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Marc Rondy[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Stefano Tempia[SUP] 13 [/SUP], Daniel Salas[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 39891541
- DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiaf038
Background: To better establish the value of vaccination against influenza viruses, we estimated vaccine-averted influenza illnesses among young children and older adults in Chile, Guyana, and Paraguay.
Methods: We gathered country- and target population-specific data on monthly influenza hospitalizations, vaccine coverage, and vaccine effectiveness from surveillance records and immunization registries during 2013-2018. We applied a static compartmental model to estimate differences in the number influenza-associated respiratory disease events (symptomatic non-hospitalized illnesses, medically attended illnesses, hospitalizations) in the presence and absence of influenza vaccination programs.
Results: Between 2013 and 2018, vaccinating 68% of children aged 6-23 months in Chile averted an annual mean of 14,617 non-hospitalized, 9,426 medically attended, and 328 hospitalized influenza illnesses; vaccinating 28% of children aged 6-23 months in Paraguay averted 1,115 non-hospitalized, 719 medically attended, and 25 hospitalized influenza illnesses. Vaccinating 59% of older adults in Chile averted an annual mean of 83,429 non-hospitalized, 37,079 medically attended, and 1,390 hospitalized influenza illnesses; vaccinating 36% of older adults in Paraguay averted an annual mean of 3,932 non-hospitalized, 1,748 medically attended, and 66 hospitalized influenza illnesses. In Guyana, a hypothetical campaign vaccinating 30% of children <5 years could have prevented an annual 1,496 non-hospitalized, 971 medically attended, and 10 hospitalized influenza illnesses. Vaccinating 30% of adults ≥65 years could have prevented 568 non-hospitalized, 257 medically attended, and 10 hospitalized influenza illnesses.
Conclusions: Influenza vaccination averted tens of thousands of illnesses and thousands of hospitalizations in Chile and Paraguay; influenza vaccination could have had a proportional benefit in Guyana.
Keywords: Averted illness; Influenza burden; Influenza vaccine; Vaccine effectiveness.