Bifurcations Abound

[Snicklefritz]

Dr Margaret ChanDirector-General of the World Health Organization
Madam Chair, distinguished delegates, ladies and gentlemen,

I will be very brief. We are meeting at a critical time.

For five long years, countries in several parts of the world have been closely responding to outbreaks of H5N1 avian influenza in animals, and sporadic cases in humans.

I thank health officials, clinicians, and scientists in all these countries, and the many experts and laboratories located elsewhere, for their unflagging vigilance and diligence in keeping close watch over this virus.

Today, we know that a virus with great pandemic potential, the new strain of the H1N1 virus, has emerged from another source on another side of the world. This virus has quickly demonstrated its capacity to spread easily from one person to another, to spread widely within an affected country, and to spread rapidly to additional countries.

We expect this pattern of international spread to continue.

This is a time of great uncertainty, and great pressure on governments, ministries of health, and WHO. I take it as my personal responsibility to keep the world informed, to adjust our recommendations as the situation evolves, and to prepare for a multiplicity of future scenarios.

Many critical measures are under way, for enhanced preparedness and for mitigation of the health effects. As I have consistently stated, gaps in response, coping, and mitigation capacities in different countries must be a top priority for WHO and the international community.

We are all in this together.

Fortunately, countries with confirmed H1N1 cases have launched aggressive responses to the new virus. Their timely sharing of viruses for risk assessment and analysis, and for making seed vaccine is commendable. We are getting new data daily, and we are beginning to get an early picture of the clinical spectrum and patterns of spread.

Outside Mexico, where the outbreak is not yet fully understood, the overwhelming majority of cases have been mild and self-limiting, with no need for treatment. Cases of severe or fatal infections have been largely, but not exclusively, confined to people with underlying chronic conditions.

We do not know if this partly reassuring picture will be maintained. Dr Fukuda will brief you fully on the current situation.

Apart from the intrinsic mutability of influenza viruses, other factors could alter the severity of current disease patterns, though in completely unknowable ways.

Let me draw your attention to just two.

First, scientists are concerned about possible changes that could take place as the virus spreads to the southern hemisphere and encounters currently circulating human viruses, as the normal influenza season in this hemisphere begins.

Second, as all of you know, the H5N1 avian influenza virus is endemic in poultry in some parts of the world. It is out there, entrenched. No one can predict how the H5N1 virus will behave under the pressure of a pandemic.
As I said, we are meeting at a time of crisis that could have global implications. What the world needs most, right now, urgently, is information at all possible levels.

I wish you a most productive and fruitful meeting.

Thank you.

(emphasis mine)

http://www.who.int/dg/speeches/2009/pandemic_influenza_preparedness_20090515/en/index.html

I cannot help but notice that Dr. Chan's two attention points are neither mutually exclusive or inclusive. It is not either/or. Both threat scenrios could be realized concurrently, or consecutively, one or the other, or neither.

But, in my amateur forays into Complexity I've developed a different, and more systemic view of the natural world. It is from the point of view of Complex Adaptive Systems (and influenza is a Complex Adaptive System). My view, or rather, the view of Complexity Science is from above or outside, rather than from within. It's a view that attempts to understand the detailed interactions of component parts without reducing them to component parts in themselves.

What will happen when the different component parts of the system I will arbitrarily call 'Influenza Writ Large' begin to interact with each other? In general, and based upon our understanding of complex systems, new properties will emerge and the system will self-organize into a system that is more 'fit' for the 'fitness landscape'.

The possible interactions are many...too many to hold in my mind at one time. But, there is an image of an evolving complex adaptive system that is worth a thousand words. It's called a bifurcation diagram ( or chart) and it graphically portrays how a system can evolve different behaviors at as it attemps to adapt to a changing environment.

Pick any of the current influenza viruses and start at the left. At the first divide (bifurcation) the behavior of the virus splits due to selection pressure from other viruses, other influenza viruses, anti-virals, vaccines, the changing number of susceptible hosts, and so on. Then as the pressure increases, each bifurcated behavior splits again, and again. At some point, the system is bifurcated many times and has evolved to what is called the 'edge of chaos' where maximum creativity and adaptibility is occuring. Further to the right is called the 'region of chaos'.

This image haunts me, and Dr. Chan has reminded me of it's power.

The next year is going to be very interesting, indeed...

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Bifurcations Abound

I cannot help but notice that Dr. Chan's two attention points are neither mutually exclusive or inclusive. It is not either/or. Both threat scenarios could be realized concurrently, or consecutively, one or the other, or neither.

This needs to be made clear to the world at large. There is no scientific basis to assume that we can only have one pandemic at a time with a single dominant strain. H5N1 is not on hold simply because we are now concerned with A(H1N1). It still has the same catastrophic potential now that it had 2-3 months ago.

. . .Pick any of the current influenza viruses and start at the left. At the first divide (bifurcation) the behavior of the virus splits due to selection pressure from other viruses, other influenza viruses, anti-virals, vaccines, the changing number of susceptible hosts, and so on. Then as the pressure increases, each bifurcated behavior splits again, and again. At some point, the system is bifurcated many times and has evolved to what is called the 'edge of chaos' where maximum creativity and adaptability is occurring. Further to the right is called the 'region of chaos'.

I don't know about bifurcation theory, but don't you think you equation and two dimensional graph over simplify the real situation?

You discussion focuses on viral issues but we need to incorporate many other variables and dimensions, such as a geographic dimension, a temporal axis, socio-economic variability, perceptual components, human nature, etc. The complexity and the potential outcomes are indeed staggering.

Unfortunately we may have already missed the "edge of chaos" with its maximum creativity and adaptability. The "region of chaos" may be a lot closer than we think.

 

[Snicklefritz]

Re: Bifurcations Abound

YES!! Laidback_Al - you're spot on! It really is three-dimensional, or more. Each variable you mentioned is a different dimension. We really need Hamiltonian Equations and phase space to describe it (and I have no clue how to do that ).

I'm thinking were just at the 'edge of chaos', but that only takes into account what we know is 'confirmed'. It doesn't take into account what is going on that we don't know, and you may be quite correct in saying we are already in the 'region of chaos'.

 

[Lizw]

Re: Bifurcations Abound

One is tempted to perceive each of the bifurcation points as the beginning of a possible alternate reality . . .

What I find fascinating is that if you zoom in on one of the lobes in a bifurcation diagram, it appears almost identical to the original curve that began the iteration. So values at the micro level are related to each other the same way they are at the macro level, like fractals. The real-world implication is that large changes or trends move in approximately the same way as small local changes, out to the edge of chaos, where it's no longer possible to plot them.

 

[Snicklefritz]

Re: Bifurcations Abound

Lizw, I just started laughing with delight when I read you're reply. Obviously, you understand 'self-similarity'. Welcome aboard! You also hint at the 'many worlds' interpretation of quantum theory. So cool! I look forward to discussions in the future.

 

[Lizw]

Re: Bifurcations Abound

Thank you--I'm not well versed in the field, beyond being an engineer who gets the math. The formal exploration of chaos theory was in its infancy when I was in school, but I was always fascinated with graphical solutions to problems, and when I realized you could write computer programs to plot them, I was hooked.