Discussion thread IV - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

[sharon sanders]

Sharon the cumulative case curve only ever goes up and up. The daily case curve will rise peak and fall exactly as it does in the graph of Chinese cases. Both are however misleading because the normal distribution curve we saw for 1918 or 2009 are a reflection of a disease reaching a natural R(0) of one or less due to acquired herd immunity post mitigation with no serious attempt at containment. For a disease with a natural R(0) of 2 half the population needs to be immune for it to fall to one by this means. China, if you believe the real number of cases to be a million, would have 1/1,400 or 0.0007% of its population immune if antibodies give complete immunity. For COVID herd immunity would require nearer a billion infection. No country has reached a point where herd immunity is playing any significant role. If the exponential growth is blunted, or reversed, it is due to social distancing and associated containment measure. Some of the comments I am seeing imply this will peak in a few months I would say 'you ain't seen nothing yet'.

The graph below shows the UK 2009 pandemic curve, the point to note is the numbers on the y axis, over a 100,000 cases at the peak for 50 million population. We are currently entering a shutdown mode (better late than never) with this being the last day of school for most. There are 30 data points over 7 months i.e. if yesterday's UK new case count was real it would need to be multiplied by 25 to match the graphs scale which would be ~17,000 which would put us at about the 1st of Jul on this epidemic curve. Even the drop from the high peak is only due to flu's extreme seasonality and there is no evidence to support this for COVID, just wishful thinking and hope. Increased UV will definitely help cut fomite transmission but other seasonal factors are an unknown.

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I agree with your UK graph and this is exactly what we are not seeing in China despite their claim of no new cases. Their case growth simply stopped on a dime and flattened. Magic! No new growth anymore!

Maybe they have some vaccine to prevent COVID-19 that they should be telling the world about.

 

[Shiloh]

Hong Kong cases are on the rise. Total on March 14th was 142; today 257 cases. Hospital admissions on March 14th was 64; today, 267.

 

[JJackson]

Sharon looking at the graph the point I would take from it is the individual case curves for China and Italy are identical they both went from negligible to 2000 cases in 14 days. The slight drop in China growth rate from the about the 10th to 20th is not real but due to limited testing and needs the mental massaging to smooth over the jump on the 13th. but the flattening to almost zero increase in daily case number I think is real and due to the draconian measures taken. I read this graph as showing it has taken about a month for China's measures to control the epidemic and expect Italy to follow a similar trajectory but will have to put up with another months growth as per China's curve first. Iran's numbers I would interpret as deviating due to insufficient testing in a badly damaged economy. The US and UK have the same growth curve but, for the reasons given above, it just is not showing up yet. Our public's are due for an unpleasant shock once they find out that they are actually about to become Italy but did not know it because their governments did not contact trace or test as rigorously.
Sharon feel free to come back in a month or two with an 'I told you so' because it should be more than clear by then which of us is closer to the truth.
For the rest of you Sharon and I are good friends and I am sure we will still be long after all of this is over. She has far more experience watching how China reports disease outbreaks in their area where I have only followed this outbreak in detail so I take her concerns very seriously I am just viewing the available data and interpreting it in light of standard epidemiological modelling.

 

[gjs47]

Yes. And I wish that you were still aligned with Henry so that we had the biggest picture with all of your expertise working together for us.

 

[sharon sanders]

Sharon looking at the graph the point I would take from it is the individual case curves for China and Italy are identical they both went from negligible to 2000 cases in 14 days. The slight drop in China growth rate from the about the 10th to 20th is not real but due to limited testing and needs the mental massaging to smooth over the jump on the 13th. but the flattening to almost zero increase in daily case number I think is real and due to the draconian measures taken. I read this graph as showing it has taken about a month for China's measures to control the epidemic and expect Italy to follow a similar trajectory but will have to put up with another months growth as per China's curve first. Iran's numbers I would interpret as deviating due to insufficient testing in a badly damaged economy. The US and UK have the same growth curve but, for the reasons given above, it just is not showing up yet. Our public's are due for an unpleasant shock once they find out that they are actually about to become Italy but did not know it because their governments did not contact trace or test as rigorously.
Sharon feel free to come back in a month or two with an 'I told you so' because it should be more than clear by then which of us is closer to the truth.
For the rest of you Sharon and I are good friends and I am sure we will still be long after all of this is over. She has far more experience watching how China reports disease outbreaks in their area where I have only followed this outbreak in detail so I take her concerns very seriously I am just viewing the available data and interpreting it in light of standard epidemiological modelling.

We will never know the truth about China. Ever.

Deaths we won't know for sure - because they cremated all the bodies. I bet the gov doesn't even know how many have died. Dead people were taken out of their homes and cremated with no COVID-19 test done even though they had the symptoms. Same for many in the hospitals pre-testing.

Compared to Italy the China death per case ratio looks like a bad joke.

China case official cumulative case count = 80,967
deaths = 3,268

Italian official cumulative case count = 41,035
deaths = 3,405

I rest my case.

I will not be engaging in this convo anymore.

 

[sharon sanders]

We are Independent Media.

We do not take ads, corp. or gov $.

Please always use at least 2 sources for your news.

This situation sucks. Stay tuned to your local news. Sign up for benefits when available.

We are with you.

#coronavirus #COVID19 #SARS_COV_2

 

[Gert van der Hoek]

What Are The Best Materials for Making DIY Masks?

With masks sold out during the coronavirus outbreak, many people will have to make do with what some scientists have called “the last resort”: the DIY mask.

Data shows that DIY and homemade masks are effective at capturing viruses. But if forced to make our own mask, what material is best suited to make a mask? As the coronavirus spread around China, netizens reported making masks with tissue paper, kitchen towels, cotton clothing, and even oranges!


The Best Material for Making a Homemade DIY Mask


Researchers at Cambridge University tested a wide range of household materials for homemade masks. To measure effectiveness, they shot Bacillus atrophaeus bacteria (0.93-1.25 microns) and Bacteriophage MS virus (0.023 microns in size) at different household materials.

They measured what percentage the materials could capture and compared them to the more common surgical mask.

 

[etudiant]

What Are The Best Materials for Making DIY Masks?

With masks sold out during the coronavirus outbreak, many people will have to make do with what some scientists have called “the last resort”: the DIY mask.

Data shows that DIY and homemade masks are effective at capturing viruses. But if forced to make our own mask, what material is best suited to make a mask? As the coronavirus spread around China, netizens reported making masks with tissue paper, kitchen towels, cotton clothing, and even oranges!


The Best Material for Making a Homemade DIY Mask


Researchers at Cambridge University tested a wide range of household materials for homemade masks. To measure effectiveness, they shot Bacillus atrophaeus bacteria (0.93-1.25 microns) and Bacteriophage MS virus (0.023 microns in size) at different household materials.

They measured what percentage the materials could capture and compared them to the more common surgical mask.

Thank you, that is a very helpful chart!
Vacuum cleaner bags especially make excellent sense as a stopgap, many are HEPA standard and really work better than the surgical mask shown in the picture.
The tricky part is getting the bag shaped to fit tightly, as that is the crucial aspect for any masks performance.

 

[Gert van der Hoek]

In the Netherlands volunteers are making masks from cloth, normally used to make vacuum cleaner bags. The use the cloth double or triple, don't remember exactly. Was tested a the Technical University in Delft.

 

[Emily]

I remember this being brought up before about hospital beds per 1,000. This website shows comparisons: https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/ind...SH.MED.BEDS.ZS

Thanks, Missouriwatcher. I do see correlations there. If that is a big factor, we are cruisin' for a bruisin' in the U.S...Canada doesn't look so hot, either. This must be why they are building field hospitals here.

https://mynorthwest.com/1775827/king-county-field-hospitals-coronavirus/

And California is trying to snatch away this Navy hospital ship from us.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.co...-to-deploy-hospital-ship-mercy-to-los-angeles

 

[mcphilbrick]

'People Need to Wake Up' - A skeptical rural U.S. lacks resources for coronavirus fight

As U.S. cities virtually shut down and brace for an influx of coronavirus infections, the story in rural America is a different one. From small-town Florida to Georgia’s central peach region, from southern Mississippi to the Kansas and Texas plains, some residents say the threat is overblown. Others worry about how they will face the pending crisis with a widespread lack of resources, supplies and preparedness.

Across the country, more than 125 rural hospitals have closed since 2010, according to the Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research at the University of North Carolina.

“Rural populations are older, sicker, poorer, and have less access to private health insurance,” said Kristie Thompson, a research associate at the Sheps Center. “These are issues that make providing health care challenging in rural communities in the absence of a pandemic.”

And in a pandemic, even small communities that have held onto their hospitals may lack ICU beds and ventilators needed to care for the critically ill during a widespread outbreak.

...

Kansas City Star https://bit.ly/2J2X175

 

[Shiloh]

Former CDC director: There's a long war ahead and our Covid-19 response must adapt
By Dr. Tom Frieden
Updated 9:09 PM ET, Fri March 20, 2020
New York Gov orders 100% of non-essential workers to stay home
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-response-must-adapt-frieden-analysis/index.html

What we're learning about the novel coronavirus


...We learn more about this virus by the day, often by the hour and most of the news is bad. Here are five things we've learned in the past week:

• The virus is much more infectious than influenza or the SARS virus, which it closely resembles. This week, new data showed that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, can live on contaminated surfaces as the SARS virus can, so it may spread, sometimes explosively, from doorknobs, elevator buttons and contaminated surfaces in hospitals and elsewhere. But we also learned that, unlike SARS, patients become highly infectious before they become seriously ill, explaining at least in part why Covid-19 acts like a super-SARS, far more infectious than its vanquished cousin.

• It's not just older people with underlying conditions who become very ill and can die. Younger adults, previously healthy people and some children develop viral pneumonia. Although prior reports suggested that 80% of people got only mild disease, it now appears that about half of these people, despite not needing hospital admission, have moderately severe pneumonia, which can take weeks or longer to recover from.

• Explosive spread will almost certainly overwhelm health care capacity in New York City and elsewhere, and lead to the inability to save patients who could otherwise have been saved. Today's severe cases are in people infected 10 to 14 days ago who got sick five to six days ago and have steadily rogressed to severe illness. That means cases will continue to skyrocket for weeks after spread stops. Not only won't there be enough ventilators, there won't be enough supplies for the ventilators, hospital beds to support patients -- or health care workers to help patients.

• Health care workers are in peril. Thousands were infected in China, more than 3,000 have been infected in Italy, protective equipment is in short supply in the United States, and as health care becomes overwhelmed, it becomes harder to provide care safely.

• It's going to get a lot worse. Not only is the global economy in free-fall but supply chains for essentials, including medicines, are disrupted. Even China, which has successfully tamped down spread, is only now reopening its economy -- which produces components of many medicines people rely on -- and very slowly.

This is a war. And in war, strategy is important...

 

[sharon sanders]

FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers

6m

We are sorry for what is happening to everyone. Us too.

On top of the illness, people are losing their jobs. Sign up for all the benefits that are available.

Talking to your friends about what is going on is good for the heart. You are not alone.

See you back here tomorrow.

----------------------------------

While I am not on twitter, I am working on a re-organization of the Scientific Library with Sally and tetano.

 

[Readymom]

Thank you, that is a very helpful chart!
Vacuum cleaner bags especially make excellent sense as a stopgap, many are HEPA standard and really work better than the surgical mask shown in the picture.
The tricky part is getting the bag shaped to fit tightly, as that is the crucial aspect for any masks performance.

This is VERY helpful! I have to make my son's girlfriend some fabric masks. She was only able to get ONE mask at the hospital she works at. ONE.

I have a question: The chart is show that cotton shirts are only 69% effective, yet the poly blend shirt is 74%. The fabric that is being recommended for the fabric masks that are currently circulating are requesting 100% COTTON. This chart is indicating fabric should be poly blend. Can anyone verify, please.? THANK YOU!

(Here are the two links circulating for fabric masks: https://www.instructables.com/id/AB-Mask-for-a-Nurse-by-a-Nurse/ and https://www.courierpress.com/story/news/2020/03/18/coronavirus-deaconess-ask-public-provide-medical-face-masks/2865273001/

 

[Gert van der Hoek]

This is VERY helpful! I have to make my son's girlfriend some fabric masks. She was only able to get ONE mask at the hospital she works at. ONE.

I have a question: The chart is show that cotton shirts are only 69% effective, yet the poly blend shirt is 74%. The fabric that is being recommended for the fabric masks that are currently circulating are requesting 100% COTTON. This chart is indicating fabric should be poly blend. Can anyone verify, please.? THANK YOU!

(Here are the two links circulating for fabric masks: https://www.instructables.com/id/AB-Mask-for-a-Nurse-by-a-Nurse/ and https://www.courierpress.com/story/news/2020/03/18/coronavirus-deaconess-ask-public-provide-medical-face-masks/2865273001/

Dishtowels? Two layers?

 

[Frozenthunderbolt]

Has anyone found studies/stats about Covid-19 patients outcomes with regard to Athmatics/COPD specifically?
We currently seem to exist in a weird purgatory according to current NZ ministry of health guidelines; we fit the "other preexisting condition" criteria, but are not specifically listed.
Asthma NZ (NGO) has officially recomened we self-isolate. I'm trying to use this to get my principal to excuse me from work as I'm more than a little worried.

 

[B.C.]

Has anyone found studies/stats about Covid-19 patients outcomes with regard to Athmatics/COPD specifically?
We currently seem to exist in a weird purgatory according to current NZ ministry of health guidelines; we fit the "other preexisting condition" criteria, but are not specifically listed.
Asthma NZ (NGO) has officially recomened we self-isolate. I'm trying to use this to get my principal to excuse me from work as I'm more than a little worried.

I really really hate to use tmz as a source but read this earlier this morning and it made heart sink. Please do what you have to do for the safety of yourself.

https://www.tmz.com/2020/03/19/34-ye...l33_te3kmLDiqI

It appears Jeffrey was higher-risk patient. He had a history of asthma and frequent bronchitis as a child, though he outgrew that. He also had undergone surgery for testicular cancer back in 2016.
The CDC now says young people can also be at grave risk ... and this underscores the danger.
He was 34.

 

[gsgs]

you should distuinguish cases in Wuhan and China outside Wuhan. I'm not sure whether Wuhan was contained or almost got a full wave.
10fold underreporting as in Iceland --> 500000 infected = 5% of Wuhan

 

[gsgs]

I had made a mask from vacuum-cleaner bags, marked "hepa", although now I wonder whether hepa was the cleaner, not the bag.
With a tube and nosepiece, worn on the head

 

[Pathfinder]

...
Some question why Italy was caught off guard when the virus outbreak was revealed on Feb. 21.

Remuzzi says he is now hearing information about it from general practitioners. "They remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November," he says. "This means that the virus was circulating, at least in [the northern region of] Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China."

He says it was impossible to combat something you didn't know existed.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/8179...-home-italy-s-coronavirus-deaths-pass-china-s