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CHINA - Expert: [Reg] flu epidemic unlikely to happen in China

Theresa42

New member
Hat-tip, treyfish!

Expert: Flu epidemic unlikely to happen in China

BEIJING, Jan. 15 (Xinhua) -- A Chinese flu expert said Monday that a large-scale flu epidemic was unlikely in China this winter and spring despite a spike in the number of flu sufferers.

Surveillance results showed that from December to January, the incidence of flu had seen a "rising trend", said Shu Yuelong with the National Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The virus types spread at the same time the year before were slightly different from this year, he said.

However, a flu epidemic was unlikely at this time of the year, as "the types and sub-types of flu virus had no significant mutation," he said in an online interview.

The incidence of flu this year was lower than the average of previous years, both in the north and the south. The "rising trend" was noticed in a comparison between the current period with October last year, Shu said.

Vaccination was an effective way to avoid flu and was proven to be safe, he said.

However, people who were allergic to eggs or had other severe allergies and women less than three months pregnant could not take the vaccination, he said.

Shu also told people to wear masks, get exercise, keep warm and form hygienic habits to prevent flu, and those who had flu should rest at home.

Parts of China, including Beijing, have seen rising cases of flu recently, with some outpatient hospitals receiving up to 5,000 people, sparking worries that a flu epidemic might happen this winter.

Shu said China started monitoring flu in the 1950s. The country joined the international flu monitoring network set up by the World Health Organization in 1981.

So far, the government had established 63 surveillance laboratories and 197 national-level flu surveillance hospitals, covering 31 provinces and regions.

Last year, the Ministry of Health issued an emergency response guidance for flu pandemic, and strengthened surveillance and timely reporting of local authorities.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-01/15/content_5609421.htm
 
Re: CHINA - Expert: [Reg] flu epidemic unlikely to happen in China

Related article, Google-translated from (simplified) Chinese:

Health experts prevention interview: Prepare for the peak is not yet a thing of the past
Source: Time: 2007-01-16 Shanxi Shanxi Evening News Network access forum

At 15, the Ministry of Health Disease Control and Prevention deputy director Xiao Dong floor, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and other flu prevention experts SHU Yue-long interview, said the Chinese government network, influenza activity is concentrated time in December to next February, it is impossible to accurately predict when influenza fall the public should not be taken lightly.

- Trends in the peak period of influenza is not yet a thing of the past

SHU Yue-long said that China's influenza monitoring network show that the influenza in Beijing, and other activities lower than in previous years. Although since the end of last year and January this year, northern and southern regions in China there is a clear trend of increasing influenza. But this is a relative term in September or October compared with the corresponding period last year, which is still relatively low.

For the public concern over the issue of whether influenza, SHU Yue-long said that the monitoring results indicate that China's influenza activities should be centralized in December to next Ersanyue applications, whether south or north, influenza enhance the possibility still exists. He said that according to monitoring results from the end of December 2006 to January 2007, in the south and north, influenza activity increased, but the trend has reached a peak when, the time to fall Will not be accurately predicted.

- Clearly not monitoring the type of virus mutation

According to the entire monitoring network show that the types and subtypes of influenza virus has been no marked variation but there will definitely be changes in the composition of the virus epidemic. The same period last year, mainly to the main A-1 and B viruses; this year, A-3 virus. Strains have some changes, but variations, with no significant changes in the past that there is no need to worry about the virus mutates be popular.

SHU Yue-long said that conventional disinfectants can kill the virus, the heating method can be used to kill the virus.

http://www.daynews.com.cn/sxwb/aban/15/97019.html
 
Re: CHINA - Expert: [Reg] flu epidemic unlikely to happen in China

would be interesting to know, whether Peiris sees
it the same way. He said recently: "pandemic extremely likely"
 
Re: CHINA - Expert: [Reg] flu epidemic unlikely to happen in China

Does A1= H1N1 and A3= H3N2?

The flu season started early in the US also, with H1N1 being dominant. The rate of increase also dropped last week in the US.

Does anybody know if we could see H3N2 re-emerge as the dominant strain and cause a 'double peak' in cases later this year?
 
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