tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Med Virol
. 2025 Apr;97(4):e70318.
doi: 10.1002/jmv.70318. Unveiling the Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma and Delta Waves in Paraná, Brazil - Delta Displacing a Persistent Gamma Through Alternative Routes of Dispersal
Emanuele Gustani-Buss[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Carlos Eduardo Buss[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Carlos Alberto Oliveira de Biagi[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Isabela Medeiros de Oliveira[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Kamila Chagas Peronni[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Glauco Akelinghton Freire Vitiello[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Bárbara Luisa Fermino[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Fernanda Ivanski[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Bárbara Mendes Paz Chao[SUP] 9 [/SUP], Felipe Francisco Bondan Tuon[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Franciele Ani Caovilla Follador[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Leia Carolina Lucio[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Lirane Elize Defante Ferreto[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Marcos Pillegi[SUP] 12 [/SUP], Jeane Eliete Laguila Visentainer[SUP] 13 [/SUP], Marcia Edilaine Lopes Consolaro[SUP] 13 [/SUP], Maria Leandra Terêncio[SUP] 14 [/SUP], Dennis Armando Bertolini[SUP] 15 [/SUP], Alex Sandro Jorge[SUP] 16 [/SUP], Jaime Luis Lopes Rocha[SUP] 17 [/SUP], Bruno Zagonel Piovesan[SUP] 17 [/SUP], Irina Nastassja Riediger[SUP] 18 [/SUP], Diogo Muller Lacerda[SUP] 19 [/SUP], Angélica Regina Cappellari[SUP] 19 [/SUP], Marco Antonio Largura[SUP] 19 [/SUP], Álvaro Largura[SUP] 19 [/SUP], Patrik André Barcaro[SUP] 19 [/SUP], Vitoria Caroline Tomacheski Schultz Bertol[SUP] 19 [/SUP], Marcos Aurélio Pelegrina[SUP] 20 [/SUP], Glauco Nonose Negrão[SUP] 20 [/SUP], Carla Luiza da Silva[SUP] 21 [/SUP], Daniela Frizon Alfieri[SUP] 22 [/SUP], Tony Vinicius Moreira Sampaio[SUP] 23 [/SUP], Andrea Name Colado Simao[SUP] 24 [/SUP], Emerson Carraro[SUP] 25 [/SUP], Wilson Araújo Silva Jr[SUP] 26 [/SUP], Phillippe Lemey[SUP] 1 [/SUP], David Livingstone Alves Figueiredo[SUP] 27 [/SUP]
Affiliations
The Gamma and Delta variants of concern (VOCs) of SARS-CoV-2 drove the second and third wave in Brazil and significantly intensified the number of cases and deaths. In this study, we investigate the timeline and origins of the Gamma and Delta variants using a spatiotemporal analysis based on 1508 genomes collected between March and September 2021 from health administrative regions in Paraná state, Brazil. Our findings indicate that community transmission of Gamma-P.1 began in late 2020, with substantial contributions from the Northeast and North regions. In contrast, our analysis of the Delta-AY.101 genomes underscored the crucial role of Paraná in national-level transmission dynamics beginning in late March 2021. At a local level, the movement estimates inferred from the monophyletic clades showed that the Curitiba health region was the primary source for Gamma-P.1, with a substantial contribution from Londrina. This health-region also emerged as an important hub for Delta-AY.101. Our phylogeographical GLM analysis demonstrates that air travel fluxes and population size at the origin of locations were the strongest predictors of shaping SARS-CoV-2 dispersal dynamics within Paraná. In addition, viral load analysis suggests that Gamma-P.1 and Delta-AY.101 may have maintained a similarly high transmissibility potential throughout the evaluated months, providing insights into the prolonged co-circulation dynamics. Our study underscores the relevance of understanding SARS-CoV-2 introductions and regional circulation contributions at the country level to enhance public health preparedness and strengthen local surveillance programs.
Keywords: Delta‐AY.101; Gamma‐P.1; phylogeography.
. 2025 Apr;97(4):e70318.
doi: 10.1002/jmv.70318. Unveiling the Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma and Delta Waves in Paraná, Brazil - Delta Displacing a Persistent Gamma Through Alternative Routes of Dispersal
Emanuele Gustani-Buss[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Carlos Eduardo Buss[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Carlos Alberto Oliveira de Biagi[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Isabela Medeiros de Oliveira[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Kamila Chagas Peronni[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Glauco Akelinghton Freire Vitiello[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Bárbara Luisa Fermino[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Fernanda Ivanski[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Bárbara Mendes Paz Chao[SUP] 9 [/SUP], Felipe Francisco Bondan Tuon[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Franciele Ani Caovilla Follador[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Leia Carolina Lucio[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Lirane Elize Defante Ferreto[SUP] 11 [/SUP], Marcos Pillegi[SUP] 12 [/SUP], Jeane Eliete Laguila Visentainer[SUP] 13 [/SUP], Marcia Edilaine Lopes Consolaro[SUP] 13 [/SUP], Maria Leandra Terêncio[SUP] 14 [/SUP], Dennis Armando Bertolini[SUP] 15 [/SUP], Alex Sandro Jorge[SUP] 16 [/SUP], Jaime Luis Lopes Rocha[SUP] 17 [/SUP], Bruno Zagonel Piovesan[SUP] 17 [/SUP], Irina Nastassja Riediger[SUP] 18 [/SUP], Diogo Muller Lacerda[SUP] 19 [/SUP], Angélica Regina Cappellari[SUP] 19 [/SUP], Marco Antonio Largura[SUP] 19 [/SUP], Álvaro Largura[SUP] 19 [/SUP], Patrik André Barcaro[SUP] 19 [/SUP], Vitoria Caroline Tomacheski Schultz Bertol[SUP] 19 [/SUP], Marcos Aurélio Pelegrina[SUP] 20 [/SUP], Glauco Nonose Negrão[SUP] 20 [/SUP], Carla Luiza da Silva[SUP] 21 [/SUP], Daniela Frizon Alfieri[SUP] 22 [/SUP], Tony Vinicius Moreira Sampaio[SUP] 23 [/SUP], Andrea Name Colado Simao[SUP] 24 [/SUP], Emerson Carraro[SUP] 25 [/SUP], Wilson Araújo Silva Jr[SUP] 26 [/SUP], Phillippe Lemey[SUP] 1 [/SUP], David Livingstone Alves Figueiredo[SUP] 27 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 40186553
- PMCID: PMC11971956
- DOI: 10.1002/jmv.70318
The Gamma and Delta variants of concern (VOCs) of SARS-CoV-2 drove the second and third wave in Brazil and significantly intensified the number of cases and deaths. In this study, we investigate the timeline and origins of the Gamma and Delta variants using a spatiotemporal analysis based on 1508 genomes collected between March and September 2021 from health administrative regions in Paraná state, Brazil. Our findings indicate that community transmission of Gamma-P.1 began in late 2020, with substantial contributions from the Northeast and North regions. In contrast, our analysis of the Delta-AY.101 genomes underscored the crucial role of Paraná in national-level transmission dynamics beginning in late March 2021. At a local level, the movement estimates inferred from the monophyletic clades showed that the Curitiba health region was the primary source for Gamma-P.1, with a substantial contribution from Londrina. This health-region also emerged as an important hub for Delta-AY.101. Our phylogeographical GLM analysis demonstrates that air travel fluxes and population size at the origin of locations were the strongest predictors of shaping SARS-CoV-2 dispersal dynamics within Paraná. In addition, viral load analysis suggests that Gamma-P.1 and Delta-AY.101 may have maintained a similarly high transmissibility potential throughout the evaluated months, providing insights into the prolonged co-circulation dynamics. Our study underscores the relevance of understanding SARS-CoV-2 introductions and regional circulation contributions at the country level to enhance public health preparedness and strengthen local surveillance programs.
Keywords: Delta‐AY.101; Gamma‐P.1; phylogeography.