tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Can Commun Dis Rep
. 2022 Jul 7;48(7-8):292-302.
doi: 10.14745/ccdr.v48i78a01. Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada: What could have happened?
Nicholas H Ogden[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Patricia Turgeon[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Aamir Fazil[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Julia Clark[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Vanessa Gabriele-Rivet[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Theresa Tam[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Victoria Ng[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
This study illustrates what may have happened, in terms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections, hospitalizations and deaths in Canada, had public health measures not been used to control the COVID-19 epidemic, and had restrictions been lifted with low levels of vaccination, or no vaccination, of the Canadian population. The timeline of the epidemic in Canada, and the public health interventions used to control the epidemic, are reviewed. Comparisons against outcomes in other countries and counterfactual modelling illustrate the relative success of control of the epidemic in Canada. Together, these observations show that without the use of restrictive measures and without high levels of vaccination, Canada could have experienced substantially higher numbers of infections and hospitalizations and almost a million deaths.
Keywords: COVID-19; Canada; counterfactual; modelling; public health measures; vaccination.
. 2022 Jul 7;48(7-8):292-302.
doi: 10.14745/ccdr.v48i78a01. Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada: What could have happened?
Nicholas H Ogden[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Patricia Turgeon[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Aamir Fazil[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Julia Clark[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Vanessa Gabriele-Rivet[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Theresa Tam[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Victoria Ng[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 37334255
- PMCID: PMC10275398
- DOI: 10.14745/ccdr.v48i78a01
This study illustrates what may have happened, in terms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections, hospitalizations and deaths in Canada, had public health measures not been used to control the COVID-19 epidemic, and had restrictions been lifted with low levels of vaccination, or no vaccination, of the Canadian population. The timeline of the epidemic in Canada, and the public health interventions used to control the epidemic, are reviewed. Comparisons against outcomes in other countries and counterfactual modelling illustrate the relative success of control of the epidemic in Canada. Together, these observations show that without the use of restrictive measures and without high levels of vaccination, Canada could have experienced substantially higher numbers of infections and hospitalizations and almost a million deaths.
Keywords: COVID-19; Canada; counterfactual; modelling; public health measures; vaccination.