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A report on Global Spreading of 1957 1968 pandemic and 2009 novel strain

turkali10

Well-known member
Evolution of Influenza A Virus Nucleoprotein Genes: Implications
for the Origins of HlNi Human and Classical Swine Viruses


The mode of interspecies transmission of influenza viruses
or genes from the avian host reservoir to the human population
remains unresolved. The 1957 and 1968 pandemic
viruses originated from China, and there is anecdotal evidence
that 19th century pandemic viruses also originated
from China (28).


http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/reprint/65/7/3704.pdf
 
Re: A report of Global Spread of 1957 1968 spreading and 2009 novel strain

Re: A report of Global Spread of 1957 1968 spreading and 2009 novel strain

Serologic Survey of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Virus, Guangxi Province, China

We used hemagglutination inhibition (HI) and virus neutralization (VN) assays to detect antibodies in 4,043 serum samples from residents (7–84 years of age) of 2 counties in Guangxi Province, People’s Republic of China, collected during July–August 2008. These persons were mostly farmers who lived in rural areas.

Screening by HI assay showed that 70 samples were positive (titers >40) for CA04 (Table). Examination by VN assay showed that of 70 HI-positive serum samples, 12 had detectable neutralizing antibodies to CA04 (positive rate 0.3%).


http://www.cdc.gov/eid/content/15/11/pdfs/09-0868.pdf

FluTracker link:http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=127802
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Re: A report on Global Spreading of 1957 1968 pandemic and 2009 novel strain

In this study, we confirmed that the novel A/H1N1 influenza
virus originated from the reassortment between influenza
virus lineages from triple-reassortant swine, Eurasia swine,
and North American swine, suggesting an urgent concern
on the potential reassortment of the new A/H1N1 viruses
with the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus. The very low
genetic divergence and the longer phylogenetic branch
length to their nearest genetic neighbors indicate that the
origin of the novel A/H1N1 virus is unlikely to be a very
recent event.

http://www.springerlink.com/content/856v174615886166/fulltext.pdf
 
Re: A report on Global Spreading of 1957 1968 pandemic and 2009 novel strain

so, from positive titers they conclude that the virus did circulate
in China before 2009 ?
(I haven't read the paper)

it could have been a similar virus in pigs but not this special
reassortant. Serology only targets HA


--------edit---------

oops, 19th century, not 2009

> anecdotal evidence
> that 19th century pandemic viruses also originated
> from China (28).
 
Re: A report on Global Spreading of 1957 1968 pandemic and 2009 novel strain

The source of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) virus is of
concern internationally, and the answer is still uncertain.
Various media report that the new virus is a very unusual
mixture resulting from multiple reassortments by a human
virus, a bird virus and two swine viruses. Our study demonstrates
that all 8 genome segments of this newly
emerging influenza virus are very closely related to those
of swine influenza viruses. Linkage analysis revealed two
major linkage groups: one group containing segments 1, 2,
3, 4, 5, and 8, dominated by North American swine flu
viruses, and the other containing segments 6 and 7, dominated
by Eurasian swine flu viruses. Furthermore, two
North American swine virus strains were identified with
highly homologous segments 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 8, and
similarly, two Eurasian swine virus strains were found with
highly homologous segments 6 and 7.


http://www.springerlink.com/content/d2578p4410k84675/fulltext.pdf
 
Re: A report on Global Spreading of 1957 1968 pandemic and 2009 novel strain

Pandemic H1N1/09 Virus Generation
Based on genomic analysis results, it appears that the
pandemic H1N1/09 virus first evolved around September
2008 and circulated in the human population for several
months before the first cases were detected. It emerged
from a triple-reassortant swine influenza A (H1N1) virus
that developed and became enzootic in pigs in North
America at the end of the 1990s [15?17]. This triple-reassortant
swine influenza A virus contains genes from
avian, human, and swine influenza viruses. Its spread to
humans was detected sporadically, but all patients recovered.
Severe illnesses of the lower respiratory tract and
unusual influenza symptoms, such as diarrhea, were reported
[16]. The triple-reassortant swine influenza A
(H1N1) virus contains classic swine RNA segments of
North American lineage (hemagglutinin [H], nucleoprotein
[NP], non-structural proteins [NS], neuraminidase
[N], matrix proteins [M]), avian influenza RNA segments
of North American lineage (polymerase basic protein 2
[PB2], polymerase acidic protein [PA]), and PB1 of human
seasonal H3N2 viruses [15, 16]. In the pandemic
H1N1/09 virus, the N and M segments of triple-reassortant
swine influenza A (H1N1) were replaced by N and M
from the Eurasian influenza A (H1N1) swine lineage [15,
16]. Therefore, in contrast to the 1918 pandemic for which
the zoonotic sources of the introduced viral gene segments
remain to this day ambiguous [14], it is known that pandemic
H1N1/09 virus probably emerged from swine into
humans. However, there were no confirmed influenza
virus outbreaks in Central American pigs before the reported
H1N1/09 infections in humans. The asymptomatic
infection of H1N1/09 in specific pathogen-free miniature
pigs (swine influenza model), despite efficient virus replication,
may explain the lack of reports on H1N1/09
outbreaks in pigs prior to its transmission to humans [18].
This lack of similarity between the pandemic H1N1/
09 virus and its nearest relatives indicates that its gene
segments have already circulated for years [17, 19]. The
genetic diversity of pandemic H1N1/09 virus is low, suggesting
that its transmission to humans results from a
single event or that very similar viruses were transmitted.
The pandemic H1N1/09 virus lacks molecular markers
thought to be associated with the adaptation of influenza
A viruses to humans [19]. Consequently, pandemic
H1N1/09 virus spread in humans appears to result from
unidentified molecular events that warrant further studying.
Moreover, the results of evolutionary analysis aimed
at estimating the timescale of the origins and the early
development of pandemic H1N1/09 virus epidemic revealed
that the initial transmission to humans occurred
several months before the recognition of the outbreak
[17]. The multiple genetic ancestry of pandemic H1N1/09
virus suggests that the pandemic H1N1/09 virus has
developed naturally, and no indications of artificial origin
were found [17]. The pandemic H1N1/09 virus pandemic
clearly proves that the mixing of genetic elements from
different influenza A viruses in pigs can result in pandemic
viruses and that the surveillance of influenza viruses
in pigs is warranted.


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Re: A report on Global Spreading of 1957 1968 pandemic and 2009 novel strain

Thank you Turkali10. Some very interesting papers.
 
Re: A report on Global Spreading of 1957 1968 pandemic and 2009 novel strain

I think, the Sept.08 calculation is old and meanwhile corrected.
Current consensus seems to be that it started in Jan. or Feb.
 
Re: A report on Global Spreading of 1957 1968 pandemic and 2009 novel strain

Influenza pandemics occur when an influenza
virus with a hemagglutinin (HA), against
which there is little or no existing immunity,
emerges in the human population and efficiently
transmits from human to human. In serological study of Guagxhi province China HA of California 04 strain is active in that period.
 
Re: A report on Global Spreading of 1957 1968 pandemic and 2009 novel strain

So if I am reading this right, this data - especially the seroconversion data, is potentially indicative of an intermediary strain of some sort circulating in the Ghanxi region prior to emergence of full pandemic H1N1?

It would make sense given the widespread outbreaks of disease in pigs in China for the period of 2008
 
Re: A report on Global Spreading of 1957 1968 pandemic and 2009 novel strain

yes, but less than 1%
in USA it was ~5%
 
Re: A report on Global Spreading of 1957 1968 pandemic and 2009 novel strain

Many people suffered from swİne flu and some people (İncludİng chİldren) paİd wİth theİr lİves. Thİs global dİsaster must be stopped before turnİng İnto a real nİghtmare.
 
Re: A report on Global Spreading of 1957 1968 pandemic and 2009 novel strain

I think I can safely say that everyone on this site would agree with you. No-one can predict the future, but we are all aware of the potential of this virus, and the more we learn, the better equipped we may be able to help others to detect/ head off/ find mitigating stategies that can help individuals everywhere.
 
Re: A report on Global Spreading of 1957 1968 pandemic and 2009 novel strain

as always, it depends on the cost.

When it's too expensive to stop it, then we shouldn't.

But I think my threshold is higher here than that for average others.
I remember that I once estimated we should ~triple our budgets
for panflu-preparedness
 
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