Ukraine: projection of number of confirmed H1N1 deaths

[Celvin11]

Projection of number of confirmed H1N1 deaths in Ukraine

Ministry of Health has confirmed 759 deaths from flu and acute respiratory viral infections during the period from October 29, 2009 to January 2, 2010

http://www.ukrinform.ua/rus/order/?id=877154

As of 15 December 2009. From thread: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...d.php?t=136681

Ukraine MOH release summary of outbreak to this point: 202 of 501 deaths confirmed H1N1

(...) they have been able to confirm 202 of the 501 fatalities so far, but note that only 304 of the 501 fatal cases were tested [to this point].

The other 102 tests that returned negative results were likely either seasonal flu deaths, or false negatives (like elsewhere in the world) due to late/shallow testing.

As of 15 December, conclusive laboratory results were not in for the remaining 197 deaths

Projection

The number of confirmated H1N1 deaths as of 2 January 2010 can be projected as follows

Using formula 202:304 returns 66.44 per cent of deaths confirmed due to H1N1 - positive findings of H1N1 virus in the deceased

66.44 % of MoH's number as of 2 January 2010 (759) equals 504 fatal H1N1 cases in Ukraine, constituting a death rate of 10.96 per million pop

[Celvin11]

Re: Ukraine: projection of number of confirmed H1N1 deaths

Breakdown by subdivision

Projection from source: MoH as of 2 January 2010 http://www.moz.gov.ua/ua/main/press/?docID=14558

Official data of present population by subdivision (1 autonomous republic, 24 oblasts and 2 cities) as of 1 January 2009. State Statistics Committee of Ukraine http://www.ukrcensus.gov.ua/eng/news/article;891/

Projected number of H1N1 deaths and death rate by subdivision

Autonomous Republic of Crimea 1 967 300 (15) - 7.62
Vinnitsya region 1 660 000 (10) - 6.02
Volyn region 1 036 200 (19) - 18.33
Dnipropetrovsk region 3 374 200 (23) - 6.81
Donetsk region 4 500 500 (64) - 14.22
Zhytomyr region 1 294 200 (8) - 6.18
Zakarpattya region 1 243 400 (8) - 6.43
Zaporizhzhya region 1 821 300 (16) - 8.78
Ivano-Frankivsk region 1 381 100 (30) - 21.72
Kyiv region 1 727 800 (23) - 13.31
Kirovograd region 1 027 000 (18) - 17.52
Luhansk region 2 331 800 (5) - 2.14
Lviv region 2 552 900 (68) - 26.63
Mykolayiv region 1 195 800 (6) - 5.01
Odessa region 2 392 200 (7) - 2.92
Poltava region 1 511 400 (10) - 6.61
Rivne region 1 151 000 (12) - 10.42
Sumy region 1 184 000 (11) - 9.29
Ternopil region 1 093 300 (17) - 15.55
Kharkiv region 2 782 400 (24) - 8.62
Kherson region 1 099 200 (7) - 6.36
Khmelnitskiy region 1 341 400 (18) - 13.42
Cherkassy region 1 304 300 (17) - 13.03
Chernivtsi region 904 100 (17) - 18.80
Chernihiv region 1 121 300 (19) - 16.94
Kyiv city 2 765 500 (24) - 8.67
Sevastopol city 380 100 (8) - 21.04
Total 46 143 700* (504) - 10.92**

Eastern Ukraine 18 256 800 (162) - 8.87
Centre 14 229 300 (135) - 9.48
Western Ukraine 13 657 600 (207) - 15.15

*According to another table the 1 January 2009 number of Ukraine's resident population was 45 963 359 people (discrepancy of 180 400 people between de facto present and de jure resident population)

**Total resident pop 45 963 359 returns a death rate of 10.96

Sevastopol : preliminary population data replaced with final data as of 1 January after first posting