tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2015 Aug 18;12(8):9750-9767.
[h=1]Assessing the Role of Voluntary Self-Isolation in the Control of Pandemic Influenza Using a Household Epidemic Model.[/h] Zhang Q[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2[/SUP], Wang D[SUP]3[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] In the absence of effective vaccines, antiviral drugs and personal protective measures, such as voluntary self-isolation, have been a part of preparedness plans for the next influenza pandemic. We used a household model to assess the effect of voluntary self-isolation on outbreak control when antiviral drugs are not provided sufficiently early. We found that the early initiation of voluntary self-isolation can overcome the negative effects caused by a delay in antiviral drug distribution when enough symptomatic individuals comply with home confinement at symptom onset. For example, for the baseline household reproduction number R[SUB]H0[/SUB] = 2:5, if delays of one or two days occur between clinical symptom development and the start of antiviral prophylaxis, then compliance rates of q ≥ 0:41 and q ≥ 0:6, respectively, are required to achieve the same level of effectiveness as starting antiviral prophylaxis at symptom onset. When the time to beginning voluntary self-isolation after symptom onset increases from zero to two days, this strategy has a limited effect on reducing the transmission of influenza; therefore, this strategy should be implemented as soon as possible. In addition, the effect of voluntary self-isolation decreases substantially with the proportion of asymptomatic infections increasing.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] antiviralprophylaxis; household reproduction number; mathematical modeling; pandemic influenza; voluntary self-isolation
PMID: 26295248 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
[h=1]Assessing the Role of Voluntary Self-Isolation in the Control of Pandemic Influenza Using a Household Epidemic Model.[/h] Zhang Q[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2[/SUP], Wang D[SUP]3[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] In the absence of effective vaccines, antiviral drugs and personal protective measures, such as voluntary self-isolation, have been a part of preparedness plans for the next influenza pandemic. We used a household model to assess the effect of voluntary self-isolation on outbreak control when antiviral drugs are not provided sufficiently early. We found that the early initiation of voluntary self-isolation can overcome the negative effects caused by a delay in antiviral drug distribution when enough symptomatic individuals comply with home confinement at symptom onset. For example, for the baseline household reproduction number R[SUB]H0[/SUB] = 2:5, if delays of one or two days occur between clinical symptom development and the start of antiviral prophylaxis, then compliance rates of q ≥ 0:41 and q ≥ 0:6, respectively, are required to achieve the same level of effectiveness as starting antiviral prophylaxis at symptom onset. When the time to beginning voluntary self-isolation after symptom onset increases from zero to two days, this strategy has a limited effect on reducing the transmission of influenza; therefore, this strategy should be implemented as soon as possible. In addition, the effect of voluntary self-isolation decreases substantially with the proportion of asymptomatic infections increasing.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] antiviralprophylaxis; household reproduction number; mathematical modeling; pandemic influenza; voluntary self-isolation
PMID: 26295248 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]