tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
BMC Infect Dis
. 2021 Aug 21;21(1):849.
doi: 10.1186/s12879-021-06560-3.
Modeling analysis reveals the transmission trend of COVID-19 and control efficiency of human intervention
Chaoyuan Cheng[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Xinru Wan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhibin Zhang[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused huge damage to public health around the world. Revealing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and control efficiency is important for containing the spread of the virus.
Methods: By using a logistic growth model, we estimated the transmission parameters of COVID-19 in China and six other countries (Republic of Korea, Iran, Italy, Spain, France and Germany). The transmission parameters represent the maximum daily increase rate in the early stages of the epidemic and the control efficiency under human intervention. The control efficiency was determined by the significant decrease of the daily increase rate in time and cumulative cases.
Results: We found the daily increase rate of cumulative cases of COVID-19 decreased significantly in both time and cumulative cases in all countries, but the decreasing trend was not further reduced in other countries except for China and Republic of Korea. The response of the daily increase rate to control measures was much earlier than the number of new cases.
Conclusions: Our results suggested that lockdown at the epicenter and social distancing effectively reduced the spread of COVID-19 in the early stage, but identification and isolation of patients, suspected cases and people with close contact at a community level is essential in further reduction of the daily increase rate of COVID-19.
Keywords: COVID-19; Control efficiency; SARS-CoV-2; Spread pattern.
. 2021 Aug 21;21(1):849.
doi: 10.1186/s12879-021-06560-3.
Modeling analysis reveals the transmission trend of COVID-19 and control efficiency of human intervention
Chaoyuan Cheng[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Xinru Wan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhibin Zhang[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34418983
- DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06560-3
Abstract
Background: A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused huge damage to public health around the world. Revealing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and control efficiency is important for containing the spread of the virus.
Methods: By using a logistic growth model, we estimated the transmission parameters of COVID-19 in China and six other countries (Republic of Korea, Iran, Italy, Spain, France and Germany). The transmission parameters represent the maximum daily increase rate in the early stages of the epidemic and the control efficiency under human intervention. The control efficiency was determined by the significant decrease of the daily increase rate in time and cumulative cases.
Results: We found the daily increase rate of cumulative cases of COVID-19 decreased significantly in both time and cumulative cases in all countries, but the decreasing trend was not further reduced in other countries except for China and Republic of Korea. The response of the daily increase rate to control measures was much earlier than the number of new cases.
Conclusions: Our results suggested that lockdown at the epicenter and social distancing effectively reduced the spread of COVID-19 in the early stage, but identification and isolation of patients, suspected cases and people with close contact at a community level is essential in further reduction of the daily increase rate of COVID-19.
Keywords: COVID-19; Control efficiency; SARS-CoV-2; Spread pattern.