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A Few Ebola Cases Likely In U.S., Air Traffic Analysis Predicts

Re: A Few Ebola Cases Likely In U.S., Air Traffic Analysis Predicts

Gemineye said:
NPR
by Richard Knox
September 04, 2014 1:11 PM ET


The probability of seeing at least one imported case of Ebola in the U.S. is as high as 18 percent by late September, researchers reported Tuesday in the journal PLOS Currents: Outbreaks. That's compared with less than 5 percent right now.

snip

http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandso...ases-likely-in-u-s-air-traffic-analysis-shows
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How do they pick those dates? Why 5% now and 18% by Sept. 22nd. I still do not know why we are not stopping air travel from those regions. Now we are bringing back a 3rd missionary who knew what he was getting into. I just do not get it. :confused:
 
Re: A Few Ebola Cases Likely In U.S., Air Traffic Analysis Predicts

jeffrey said:
How do they pick those dates? Why 5% now and 18% by Sept. 22nd. I still do not know why we are not stopping air travel from those regions. Now we are bringing back a 3rd missionary who knew what he was getting into. I just do not get it. :confused:
Click to expand...

Are you saying that 1) he shouldn't have gone to help? Or 2) that he shouldn't have gotten infected because he presumably knew that the apparently uninfected child that everyone was playing with was actually contagious? Or 3) that he should have toughed it out there and not come home? I'm sure the third choice is indeed what many people would suggest. It probably has something to do with why the Western nations aren't in a big hurry to help. Why should we risk our doctors, after all? But at least if they do get sick they shouldn't be so inconsiderate as to take a chance on infecting the good people back home.

I'll apologize in advance for sounding snarky or sarcastic. This is just about the tenth time today that I've come across this kind of question, and it's beginning to get to me.
 
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Re: A Few Ebola Cases Likely In U.S., Air Traffic Analysis Predicts

Lizw said:
Are you saying that 1) he shouldn't have gone to help? Or 2) that he shouldn't have gotten infected because he presumably knew that the apparently uninfected child that everyone was playing with was actually contagious? Or 3) that he should have toughed it out there and not come home? I'm sure the third choice is indeed what many people would suggest. It probably has something to do with why the Western nations aren't in a big hurry to help. Why should we risk our doctors, after all? But at least if they do get sick they shouldn't be so inconsiderate as to take a chance on infecting the good people back home.

I'll apologize in advance for sounding snarky or sarcastic. This is just about the tenth time today that I've come across this kind of question, and it's beginning to get to me.
Click to expand...

I think it is great that he wanted to help, but I think he should have been treated there and not flown back to the US. I am presuming if you are hearing this so much is because many are all wondering the same thing.
 
Re: A Few Ebola Cases Likely In U.S., Air Traffic Analysis Predicts

The corollary to that is "Don't go out there to help unless you're prepared to die there, because your fellow citizens don't want you back if you get sick." In what other set of circumstances do we say that to health care workers? It's one thing to caution people that going into a risky area could result in death, or even to say that the resources might not be available to bring them back. But telling someone that 'we don't want you back if you get sick' seems to me to be a good way to discourage people from going.
 
Re: A Few Ebola Cases Likely In U.S., Air Traffic Analysis Predicts

Liz, there are so many misunderstandings even here in the US. I work in Aerospace with, yup, Rocket Scientists and they think this is a government plot to depopulate the country.

I applaud the health care workers that volunteer to help. They are very brave and I'm confident in the ability for our private enterprises to bring any infected home and care for them. It's a part of the risks and costs that SIM and other NGOs take on. As long as it's not the taxpayer funding this there shouldn't be a problem, it's ignorance that is infectious.
 
Re: A Few Ebola Cases Likely In U.S., Air Traffic Analysis Predicts

jeffrey said:
How do they pick those dates? Why 5% now and 18% by Sept. 22nd. I still do not know why we are not stopping air travel from those regions. Now we are bringing back a 3rd missionary who knew what he was getting into. I just do not get it. :confused:
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There is no way to stop people from getting out. They will simply travel to another country and hop on a plane there. Not to mention they need supplies from the outside world if they are going to beat this.
 
Re: A Few Ebola Cases Likely In U.S., Air Traffic Analysis Predicts

Hi,

I'm new here so forgive me if I step on any toes.

jeffrey said:
I think it is great that he wanted to help, but I think he should have been treated there and not flown back to the US. I am presuming if you are hearing this so much is because many are all wondering the same thing.
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There are good, non-humanitarian, selfish, scientific and health readiness reasons for bringing these infected citizens back to the US.

1) They cannot test modern medical techniques and their impact upon patient survival in Liberia. The structure doesn't exist. 2) They can't fully understand the disease's long term impacts when the patients are not in the US for follow up observations. 3) They cannot test the efficacy of isolation procedures in facilities without having the patients.

I could go on...

Personally I think they should come to the US for the reasons above and the country's honor code. This is how you treat your citizens.

I hope he makes it. There's no more Zmapp.
 
Re: A Few Ebola Cases Likely In U.S., Air Traffic Analysis Predicts

Yes, thank you. All very good points. One significant discovery was the need for careful monitoring of blood electrolytes and to maintain hydration. No matter how many people happen to survive in Africa, there is currently no certain way to determine why one person lived and another died. Look at how long it has taken to winkle out some of that information about the 1918 flu epidemic. We're in much the same situation in Africa in terms of understanding what works and what doesn't. The longer it takes to learn that, the more likely it is that we'll have both imported and locally acquired cases in the US without yet knowing how best to treat them.
 
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Re: A Few Ebola Cases Likely In U.S., Air Traffic Analysis Predicts

Welcome to FluTrackers Dallas and erruve.

Erruve's point is an excellent one. As of today, the medical specialists and health care workers who are most experienced in treating Ebola cases are scattered throughout Africa. Other countries outside Africa need to quickly learn how to treat and handle Ebola patients.

So when Ebola cases unexpectedly arrive in developed nations, medical staff in those countries will be equipped to handle the cases and hopefully prevent large scale transmission.
 
Re: A Few Ebola Cases Likely In U.S., Air Traffic Analysis Predicts

Hi everyone,

This is my first post, but I've been following FluTrackers for a number of years now.

I thought that this study on air traffic was interesting and there is also another study done earlier this month by Brockmann et al. that takes a network analysis perspective of probable pathways into account:

http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/projects/ebola/

There is an interesting interactive component as well:

http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/D3/ebola/

This is the study that is referenced in Footnote 5 of "Assessing the International Spreading Risk Associated with the 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak."
 
Re: A Few Ebola Cases Likely In U.S., Air Traffic Analysis Predicts

Welcome erruve, Chris and Dallas! :)

Dallas said:
Liz, there are so many misunderstandings even here in the US. I work in Aerospace with, yup, Rocket Scientists and they think this is a government plot to depopulate the country.

I applaud the health care workers that volunteer to help. They are very brave and I'm confident in the ability for our private enterprises to bring any infected home and care for them. It's a part of the risks and costs that SIM and other NGOs take on. As long as it's not the taxpayer funding this there shouldn't be a problem, it's ignorance that is infectious.
Click to expand...

I agree, Dallas, about the courage of SIM and other workers in this outbreak and from what I've read, SIM is covering all costs for their employees. I have no fear about citizen patients being brought back to this country. If Patrick Sawyer had been safely transported back here the situation in Nigeria would be much better now.

As for those rocket scientists - I think they must be pulling your leg. But if they ever share concerns about environmental issues related to that industry - I'd take them seriously. ;)
 
Re: A Few Ebola Cases Likely In U.S., Air Traffic Analysis Predicts

Dallas said:
Liz, there are so many misunderstandings even here in the US. I work in Aerospace with, yup, Rocket Scientists and they think this is a government plot to depopulate the country.
Click to expand...

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to come to that conclusion...or does it? :D
 
Re: A Few Ebola Cases Likely In U.S., Air Traffic Analysis Predicts

hcc - I think Lizw was responding to Jeffrey's comment that Dr. Sacra should not have been flown back to the US for treatment in Nebraska. (Post #2) I am sure Lizw will respond to you about her own personal opinions.

As a general note to all members here -

Personal attacks are not acceptable, but thoughtful discussions about varying opinions are welcome. We all need to remain respectful of other posters and their opinions.
 
Re: A Few Ebola Cases Likely In U.S., Air Traffic Analysis Predicts

hcc I agree absolutely. Good post :)
 
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