tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Vaccine
. 2025 Jan 30:49:126808.
doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2025.126808. Online ahead of print. Estimating COVID-19 associated hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and in-hospital deaths averted in the United States by 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccination: A conditional probability, causal inference, and multiplier-based approach
Ryan E Wiegand[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Owen Devine[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Megan Wallace[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Ismael R Ortega-Sanchez[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Huong T Pham[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Diba Khan[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Danielle L Moulia[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Lauren E Roper[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Imelda Trejo[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Katherine E Fleming-Dutra[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Fiona P Havers[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Christopher A Taylor[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
COVID-19-associated hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and in-hospital deaths averted from 2023 to 2024 COVID-19 vaccination from the weeks of October 1, 2023, through April 21, 2024, were estimated via a novel multiplier model that utilized causal inference, conditional probabilities of hospitalization, and correlations between data elements in Monte Carlo simulations. Median COVID-19-associated hospitalizations averted were 68,315 (95 % uncertainty interval [UI] 42,831-97,984), ICU admissions averted were 13,108 (95 % UI 4459-25,042), and in-hospital deaths averted were 5301 (95 % UI 101-14,230). Averted COVID-19-associated burden was highest in adults aged 65 years and older (hospitalizations averted 57,665, 95 % UI 35,442-84,006; ICU admissions averted 10,878, 95 % UI 3104-21,591; in-hospital deaths averted 4779, 95 % UI 0-13,132). Expanding the analytic period to comprise the weeks of September 24, 2023, through August 11, 2024, resulted in 107,197 COVID-19-associated hospitalizations averted (95 % UI 80,692-137,643), 18,292 COVID-19-associated ICU admissions averted (95 % UI 10,062-28,436), and 6749 COVID-19-associated in-hospital deaths averted (95 % UI 2077-13,557). Older adults had the highest COVID-19-associated averted burden and potential to reduce burden further through increased vaccine coverage. 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccinations reduced the burden of COVID-19-associated severe disease.
Keywords: COVID-19; disease burden; epidemiological models; vaccines.
. 2025 Jan 30:49:126808.
doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2025.126808. Online ahead of print. Estimating COVID-19 associated hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and in-hospital deaths averted in the United States by 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccination: A conditional probability, causal inference, and multiplier-based approach
Ryan E Wiegand[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Owen Devine[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Megan Wallace[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Ismael R Ortega-Sanchez[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Huong T Pham[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Diba Khan[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Danielle L Moulia[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Lauren E Roper[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Imelda Trejo[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Katherine E Fleming-Dutra[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Fiona P Havers[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Christopher A Taylor[SUP] 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 39889531
- DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2025.126808
COVID-19-associated hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and in-hospital deaths averted from 2023 to 2024 COVID-19 vaccination from the weeks of October 1, 2023, through April 21, 2024, were estimated via a novel multiplier model that utilized causal inference, conditional probabilities of hospitalization, and correlations between data elements in Monte Carlo simulations. Median COVID-19-associated hospitalizations averted were 68,315 (95 % uncertainty interval [UI] 42,831-97,984), ICU admissions averted were 13,108 (95 % UI 4459-25,042), and in-hospital deaths averted were 5301 (95 % UI 101-14,230). Averted COVID-19-associated burden was highest in adults aged 65 years and older (hospitalizations averted 57,665, 95 % UI 35,442-84,006; ICU admissions averted 10,878, 95 % UI 3104-21,591; in-hospital deaths averted 4779, 95 % UI 0-13,132). Expanding the analytic period to comprise the weeks of September 24, 2023, through August 11, 2024, resulted in 107,197 COVID-19-associated hospitalizations averted (95 % UI 80,692-137,643), 18,292 COVID-19-associated ICU admissions averted (95 % UI 10,062-28,436), and 6749 COVID-19-associated in-hospital deaths averted (95 % UI 2077-13,557). Older adults had the highest COVID-19-associated averted burden and potential to reduce burden further through increased vaccine coverage. 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccinations reduced the burden of COVID-19-associated severe disease.
Keywords: COVID-19; disease burden; epidemiological models; vaccines.