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Sri Lanka: 2017 Dengue

Article | OPEN

Spatial-temporal distribution of dengue and climate characteristics for two clusters in Sri Lanka from 2012 to 2016
Wei Sun, Ling Xue & Xiaoxue Xie
Scientific Reports 7, Article number: 12884 (2017)
doi:10.1038/s41598-017-13163-z
Download Citation
Applied mathematicsViral infection
Received:
08 May 2017
Accepted:
19 September 2017
Published online:
10 October 2017
Abstract
Dengue is a vector-borne disease causing high morbidity and mortality in tropical and subtropical countries. Urbanization, globalization, and lack of effective mosquito control have lead to dramatically increased frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemic in the past 40 years. The virus and the mosquito vectors keep expanding geographically in the tropical regions of the world. Using the hot spot analysis and the spatial-temporal clustering method, we investigated the spatial-temporal distribution of dengue in Sri Lanka from 2012 to 2016 to identify spatial-temporal clusters and elucidate the association of climatic factors with dengue incidence. We detected two important spatial-temporal clusters in Sri Lanka. Dengue incidences were predicted by combining historical dengue incidence data with climate data, and hot and cold spots were forecasted using the predicted dengue incidences to identify areas at high risks. Targeting the hot spots during outbreaks instead of all the regions can save resources and time for public health authorities. Our study helps better understand how climatic factors impact spatial and temporal spread of dengue virus. Hot spot prediction helps public health authorities forecast future high risk areas and direct control measures to minimize cost on health, time, and economy.
...
full paper at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-13163-z?WT.feed_name=subjects_immunology

Dengue control programmes to be launched in several provinces

Wednesday, October 11, 2017 - 11:00
Local


Health Minister Rajitha Senaratne has notified the National Dengue Control Unit to launch dengue control programmes swiftly in the Western, Sabaragamuwa, North Western and Northern provinces due to the prevailing weather condition.
...
http://www.dailynews.lk/2017/10/11/...trol-programmes-be-launched-several-provinces
 
Dengue rising with ongoing rains

Thursday, October 12, 2017 - 01:00
Print Edition
Local
Nadira Gunatilleke

Health Minister Dr. Rajitha Senaratne has instructed the National Dengue Control Unit to implement mosquito control activities without interruption because there is a possibility of dengue increasing with the ongoing rains in the Western, Sabaragamuwa, North Western and Northern Provinces, a Health Ministry Spokesman said.

According to the spokesman, a total of 158,024 dengue patients and 394 dengue deaths had been reported from all parts of the country this year up to October 9 (last Monday). This is the highest number of dengue patients and deaths reported in Sri Lanka so far. There is a possibility of dengue increasing again with the ongoing rains, he said.
...
http://dailynews.lk/2017/10/12/local/130990/dengue-rising-ongoing-rains
 
Updated to October 13. 1,721 cases in 9 days.

http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...d=448&lang=en#

Jan: 10,927 (-) (Highest January ever)
Feb: 8,724 (-) (Highest February ever)
Mar: 13,540 (-) (Highest March ever)
Apr: 12,510 (-) (Highest April ever)
May: 15,936 (-) (Highest May ever)
June: 25,299 (+17) (Highest June ever)
July: 40,731 (+129) (Highest month on record)
Aug: 21,737 (+130) (Highest August ever)
Sep: 8,593 (+588) (Highest September ever)
October: 857 (+857)

Total: 158,854 (Highest year ever)

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.41% in 2012 to 0.28% in 2013 to 0.21% in 2014 to 0.18% in 2015 and a preliminary 0.14% in 2016. This would allow an estimate of between 222 and 1,032 fatal cases so far in 2017. 394 fatalities from 158,024 cases (cfr 0.25%) have been reported in the media to October 9.

Comparison to Previous Years
2016: 43,210 cases to Oct 14 (media 59 fatalities to Aug 28)
2015: 21,636 cases to Oct 15, (media 50 fatalities to Oct 9)
2014: 33,159 cases to Oct 17, (media 55 fatalities to August 3)
2013: 24,987 cases to Oct 9, (media 60 fatalities to September 1)
2012: 34,031 cases to Oct 16, (media 110 fatalities to September 15)
2011: 19,372 cases, 140 fatalities to Oct 7
2010: 34,188 cases, 246 fatalities for Full Year
2009: 33,081 cases, 334 fatalities for Full Year
 
Updated to October 20. 3,087 cases in 7 days.

http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php?option=com_casesanddeaths&Itemid=448&lang=en#

Jan: 10,927 (-) (Highest January ever)
Feb: 8,724 (-) (Highest February ever)
Mar: 13,540 (-) (Highest March ever)
Apr: 12,510 (-) (Highest April ever)
May: 15,936 (-) (Highest May ever)
June: 25,296 (-3) (Highest June ever)
July: 41,026 (+295) (Highest month on record)
Aug: 22,162 (+435) (Highest August ever)
Sep: 9,321 (+728) (Highest September ever)
October: 2,499 (+1,642)

Total: 161,941 (Highest year ever)

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.41% in 2012 to 0.28% in 2013 to 0.21% in 2014 to 0.18% in 2015 and a preliminary 0.14% in 2016. This would allow an estimate of between 226 and 1,052 fatal cases so far in 2017. 394 fatalities from 158,024 cases (cfr 0.25%) have been reported in the media to October 9.

Comparison to Previous Years
2016: 43,895 cases to Oct 21 (media 59 fatalities to Aug 28)
2015: 21,636 cases to Oct 15, (media 50 fatalities to Oct 9)
2014: 33,159 cases to Oct 17, (media 55 fatalities to August 3)
2013: 25,441 cases to Oct 21, (media 60 fatalities to September 1)
2012: 34,031 cases to Oct 16, (media 110 fatalities to September 15)
2011: 20,334 cases, 145 fatalities to Oct 22
2010: 34,188 cases, 246 fatalities for Full Year
2009: 33,081 cases, 334 fatalities for Full Year
 
Updated to October 27. 1,818 cases in 7 days.

http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...d=448&lang=en#

Jan: 10,927 (-) (Highest January ever)
Feb: 8,724 (-) (Highest February ever)
Mar: 13,540 (-) (Highest March ever)
Apr: 12,510 (-) (Highest April ever)
May: 15,936 (-) (Highest May ever)
June: 25,319 (+23) (Highest June ever)
July: 41,094 (+68) (Highest month on record)
Aug: 22,236 (+74) (Highest August ever)
Sep: 9,455 (+134) (Highest September ever)
October: 4,018 (+1,519)

Total: 163,759 (Highest year ever)

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.41% in 2012 to 0.28% in 2013 to 0.21% in 2014 to 0.18% in 2015 and a preliminary 0.14% in 2016. This would allow an estimate of between 229 and 1,064 fatal cases so far in 2017. 394 fatalities from 158,024 cases (cfr 0.25%) have been reported in the media to October 9. 395 total fatalities reported in the media to Oct 27.

Comparison to Previous Years
2016: 44,171 cases to Oct 26 (media 59 fatalities to Aug 28)
2015: 22,542 cases to Oct 30, (media 50 fatalities to Oct 9)
2014: 34,924 cases to Oct 31, (media 55 fatalities to August 3)
2013: 26,050 cases to Oct 30, (media 60 fatalities to September 1)
2012: 36,375 cases to Nov 2, (media 110 fatalities to September 15)
2011: 20,334 cases, 145 fatalities to Oct 22
2010: 34,188 cases, 246 fatalities for Full Year
2009: 33,081 cases, 334 fatalities for Full Year
 
Last edited:
Updated to November 2. 1,758 cases in 6 days.

http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...d=448&lang=en#

Jan: 10,927 (-) (Highest January ever)
Feb: 8,724 (-) (Highest February ever)
Mar: 13,540 (-) (Highest March ever)
Apr: 12,510 (-) (Highest April ever)
May: 15,936 (-) (Highest May ever)
June: 25,319 (-) (Highest June ever)
July: 41,094 (-) (Highest month on record)
Aug: 22,236 (-) (Highest August ever)
Sep: 9,473(+18) (Highest September ever)
October: 5,758 (+1,740)

Total: 165,517 (Highest year ever)

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.41% in 2012 to 0.28% in 2013 to 0.21% in 2014 to 0.18% in 2015 and a preliminary 0.14% in 2016. This would allow an estimate of between 231 and 1,075 fatal cases so far in 2017. 394 fatalities from 158,024 cases (cfr 0.25%) have been reported in the media to October 9. 395 total fatalities reported in the media to Oct 27.

Comparison to Previous Years
2016: 44,893 cases to Nov 4 (media 69 fatalities to Oct 30)
2015: 22,542 cases to Oct 30, (media 50 fatalities to Oct 9)
2014: 34,924 cases to Oct 31, (media 55 fatalities to August 3)
2013: 26,050 cases to Oct 30, (media 60 fatalities to September 1)
2012: 36,375 cases to Nov 2, (media 110 fatalities to September 15)
2011: 21,540 cases, 151 fatalities to Nov 5
2010: 34,188 cases, 246 fatalities for Full Year
2009: 33,081 cases, 334 fatalities for Full Year

National Dengue Prevention Unit observes increase in mosquito larvae
Nov 02, 2017 Keshala Dias
...
Three hundred and ninety five deaths have been reported thus far this year owing to the Dengue epidemic.
http://newsfirst.lk/english/2017/11...emises-national-dengue-prevention-unit/175716
 
Updated to November 10. 2,123 cases in 10 days.

http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...d=448&lang=en#

Jan: 10,927 (-) (Highest January ever)
Feb: 8,724 (-) (Highest February ever)
Mar: 13,540 (-) (Highest March ever)
Apr: 12,510 (-) (Highest April ever)
May: 15,936 (-) (Highest May ever)
June: 25,319 (-) (Highest June ever)
July: 41,121 (+27) (Highest month on record)
Aug: 22,270 (+34) (Highest August ever)
Sep: 9,511 (+38) (Highest September ever)
October: 6,243 (+485) (Highest October ever)
November: 1,539 (+1,539)

Total: 167,640 (Highest year ever)

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.41% in 2012 to 0.28% in 2013 to 0.21% in 2014 to 0.18% in 2015 and a preliminary 0.14% in 2016. This would allow an estimate of between 234 and 1,089 fatal cases so far in 2017. 395 fatalities from 166,942 cases (cfr 0.24%) have been reported in the media to November 2.

Comparison to Previous Years
2016: 45,531 cases to Nov 10 (media 69 fatalities to Oct 30)
2015: 23,680 cases to Nov 13, (media 50 fatalities to Oct 9)
2014: 37,414 cases to Nov 14, (media 55 fatalities to August 3)
2013: 27,221 cases to Nov 13, (media 60 fatalities to September 1)
2012: 37,500 cases to Nov 14, (media 110 fatalities to September 15)
2011: 21,540 cases, 151 fatalities to Nov 5
2010: 34,188 cases, 246 fatalities for Full Year
2009: 33,081 cases, 334 fatalities for Full Year

National Dengue Prevention Unit observes increase in mosquito larvae
Nov 02, 2017 Keshala Dias
...
Three hundred and ninety five deaths have been reported thus far this year owing to the Dengue epidemic.
http://newsfirst.lk/english/2017/11/...on-unit/175716

Over 1,000 Dengue cases reported each week: Health Ministry
Nov 08, 2017 Keshala Dias Local 0
inShare
Over 1,000 Dengue cases reported each week: Health Ministry

The Ministry of Health has issued a warning that there is a rise in the number of Dengue patients reported around the country.

As a result of this situation,a countrywide Dengue Eradication Programme is scheduled to take place today and tomorrow.So far this year, 166,942 reported cases and 395 deaths have made this the worst Dengue epidemic in recorded history.
...
http://newsfirst.lk/english/2017/11/176085/176085
 
Last edited:
Updated to November 17. 2,435 cases in 7 days.

http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...d=448&lang=en#

Jan: 10,927 (-) (Highest January ever)
Feb: 8,724 (-) (Highest February ever)
Mar: 13,540 (-) (Highest March ever)
Apr: 12,510 (-) (Highest April ever)
May: 15,936 (-) (Highest May ever)
June: 25,319 (-) (Highest June ever)
July: 41,121 (-) (Highest month on record)
Aug: 22,270 (-) (Highest August ever)
Sep: 9,514 (+3) (Highest September ever)
October: 6,333 (+90) (Highest October ever)
November: 3,881 (+2,342)

Total: 170,075 (Highest year ever)

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.41% in 2012 to 0.28% in 2013 to 0.21% in 2014 to 0.18% in 2015 and a preliminary 0.14% in 2016. This would allow an estimate of between 238 and 1,105 fatal cases so far in 2017. 395 fatalities from 166,942 cases (cfr 0.24%) have been reported in the media to November 2.

Comparison to Previous Years
2016: 45,531 cases to Nov 10 (media 69 fatalities to Oct 30)
2015: 23,680 cases to Nov 13, (media 50 fatalities to Oct 9)
2014: 37,414 cases to Nov 14, (media 55 fatalities to August 3)
2013: 27,221 cases to Nov 13, (media 60 fatalities to September 1)
2012: 37,500 cases to Nov 14, (media 110 fatalities to September 15)
2011: 28,473 cases, 173 fatalities for Full Year
2010: 34,188 cases, 246 fatalities for Full Year
2009: 33,081 cases, 334 fatalities for Full Year

Puttalam in pain ? 45 Dengue patients reported in one day
Nov 13, 2017 Nathasha De Alwis Local, News Ticker

The number of Dengue patients reported from the Puttalam district has shown a rapid rise, according to health authorities.

According to the Puttalam Hospital Medical Superintendent, Dr. R. Nagulanadan, 45 patients were diagnosed with Dengue within a course of a day ? yesterday ? November 12.
...
http://newsfirst.lk/english/2017/11/puttalam-pain-45-dengue-patients-reported-one-day/176421
 
Source: http://newsfirst.lk/english/2017/12/painful-sting-dengue-revealed-statistics-2017/179040


Painful sting of Dengue revealed in statistics for 2017
Dec 23, 2017 Nathasha De Alwis

Dengue has been a grave problem for the people of Sri Lanka for the past few years. This year, 2017, saw 421 lives being lost to the merciless Dengue epidemic.

According to the Community Physician at the Dengue Eradication Unit, Dr. Prasheela Samaraweera, 180,939 cases of Dengue has been reported during the past twelve months.

As a percentage, 41.58% of these cases were reported from the Western Province.

He added that a special Dengue eradication programme will be conducted in areas surrounding schools, prior to the re-commencing of the school term in 2018...
 
Updated to December 22

http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...d=448&lang=en#

Jan: 10,927 (-) (Highest January ever)
Feb: 8,724 (-) (Highest February ever)
Mar: 13,540 (-) (Highest March ever)
Apr: 12,510 (-) (Highest April ever)
May: 15,936 (-) (Highest May ever)
June: 25,319 (-) (Highest June ever)
July: 41,121 (-) (Highest month on record)
Aug: 22,270 (-) (Highest August ever)
Sep: 9,514 (-) (Highest September ever)
Oct: 6,577 (+244) (Highest October ever)
Nov: 8,670 (+4,789) (Highest November ever)
Dec: 5,880 (+5,880)

Total: 180,988 (Highest year ever)

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.41% in 2012 to 0.28% in 2013 to 0.21% in 2014 to 0.18% in 2015 and a preliminary 0.14% in 2016. This would allow an estimate of between 253 and 1,176 fatal cases so far in 2017. 421 fatalities from 180,939 cases (cfr 0.23%) have been reported in the media to December 23.

Comparison to Previous Years
2016: 55,150 cases, 91 fatalities for Full Year
2015: 29,777 cases, 56 fatalities for Full Year
2014: 47,502 cases, 97 fatalities for Full Year
2013: 32,063 cases, 89 fatalities for Full Year
2012: 44,461 cases, (fatality figures are untrustworthy; 264 on Dec 12th 2012 to 220 by Dec 21st to 200 by Jan 31st 2017 to 178 officially.)
2011: 28,473 cases, 173 fatalities for Full Year
2010: 34,188 cases, 246 fatalities for Full Year
2009: 33,081 cases, 334 fatalities for Full Year
 
Updated to December 29 an increase of 2,247 cases in 7 days.

http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...d=448&lang=en#

Jan: 10,927 (-) (Highest January ever)
Feb: 8,724 (-) (Highest February ever)
Mar: 13,540 (-) (Highest March ever)
Apr: 12,510 (-) (Highest April ever)
May: 15,936 (-) (Highest May ever)
June: 25,319 (-) (Highest June ever)
July: 41,121 (-) (Highest month on record)
Aug: 22,270 (-) (Highest August ever)
Sep: 9,514 (-) (Highest September ever)
Oct: 6,587 (+10) (Highest October ever)
Nov: 8,804 (+134) (Highest November ever)
Dec: 7,983 (+2,103) (Highest December ever)

Total: 183,235 (Highest year ever)

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.40% in 2012 to 0.28% in 2013 to 0.20% in 2014 to 0.19% in 2015 and 0.17% in 2016. This would allow an estimate of between 311 and 1,191 fatal cases so far in 2017. 421 fatalities from 180,939 cases (cfr 0.23%) have been reported in the media to December 23.

Comparison to Previous Years
2016: 55,150 cases, 91 fatalities for Full Year (0.17%)
2015: 29,777 cases, 56 fatalities for Full Year (0.19%)
2014: 47,502 cases, 97 fatalities for Full Year (0.20%)
2013: 32,063 cases, 89 fatalities for Full Year (0.28%)
2012: 44,461 cases, (fatality figures are untrustworthy; 264 on Dec 12th 2012 to 220 by Dec 21st to 200 by Jan 31st 2017 to 178 officially.) (0.40-0.59%)
2011: 28,473 cases, 173 fatalities for Full Year (0.61%)
2010: 34,188 cases, 246 fatalities for Full Year (0.72%)
2009: 33,081 cases, 334 fatalities for Full Year (1.01%)
 
Updated figures for 2017.

http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...d=448&lang=en#

Jan: 10,927 (-) (Highest January ever)
Feb: 8,724 (-) (Highest February ever)
Mar: 13,540 (-) (Highest March ever)
Apr: 12,510 (-) (Highest April ever)
May: 15,936 (-) (Highest May ever)
June: 25,319 (-) (Highest June ever)
July: 41,121 (-) (Highest month on record)
Aug: 22,270 (-) (Highest August ever)
Sep: 9,514 (-) (Highest September ever)
Oct: 6,603 (+16) (Highest October ever)
Nov: 8,827(+23) (Highest November ever)
Dec: 10,397 (+2,414) (Highest December ever)

Total: 185,688 (Highest year ever)

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.40% in 2012 to 0.28% in 2013 to 0.20% in 2014 to 0.19% in 2015 and 0.17% in 2016. This would allow an estimate of between 315 and 1,206 fatal cases in 2017. 421 fatalities from 180,939 cases (cfr 0.23%) have been reported in the media to December 23.

Comparison to Previous Years
2016: 55,150 cases, 91 fatalities for Full Year (0.17%)
2015: 29,777 cases, 56 fatalities for Full Year (0.19%)
2014: 47,502 cases, 97 fatalities for Full Year (0.20%)
2013: 32,063 cases, 89 fatalities for Full Year (0.28%)
2012: 44,461 cases, (fatality figures are untrustworthy; 264 on Dec 12th 2012 to 220 by Dec 21st to 200 by Jan 31st 2017 to 178 officially.) (0.40-0.59%)
2011: 28,473 cases, 173 fatalities for Full Year (0.61%)
2010: 34,188 cases, 246 fatalities for Full Year (0.72%)
2009: 33,081 cases, 334 fatalities for Full Year (1.01%)
 
The unprecedented magnitude of the 2017 dengue outbreak in Sri Lanka provides lessons for future mosquito-borne infection control and prevention
Shahid Ali1, Abdul Waheed Khan'Correspondence information about the author Abdul Waheed Khan1,Email the author Abdul Waheed Khan, Andrew W. Taylor-Robinson, Muhammad Adnan, Shahana Malik, Saba Gul
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idh.2018.02.004

Highlights
?Since the start of 2017 Sri Lanka has been confronted by a devastating dengue outbreak.
?The outbreak has broken national records for morbidity from dengue infection.
?An environment conducive to mosquito population growth is escalating the crisis.
?Establishment of an effective control strategy is a major public health need.

Abstract
Background
The outbreak of dengue during 2017 in Sri Lanka is the worst incidence of this mosquito-borne virus infection in the South Asian country since records began.

Methods
In this retrospective study, up to the end of December 2017 over 185,000 clinical cases were reported from all regions of the island nation.

Results
This crisis placed an overwhelming burden on Sri Lanka?s public health system and also had a significant negative impact on its economy.

Conclusions
The unsurpassed level of morbidity and mortality has highlighted the pressing need for an effective operational plan to both manage the existing outbreak and to reduce the threat of a future episode of disease. This should involve an integrated nationwide program of vector surveillance and control, tertiary care of severely affected individuals and the implementation of measures to prevent future infections, including widespread vaccination.

http://www.idhjournal.com.au/article/S2468-0451(18)30021-X/fulltext
 
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