tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Chaos Solitons Fractals
. 2020 Sep;138:109971.
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109971. Epub 2020 Jun 5.
Coronavirus Pandemic: A Predictive Analysis of the Peak Outbreak Epidemic in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil
Salih Djilali[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Behzad Ghanbari[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
In this research, we are interested in predicting the epidemic peak outbreak of the Coronavirus in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil. Until now, there is no known safe treatment, hence the immunity system of the individual has a crucial role in recovering from this contagious disease. In general, the aged individuals probably have the highest rate of mortality due to COVID-19. It is well known that this immunity system can be affected by the age of the individual, so it is wise to consider an age-structured SEIR system to model Coronavirus transmission. For the COVID-19 epidemic, the individuals in the incubation stage are capable of infecting the susceptible individuals. All the mentioned points are regarded in building the responsible predictive mathematical model. The investigated model allows us to predict the spread of COID-19 in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil. The epidemic peak outbreak in these countries is considered, and the estimated time of the end of infection is regarded by the help of some numerical simulations. Further, the influence of the isolation of the infected persons on the spread of COVID-19 disease is investigated.
Keywords: Age-structured; Basic reproduction number; COVID-19; Computational epidemiology; Peak epidemic; SIR model.
. 2020 Sep;138:109971.
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109971. Epub 2020 Jun 5.
Coronavirus Pandemic: A Predictive Analysis of the Peak Outbreak Epidemic in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil
Salih Djilali[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Behzad Ghanbari[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32536762
- PMCID: PMC7274585
- DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109971
Abstract
In this research, we are interested in predicting the epidemic peak outbreak of the Coronavirus in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil. Until now, there is no known safe treatment, hence the immunity system of the individual has a crucial role in recovering from this contagious disease. In general, the aged individuals probably have the highest rate of mortality due to COVID-19. It is well known that this immunity system can be affected by the age of the individual, so it is wise to consider an age-structured SEIR system to model Coronavirus transmission. For the COVID-19 epidemic, the individuals in the incubation stage are capable of infecting the susceptible individuals. All the mentioned points are regarded in building the responsible predictive mathematical model. The investigated model allows us to predict the spread of COID-19 in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil. The epidemic peak outbreak in these countries is considered, and the estimated time of the end of infection is regarded by the help of some numerical simulations. Further, the influence of the isolation of the infected persons on the spread of COVID-19 disease is investigated.
Keywords: Age-structured; Basic reproduction number; COVID-19; Computational epidemiology; Peak epidemic; SIR model.