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Scotland Influenza A (H1N1) update

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator
News Release
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Influenza A (H1N1) update
10/09/2009

The latest figures about the incidence of influenza A (H1N1) in Scotland have been published today.

Today's findings are:

A rate of GP consultations for flu-like illnesses - not necessarily H1N1 - across Scotland of 43.9 per 100,000. This is a slight increase from last week's figure of 40.2.
The number of community samples that tested positive for H1N1 has increased to 19.2 per cent. This is partly due to swabbing more children from the 5-14 age group, which has a higher swab positivity rate.
These rates suggest that around 1,168 people have consulted their GP with H1N1 flu in Scotland over the week-long reporting period. However, taking account of the number of people having H1N1 but not consulting their GP, HPS estimate that around 3,336 people have contracted H1N1 in the past week.
As of September 8, there have been 130 people with influenza A (H1N1) hospitalised since the start of the outbreak. Six people have required hospital admission in the last week and, as of yesterday, there were three people in hospital in Scotland.
There have been seven deaths linked to influenza A (H1N1) since the start of the outbreak.
There have been six schools reporting higher than expected absences during the course of last week. The following schools currently have higher than average absenteeism levels:

Craigbank Primary, Clackmannanshire
Lornshill, Clackmannanshire
Gordonstoun, Moray
Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon said:

"Today's figures show an increase in the number of people consulting their GP with flu-like symptoms, an increase in the number of overall estimated cases and an increase in the proportion of samples testing positive for H1N1.

"NHS 24 and our GPs are responding very well to the pandemic, as is our Scottish flu response service. The latest NHS 24 figures show that the number of flu related calls has decreased slightly to around 730, compared to 885 last week.

"Simple hygiene measures like frequent handwashing and using tissues can do a huge amount to help prevent flu spreading.

"In the vast majority of cases, most people have fairly mild symptoms and make a full recovery within a week. But it is important that anyone who is at greater risk gets the help they need as quickly as possible.

"Anyone who is concerned about flu-like symptoms should continue to contact their GP for advice, or NHS 24 on 08454 24 24 24."

Rates of GP consultation for flu-like illness per 100,000 population in Scottish NHS Boards*:

Ayrshire and Arran - 41

Borders - 43

Dumfries and Galloway - 20

Fife - 24

Forth Valley - 65

Grampian - 53

Greater Glasgow and Clyde -36

Highland - 71

Lanarkshire - 31

Lothian - 16

Orkney - 6

Shetland - 37

Tayside - 127

Western Isles - 36

Scotland - 44

* These figures are based on relatively small sample sizes, particularly in smaller boards, so should be interpreted with caution.

The GP consultation rate calculation now takes into account the age bands presenting to GPs and the number of positive swabs in each band. This method is more accurate for arriving at a realistic figure of consultations.

Population figures per board area, mid-year 2008 estimates (GROS)

NHS Board areas - Population size

Ayrshire and Arran - 367,510

Borders - 112,430

Dumfries and Galloway - 148,580

Fife - 361,815

Forth Valley - 290,047

Grampian - 539,630

Greater Glasgow and Clyde - 1,194,675

Highland - 309,900

Lanarkshire - 561,174

Lothian - 817,727

Orkney - 19,890

Shetland - 21,980

Tayside - 396,942

Western Isles - 26,200

Scotland - 5,168,500

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Releases/2009/09/10134301
 
Scotland : Weekly H1N1 Update ILI Increase

Scotland : Weekly H1N1 Update ILI Increase

There is evidence that Influenza A H1N1v continues to circulate in Scotland, with the overall levels of illness which may be due to this virus slightly higher this week, compared to last week. This rise is part of a continuing increase seen over the last four weeks. Compared to last week consultation rates continued to increase in the 0-4 and 5-14 year age groups decreased in
the 65 years and over age group and levelled off in the 15-64 year age group.
The estimate of H1N1v positivity in samples from sentinel practices submitted this week has increased
in comparison to last week. This is partly due to a change in the age distribution of those individuals swabbed. A small number of H1N1v confirmed cases continue to be hospitalised.
There is no evidence of any significant increase in either the number or in the severity of their condition. The situation is being closely monitored.

Key points for the period covering midday Monday 31 August to midday Monday 7 September 2009 :

The current all Scotland GP consultation rate for all age groups is 43.9 per 100,000 which is slightly higher than last week’s rate (40.2 per 100,000) but is within the limits of statistical variation. However, it is part of a continuing increase which has been seen over the last four weeks.

This week, based on samples submitted from sentinel practices for H1N1v testing, the estimate of H1N1v positivity among those consulting their GPs was 19.2 % (95% CI 12.2% to 29.0%). Although based upon small numbers this percentage represents an increase in swab positivity compared to previous weeks (ranging from 8.4%-11.4%).

A further six people confirmed as having Influenza A H1N1v infection, have required hospital admission in the last week, bringing the cumulative total of laboratory confirmed hospitalised cases to 130 (as at midday 7 September2009). The majority of cases have been discharged (127/130; 98%). Of the three who remain in hospital, one is in intensive care and two are within general wards. A notable proportion of hospitalised confirmed cases had a recognised risk factor (44%).

There have been no further deaths reported since the previous report. The total number of deaths among Influenza A H1N1v cases in Scotland remains at seven (as at midday Monday 7 September).

More info available at : http://www.hps.scot.nhs.uk/resp/publicationsdetail.aspx?id=42492
 
Re: Scotland Influenza A (H1N1) update

Unfortunately this chart is leading the way

<img src="http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/6306/scot514.jpg">
 
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