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Scale of anticipated flu pandemic 'frightening': Doctor

Chuck

Moderator
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/health/Scale+anticipated+pandemic+frightening+Doctor/1958388/story.html

Scale of anticipated flu pandemic 'frightening': Doctor


By MEagan Fitzpatrick, Canwest News ServiceSeptember 3, 2009 9:35 AM

WINNIPEG ? An intensive care doctor speaking Wednesday at a conference on the H1N1 pandemic said the virus is the "most frightening" thing he has seen in his career ? and other experts here warned that hospitals are not yet ready for a surge of severely sick patients.

In an interview just prior to his address, Dr. Anand Kumar said he wanted to give the audience "the flavour" of what hospitals can expect to see when the second wave of the pandemic is expected to come this fall and winter.

"I think it's an absolutely massive onslaught of incredibly sick young people that I had never imagined I would see in my life," Kumar said of his experience treating patients in Winnipeg's intensive care units. "It's startling, and more than a little frightening, especially when you don't know what the ceiling of this is going to be."

The two-day conference, which has drawn together about 150 health-care professionals and experts from across the country and around the world, is focused on how to manage severe cases of the swine flu and prevent them from deteriorating. Also on the agenda are discussions about Canada's vaccine strategy ? under attack this week from the Canadian Medical Association Journal ? the use of antivirals, medical ethics and clinical care guidelines. The sessions are closed to media.

Most cases of swine flu in Canada have been mild, but there is a subset of patients who are getting very sick. At least 72 deaths have been linked to H1N1 and more than 1,366 people have been hospitalized. Of those patients, more than 240 have spent time in intensive care units.

The virus's behaviour differs from that of other flu bugs in that it attacks younger people at disproportionately higher rates, rather than the very old and very young who are normally more susceptible to flu. Researchers still don't know why it is hitting some people so hard, particularly when they have no underlying health conditions or risk factors such as pregnancy.

Kumar said that, of the patients who were hospitalized in Winnipeg, two-thirds were young and healthy people who were "essentially struck down in the prime of their life" and that hospitals were filled with "rows and rows" of young patients in their 20s, 30s and 40s. He called it a "bizarre experience."

"I've been doing this for 28 years and it's probably the most frightening thing I've ever seen professionally," he said.

Some of the people who got "spectacularly ill" could barely get any oxygen from a ventilator into their lungs because they were so filled with fluid, said Kumar, and some patients had lungs so damaged that a ventilator didn't work.

Despite the rather ominous description offered by Kumar, he said young and healthy people shouldn't be scared and that the vast majority of people who contract the virus recover well.

Hospitals, however, know they need to prepare for an onslaught of critically ill patients in the event the pandemic worsens.

Dr. Robert Fowler, a critical care specialist and associate professor at the University of Toronto, said the second wave is not going to hit every city at the same time and jurisdictions should be able to share resources, such as ventilators and personnel. Those plans are not yet ready to be activated, said Fowler, and hospitals in general are not ready for high numbers of swine flu patients to walk through their doors.

"Are we ready? I think lots of work has been done, but we're not ready," said Fowler. "There's still lots more work to be done over the next weeks to months."

Some hospitals are already pushed to their limits when caring for critically ill patients, and the possibility of being pushed beyond those limits is causing a lot of worry, he said.

Dr. Gerald Evans, an expert from Queen's University who will address the conference Thursday, echoed those concerns.

"Canadian health care is sort of premised on the idea that we run at near 100 per cent capacity, so the lack of a surge capacity, the ability to take a big huge surge of people, is a significant problem," he said.

More hospital beds are needed, more advanced ventilators are required, as well as the people trained to operate them, and strategies are needed to prevent serious cases from turning deadly, the experts said. Those strategies will be discussed in detail during the second day of the conference.

? Copyright (c) Canwest News Service
 
Re: Scale of anticipated flu pandemic 'frightening': Doctor

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/manitoba/story/2009/09/03/mb-swine-flu-winnipeg-kumar.html


Swine flu raises ICU-overload concerns


A Winnipeg intensive-care specialist hopes an international conference taking place in the city will find ways to deal with the flood of patients that hospitals could see this fall during a second swine flu pandemic.

Dr. Anand Kumar worked during the first wave of the swine flu, or H1N1 influenza A, crisis in the spring.

"Quite frankly, professionally, it was the most frightening experience of my life," he said. "We simply didn't know if we would have sufficient beds in three to four days because we were getting six patients a day. We were fortunate, because the epidemic abated within three to four days of when we would've overloaded."

At one point, there were 60 patients with proven or suspected H1N1 infection in a city with only 70 ICU beds, Kumar said. Most people will not need hospitalization if they get infected with H1N1, but for those who do, about 15 per cent will require ventilators in the ICU, he said.

"It will not just be ventilators [of concern]. Hopefully, we've put into place preparations for medications that might be short ? sedatives is one large group of those," Kumar said.

"Then most importantly, manpower. One of big chokepoints is nursing and respiratory tech manpower. While there are agreements in place to allow transfer of these people between places, how do you actually operationalize that if it becomes necessary? I don't know that planning has progressed too far."

Myrna Driedger, health critic for the Opposition Progressive Conservative party in Manitoba, has also called on provincial Health Minister Theresa Oswald to address the ICU nursing shortage and to prove to Manitobans there is a plan to deal with the expected surge of patients this fall and winter.

Medical experts from across Canada and around the world are gathering in Winnipeg on Wednesday and Thursday for a conference on preparation for the resurgence of H1N1 in the fall.

Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq said the pandemic conference is the first of its kind. She said delegates will review possible outcomes of the epidemic, and develop standardized guidelines for medical personnel in rural communities and hospital intensive care units.

Canada's chief public health officer David Butler-Jones said the conference will play a key role in determining many of Canada's H1N1 guidelines for the fall flu season.

Public health officials say an H1N1 vaccine will be available by mid-November and they're confident that will be enough time to protect every Canadian who wants it.
 
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