tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Sci Rep
. 2023 Jun 16;13(1):9761.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-36116-1. A global perspective on the intrinsic dimensionality of COVID-19 data
Abhishek Varghese[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Edgar Santos-Fernandez[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP], Francesco Denti[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Antonietta Mira[SUP] 6 7 [/SUP], Kerrie Mengersen[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
We develop a novel global perspective of the complexity of the relationships between three COVID-19 datasets, the standardised per-capita growth rate of COVID-19 cases and deaths, and the Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker COVID-19 Stringency Index (CSI) which is a measure describing a country's stringency of lockdown policies. We use a state-of-the-art heterogeneous intrinsic dimension estimator implemented as a Bayesian mixture model, called Hidalgo. Our findings suggest that these highly popular COVID-19 statistics may project onto two low-dimensional manifolds without significant information loss, suggesting that COVID-19 data dynamics are generated from a latent mechanism characterised by a few important variables. The low dimensionality imply a strong dependency among the standardised growth rates of cases and deaths per capita and the CSI for countries over 2020-2021. Importantly, we identify spatial autocorrelation in the intrinsic dimension distribution worldwide. The results show how high-income countries are more prone to lie on low-dimensional manifolds, likely arising from aging populations, comorbidities, and increased per capita mortality burden from COVID-19. Finally, the temporal stratification of the dataset allows the examination of the intrinsic dimension at a more granular level throughout the pandemic.
. 2023 Jun 16;13(1):9761.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-36116-1. A global perspective on the intrinsic dimensionality of COVID-19 data
Abhishek Varghese[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Edgar Santos-Fernandez[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP], Francesco Denti[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Antonietta Mira[SUP] 6 7 [/SUP], Kerrie Mengersen[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 37328523
- PMCID: PMC10276009
- DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-36116-1
We develop a novel global perspective of the complexity of the relationships between three COVID-19 datasets, the standardised per-capita growth rate of COVID-19 cases and deaths, and the Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker COVID-19 Stringency Index (CSI) which is a measure describing a country's stringency of lockdown policies. We use a state-of-the-art heterogeneous intrinsic dimension estimator implemented as a Bayesian mixture model, called Hidalgo. Our findings suggest that these highly popular COVID-19 statistics may project onto two low-dimensional manifolds without significant information loss, suggesting that COVID-19 data dynamics are generated from a latent mechanism characterised by a few important variables. The low dimensionality imply a strong dependency among the standardised growth rates of cases and deaths per capita and the CSI for countries over 2020-2021. Importantly, we identify spatial autocorrelation in the intrinsic dimension distribution worldwide. The results show how high-income countries are more prone to lie on low-dimensional manifolds, likely arising from aging populations, comorbidities, and increased per capita mortality burden from COVID-19. Finally, the temporal stratification of the dataset allows the examination of the intrinsic dimension at a more granular level throughout the pandemic.