Ronan Kelly
Retired 2020
Rates of hospitalization from 2007-2008
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2007-2008/07-08summary.htm
4.03 per 10,000 aged 0-4
0.55 per 10,000 aged 5-17
Census data 2000 and some calculations gives about 15 million kids aged 0-4 and 57 million kids between 5 and 17.
http://factfinder.census.gov/servle...DEC_2000_SF1_U&-_lang=en&-format=&-CONTEXT=qt
The two rates above then translate into;
4.03 * 15 million / 10,000 = 6,000 hospitalizations
0.55 * 57 million/ 10,000 = 3,100 hospitalizations
Total : 9,100 hospitalizations.
41 fatalities aged 0-4 from 6000 hospitalizations is 0.68%
42 fatalities aged 5-17 from 3100 hospitalizations is 1.4%
83 fatalities from 9,100 hospitalizations is 0.91%
Next, Rates of hospitalization April 15 to Sep 19 from http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2007-2008/07-08summary.htm .
2.6 per 10,000 aged 0-23 months
1.1 per 10,000 aged 2-4
0.9 per 10,000 aged 5-17
Using the census data again these rates translate to;
2.6 * 7.5 million/10,000 = 2,000 hospitalizations
1.1 * 7.5 million/10,000 = 830 hospitalizations
0.9 * 57 million/10,000 = 5,100 hospitalizations
Total: 7,900 hospitalizations
49 fatalities from 7,900 hospitalizations is 0.62%
Conclusion: A lower rate of fatality per hospitalization (0.62%) is observed from April 15 to Sep 19 2009 then is observed (0.91%) for flu season 2007-8. However the average number of hospitalizations per month is about twice as much for Apr ? Sep 2009.
Support for methodology: Using rate per 10,000 and census 2000 data for each of the 6 reported age categories gives an estimated total # of hospitalizations of 20,000 which compares favorably (within 5%) with 19,161, the total obtained by combining the pre and post Aug 30 totals.
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/090409.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2007-2008/07-08summary.htm
4.03 per 10,000 aged 0-4
0.55 per 10,000 aged 5-17
Census data 2000 and some calculations gives about 15 million kids aged 0-4 and 57 million kids between 5 and 17.
http://factfinder.census.gov/servle...DEC_2000_SF1_U&-_lang=en&-format=&-CONTEXT=qt
The two rates above then translate into;
4.03 * 15 million / 10,000 = 6,000 hospitalizations
0.55 * 57 million/ 10,000 = 3,100 hospitalizations
Total : 9,100 hospitalizations.
41 fatalities aged 0-4 from 6000 hospitalizations is 0.68%
42 fatalities aged 5-17 from 3100 hospitalizations is 1.4%
83 fatalities from 9,100 hospitalizations is 0.91%
Next, Rates of hospitalization April 15 to Sep 19 from http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2007-2008/07-08summary.htm .
2.6 per 10,000 aged 0-23 months
1.1 per 10,000 aged 2-4
0.9 per 10,000 aged 5-17
Using the census data again these rates translate to;
2.6 * 7.5 million/10,000 = 2,000 hospitalizations
1.1 * 7.5 million/10,000 = 830 hospitalizations
0.9 * 57 million/10,000 = 5,100 hospitalizations
Total: 7,900 hospitalizations
49 fatalities from 7,900 hospitalizations is 0.62%
Conclusion: A lower rate of fatality per hospitalization (0.62%) is observed from April 15 to Sep 19 2009 then is observed (0.91%) for flu season 2007-8. However the average number of hospitalizations per month is about twice as much for Apr ? Sep 2009.
Support for methodology: Using rate per 10,000 and census 2000 data for each of the 6 reported age categories gives an estimated total # of hospitalizations of 20,000 which compares favorably (within 5%) with 19,161, the total obtained by combining the pre and post Aug 30 totals.
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/090409.htm