1918 - Swine or Bird Origin?

[gsgs]

1918 was avian, not swine.
It may have been evolving some years before 1918 in swine,
but still essentially avian.

2009 ** was for >90 years in swine (HA and others)



--------edit------
this was a reply and is split from another thread

 

[HenryN]

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

1918 was avian, not swine.
It may have been evolving some years before 1918 in swine,
but still essentially avian.

2009 ** was for >90 years in swine (HA and others)

Nonsense. 1918 was swine, which has been obvious for years.

 

[St Michael]

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

1918 was avian, not swine.

You are aware that this is actively being debated in the scientific literature, right?

There does not seem to be a consensus view on this at present.

 

[HenryN]

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

You are aware that this is actively being debated in the scientific literature, right?

There does not seem to be a consensus view on this at present.

I believe the "debate" has been settled. Those who claim avian, have backed down and conceded that 1918 links to human and swine H1N1.

 

[Rwilmer]

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

The debate is still ongoing, Dr. Niman you are obviously one that beleives that it was swine and human. Other creditable scientists say avian.

 

[Commonground]

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Let's move the debate to another thread, and stick to the topic of this thread, thanks.

 

[HenryN]

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

The debate is still ongoing, Dr. Niman you are obviously one that beleives that it was swine and human. Other creditable scientists say avian.

Name one. I believe that the Nature paper showing that 1918 patients had neutralizing antibodies to the 2009 swine flu, and Hong Kong published the PNAS paper on linkages between 1918 and human and swine sequences, the "debate" ended.

 

[St Michael]

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Let's move the debate to another thread, and stick to the topic of this thread, thanks.

Unfortunately, that debate is integral to this debate.

If 1918 was swine, not avian, then parallels between 1918 and 2009 are essential in predicting this fall's virulence.

If 1918 was avian, then parallels between 1918 are purely coincidental and have no bearing whatsoever on the 2009 pandemic.

Its just not that simple to tease out these two debates, and whether 1918 was swine or not will have a huge impact on Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec.

 

[Rwilmer]

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

http://www.pandemicinfluenza.org/tumpey.html

 

[St Michael]

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

I can support it, all the support I need in in here: http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/health/20051005-1443-pandemicflu.html

That article is from October 5, 2005

The scientific debate over 1918 as swine versus avian has evolved quite a bit since then.

 

[Rwilmer]

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

This guy led the team that recreated the virus: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffery_Taubenberger

 

[Rwilmer]

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

This is a slightly newer article, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/18/health/18flu.html

 

[HenryN]

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

This is a slightly newer article, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/18/health/18flu.html

The Nature and PNAS papers were published several weeks ago (as in 2009). The above story is 2007. Taubenburger has already started changing his tune.

 

[HenryN]

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

This is a slightly newer article, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/18/health/18flu.html

Here is a 2009 article (I think the only person still saying 1918 is avian is a poster on this thread)
http://www.nhs.uk/news/2009/07July/Pages/1918PandemicAndSwineFlu.aspx

H1N1 traced to 1918 pandemic

All human-adapted influenza A viruses "are descendants, direct or indirect, of that founding virus" says Jeffrey Taubenberger, a co-author of the report and a senior investigator at the Laboratory of Infectious Diseases of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the US.

The new swine flu virus is a fourth-generation descendant of the 1918 virus.

 

[gsgs]

Re: 1918 - Swine or Bird Origin?

----------repost-------------------------------

Well, OK, it may depend on the segment.
We have good avian matches for 2,3 - the
Hongong paper gives ~1905 as origin, I think it was later.

The earliest which they have is ~1885 for segments 1,4,5,7

The 1889 pandemic was not H1 (H3N8 ?)
AT-score also shows avian character

2009** has been in mammals since at least 11,41,11,91,91,30,30,91 years
in the 8 segments.

1918flu had been in mammals since at most
33,13,13,33,33,13,33,19 years if we take the HK-paper

it's still unclear, 1918 is far back, few sequences from that time.
It could still have jumped entirely from birds to humans
directly in 1915 or later

segments 7,8 are also very close to MDk/Alberta/127/77


there were signs of severe outbreaks in Europe,USA in summer 1918,
no such signs now. And 2nd wave was presumably mutated,
much more virulent in the same locations and people
where wave 1 was mild

--------------------------------------------

see also this thread:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=115588

 

[pjie2]

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Name one. I believe that the Nature paper showing that 1918 patients had neutralizing antibodies to the 2009 swine flu, and Hong Kong published the PNAS paper on linkages between 1918 and human and swine sequences, the "debate" ended.

Why would it? I thought the whole point was that seasonal H1N1 and swine H1N1 are both supposedly descended from the 1918 pandemic. Finding similarities between them therefore says precisely nothing about the host it was in prior to 1918.

 

[HenryN]

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Why would it? I thought the whole point was that seasonal H1N1 and swine H1N1 are both supposedly descended from the 1918 pandemic. Finding similarities between them therefore says precisely nothing about the host it was in prior to 1918.

We've been through this before. There is one avian prior to 1918 and it maps with avian collected after 1918 (easily distinguished from mammalian). 1918 amd all mammlian after 1918 map with mammalian.

No one is now calling it avian because there is NO data to support avian (which is why I asked for ONE name of a scientist who now says avian).

 

[Mamabird]

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Here is a 2009 article (I think the only person still saying 1918 is avian is a poster on this thread)
http://www.nhs.uk/news/2009/07July/Pages/1918PandemicAndSwineFlu.aspx

H1N1 traced to 1918 pandemic

All human-adapted influenza A viruses "are descendants, direct or indirect, of that founding virus" says Jeffrey Taubenberger, a co-author of the report and a senior investigator at the Laboratory of Infectious Diseases of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the US.

The new swine flu virus is a fourth-generation descendant of the 1918 virus.

In quoting the story, we might also wish to include this:

"According to the authors of the report, the Spanish flu's H1N1 virus, which caused tens of millions of deaths in 1918, was also transmitted from humans to pigs during the pandemic. "

So, according to Jefferey himself, he would obviously agree that humans infected pigs during the pandemic, but I do not recall him agreeing with certainty that the opposite occured and caused the pandemic.

 

[Mamabird]

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Unfortunately, that debate is integral to this debate.

If 1918 was swine, not avian, then parallels between 1918 and 2009 are essential in predicting this fall's virulence.

I wish it were that simple. Unfortunately, the current swine flu virus has a mind and direction of its own, based on today's hosts and environment. Even if we knew with certainty the 1918 origin, predicting the future of Swine Flu would be interesting discussion, but problematic.

 

[HenryN]

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

Re: Mexico Swine Flu Re-infection Spec

In quoting the story, we might also wish to include this:

"According to the authors of the report, the Spanish flu's H1N1 virus, which caused tens of millions of deaths in 1918, was also transmitted from humans to pigs during the pandemic. "

So, according to Jefferey himself, he would obviously agree that humans infected pigs during the pandemic, but I do not recall him agreeing with certainty that the opposite occured and caused the pandemic.

Right. He doesn't think H1N1 was in swine prior to 1918 because there were no reports of sick swine, which doesn't mean much because most swine infected with H1N1 are asymptomatic (but no one is calling 1918 avian).