tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2020 May 13;41(0):E066. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200330-00466. [Epub ahead of print]
[Study on transmission dynamic of 15 clusters of coronavirus disease 2019 cases in Ningbo].
[Article in Chinese; Abstract available in Chinese from the publisher]
Pan XX[SUP]1[/SUP], Chen Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Wang AH[SUP]1[/SUP], Wang JM[SUP]1[/SUP], Ye LX[SUP]1[/SUP], Gu SH[SUP]1[/SUP], Fang T[SUP]1[/SUP], Xu GZ[SUP]1[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
in English, Chinese
Objective: To describe the basic characteristics of clusters of coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, and evaluate the generation time (Tg) and basic reproduction number (R(0)) of COVID-19. Methods: The basic information and onset times of the clusters of COVID-19 cases in Ningbo were investigated, the inter-generational interval of the cases were fitted by using gamma distribution, and the R(0) was calculated based on the SEIR model. Results: In the 15 clusters of COVID-19 cases, a total of 52 confirmed cases, 5 cases of nucleic acid- positive asymptomatic cases. The cases occurred from January 23 to February 4, the cases were mainly women. The incubation period was (6.11?3.38) days, and the median was 5 days. The Tg was (6.93?3.70) days. There were no significant differences in Tg between age group <60 years and age group 60 years and above, and between men and women (P=0.551). According to the Tg calculated in this paper, the R(0) of COVID-19 in Ningbo was 3.06 (95%CI: 2.64 - 3.51); according to the reported case transmission interval of 7.5 days in the literature, the R(0) was 3.32 (95%CI: 2.51-9.38 ). Conclusion: There is no age and gender specific differences in the Tg of clusters of COVID-19 cases in Ningbo, and COVID-19 has high infectivity and spreading power in early phase.
KEYWORDS:
Basic regeneration number; COVID-19; Cluster; Generation time
PMID:32397699DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200330-00466
[Study on transmission dynamic of 15 clusters of coronavirus disease 2019 cases in Ningbo].
[Article in Chinese; Abstract available in Chinese from the publisher]
Pan XX[SUP]1[/SUP], Chen Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Wang AH[SUP]1[/SUP], Wang JM[SUP]1[/SUP], Ye LX[SUP]1[/SUP], Gu SH[SUP]1[/SUP], Fang T[SUP]1[/SUP], Xu GZ[SUP]1[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
in English, Chinese
Objective: To describe the basic characteristics of clusters of coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, and evaluate the generation time (Tg) and basic reproduction number (R(0)) of COVID-19. Methods: The basic information and onset times of the clusters of COVID-19 cases in Ningbo were investigated, the inter-generational interval of the cases were fitted by using gamma distribution, and the R(0) was calculated based on the SEIR model. Results: In the 15 clusters of COVID-19 cases, a total of 52 confirmed cases, 5 cases of nucleic acid- positive asymptomatic cases. The cases occurred from January 23 to February 4, the cases were mainly women. The incubation period was (6.11?3.38) days, and the median was 5 days. The Tg was (6.93?3.70) days. There were no significant differences in Tg between age group <60 years and age group 60 years and above, and between men and women (P=0.551). According to the Tg calculated in this paper, the R(0) of COVID-19 in Ningbo was 3.06 (95%CI: 2.64 - 3.51); according to the reported case transmission interval of 7.5 days in the literature, the R(0) was 3.32 (95%CI: 2.51-9.38 ). Conclusion: There is no age and gender specific differences in the Tg of clusters of COVID-19 cases in Ningbo, and COVID-19 has high infectivity and spreading power in early phase.
KEYWORDS:
Basic regeneration number; COVID-19; Cluster; Generation time
PMID:32397699DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200330-00466