Cfr ~ 0.07% ?

[gsgs]

http://www.bmj.com/cgi/section_pdf/339/aug18_1/b3317.pdf

Heath Kelly, thinks it likely, that the Australian
death toll will be under 1000, compared with 1500-3000 per year for seasonal flu.
In Victoria the peak to date has not been
worse than previous influenza peaks.
John Mathews,expects the outbreak will finish in
September in most parts of Australia with
total hospital admissions no more than 4000-5000.
----------------------------------

so assume just 7% infected as in New York, then I get a CFR of 0.07%

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Cfr ~ 0.07% ?

The difference in H1N1 vs seasonal may be in deaths of younger people.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Cfr ~ 0.07% ?

average age of deaths was 51 as compared with 84 for seasonal flu


I found this:

----------------------------

Influenza is responsible for 2500 deaths, 80 000 GP visits and 15 000 hospitalisations in Australia
each year in the risk groups. Ten percent of all workplace absenteeism is due to illness
associated with influenza. The estimated cost to the Australian Health Care System per year from
influenza is between $828 million and $884 million. These figures include the indirect cost of
days of work lost due to influenza

http://www.mackaydgp.com/documents/Mackay_well_workers_resource_booklet2008.pdf

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Cfr ~ 0.07% ?

Did you happen to notice in that brochure:
"Australian health care worker?s vaccination rates for influenza remain alarmingly low considering the ramifications of an influenza outbreak in most health care settings. The Department of Health and Ageing suggests that the vaccination rates for health care workers are as low as 20% ? 50%"
So, what is the likelihood that more will vaccinate for H1N1?

 

[wotan]

Re: Cfr ~ 0.07% ?

http://www.bmj.com/cgi/section_pdf/339/aug18_1/b3317.pdf

Heath Kelly, thinks it likely, that the Australian
death toll will be under 1000, compared with 1500-3000 per year for seasonal flu.
In Victoria the peak to date has not been
worse than previous influenza peaks.
John Mathews,expects the outbreak will finish in
September in most parts of Australia with
total hospital admissions no more than 4000-5000.
----------------------------------

so assume just 7% infected as in New York, then I get a CFR of 0.07%

You are estimating cases and assuming deaths are known, so your CFR is not valid. Use both absolutes or both estimates, but don't mix and match. Furthermore Australia does not have 1500-3000 deaths, they estimate that from pneumonia deaths. The number they actually know about is likely to be much lower.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Cfr ~ 0.07% ?

I'm not sure what you mean.

I'm quoting Heath Kelly, who compares the 1000 with the 1500-3000.
I assume he means total total deaths from flu including indirect deaths,
usually calculated from seasonal differences of deaths from all causes.
Else 1000 would be too high with 150 reported deaths actually
and ILI post-peak.