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Coming soon, new strains of influenza
<!--// headline_end //--><!--// byline_start //-->Asanobu Sato and Masayuki Takata / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers
<!--// byline_end //--><!--// article_start //--><!-- google_ad_region_start=region1 -->With bird flu infections spreading worldwide, experts have criticized the Japanese government for not taking enough precautions against the possible outbreak of new strains of influenza.
In Indonesia, 103 people have died from bird flu and this number is expected to keep rising. The international community is increasingly concerned over the emergence of new strains of flu that could claim many victims.
Already this year, eight people have died from bird flu in Indonesia. But in Banten Province, Java Island, where 22 people have died from avian flu, free-range chickens and ducks can be seen along the narrow alleys of Tangerang, a major city in Banten. Though the Indonesian government has banned the keeping of domestic fowl in residential areas in the province and Jakarta, budget shortages and bureaucracy have hampered efforts to implement these measures effectively.
"Yes, I'm scared of bird flu, but you can make good money [keeping fowl]," said a 37-year-old woman who keeps a pair of chickens, which are free to run around. In December, a 47-year-old man living along the alley died from bird flu, but the health care center has only tried to disinfect the neighborhood twice.
Many experts have pointed out that infections are continuing to spread because the Indonesian government has failed to carry out a large-scale culling of fowl. While the Vietnamese government killed a large number of chickens in 2004 and 2005 and succeeded in preventing the further spread of the disease, the Indonesian government has failed to adopt the same measures, arguing that it had been unable to provide sufficient compensation measures.
Also, medical problems make the fatality rate among those infected with bird flu in the country significantly higher at 80 percent than the world average of 60 percent.
Some experts believe the number of fatalities from bird flu in Indonesia may actually be much higher than official statistics suggest.
Such information is essential for monitoring the emergence of new strains of influenza. The Indonesian government has also been reluctant to provide samples of the viruses found in patients, citing the likelihood that only developed countries' companies would profit from the resulting vaccines or medicines.
According to the World Health Organization, 226 people have died from the H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus since 2003. In China and Indonesia, four human-to-human infection cases have been reported, increasing concern in the international community of the possible outbreak of a new strain of influenza.
New strains of influenza emerge when the bird flu virus jumps to human, pigs or other animals and mutates to allow infections between humans. While there have been no reports of a new strain of flu, one could emerge at any time, because bird flu outbreaks have triggered outbreaks of new flu strains every few decades, such as the Spanish and Hong Kong strains of influenza in 1918 and 1968, respectively. The Spanish flu strain alone killed about 40 million people worldwide.
===
Expert opinion divided
Experts say an outbreak of a new influenza strain could be catastrophic because human beings would have no immunity against it. According to Harvard University, if the outbreak of a new strain were as widespread as the Spanish flu, it would cause about 62 million deaths.
The Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry estimates that as many as 25 million Japanese would require hospital treatment for a new strain of flu which would ultimately cause the deaths of about 640,000 people in Japan.
Harue Okada, a researcher at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, warns of the possibility of more casualties if the strong N5H1 strain mutates into a new strain of influenza.
"With many young people vulnerable to the virus, casualty rates could be unprecedented. As many as 2.1 million people could die," Okada said.
Osaka City University Prof. Yoshio Hirota disagrees.
"If pathogenicity remains high, infections will not spread so quickly, because patients won't be able to move around so much," Hirota said. "So if there was an outbreak of a new flu strain that had mutated from H5N1, the pathogenicity would have dropped considerably."
===
Quarantine for those infected
The government has drawn up a plan for possible outbreaks of new strains of influenza. On Tuesday, it submitted a bill to revise the Infectious Diseases Control Law and the Quarantine Law, which stipulate that people suspected of certain infections should be kept out of contact with the general public and examined.
Among the highly infectious diseases mentioned in the revised bill, new strains of influenza are mentioned alongside Ebola. The bill would authorize prefectural governments to demand that patients refrain from going outside and report on their health conditions.
According to the plan, if there was an outbreak of a new strain of influenza, the government would produce vaccine for the entire nation. But as it would take half a year to come up with a vaccine after analyzing samples of the virus strains, the government would initially keep a reserve of antiviral medicine for treating up to 30 million people to keep the outbreak under control, while also stockpiling enough vaccinations made from the currently pandemic H5N1 strain for 10 million people.
The government has decided that the stockpile of vaccines would be used in the first instance by medical, police and fire staff and other workers who have important social responsibilities.
However, the effectiveness of such stockpile vaccines is unclear, because a new strain of influenza might be completely different from the H5N1 virus.
"We shouldn't prepare enough vaccines for 130 million people before we have actually confirmed its effectiveness and safety," a Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry official said.
However, some countries, such as Switzerland, have already stockpiled enough vaccine for their entire populations.
"If the government doesn't prepare enough vaccines for all the public, it needs to explain why and to win the public's understanding, otherwise it's asking for trouble should an outbreak occur," said Masato Tashiro, chief of the Department of Virology III at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases.
Some companies have started planning their own measures, but most are lagging behind in efforts to address the potential risks.
"Even companies handling electricity, gas and other key utilities are still at an information gathering stage," said Hiroaki Maruya, director of Business Continuity Advancement Organization, a nonprofit corporation.
The ruling bloc has set up a team to examine all the related measures, and may review the government's plans.
The team is expected to consider strengthening the role of the Prime Minister's Office and utilizing the Self-Defense Forces.
"An incident that creates hundreds of thousands of victims would be a national emergency," said former Health, Labor and Welfare Minister Jiro Kawasaki, the team's chief. "The whole nation should take part in the debate and make sufficient preparations."
(<!--// date_start //-->Feb. 10, 2008<!--// date_end //-->):tiphat: http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/features/science/20080210TDY03304.htm
<!-- google_ad_region_end=region1 --><!--// article_end //-->
<!--// headline_end //--><!--// byline_start //-->Asanobu Sato and Masayuki Takata / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers
<!--// byline_end //--><!--// article_start //--><!-- google_ad_region_start=region1 -->With bird flu infections spreading worldwide, experts have criticized the Japanese government for not taking enough precautions against the possible outbreak of new strains of influenza.
In Indonesia, 103 people have died from bird flu and this number is expected to keep rising. The international community is increasingly concerned over the emergence of new strains of flu that could claim many victims.
Already this year, eight people have died from bird flu in Indonesia. But in Banten Province, Java Island, where 22 people have died from avian flu, free-range chickens and ducks can be seen along the narrow alleys of Tangerang, a major city in Banten. Though the Indonesian government has banned the keeping of domestic fowl in residential areas in the province and Jakarta, budget shortages and bureaucracy have hampered efforts to implement these measures effectively.
"Yes, I'm scared of bird flu, but you can make good money [keeping fowl]," said a 37-year-old woman who keeps a pair of chickens, which are free to run around. In December, a 47-year-old man living along the alley died from bird flu, but the health care center has only tried to disinfect the neighborhood twice.
Many experts have pointed out that infections are continuing to spread because the Indonesian government has failed to carry out a large-scale culling of fowl. While the Vietnamese government killed a large number of chickens in 2004 and 2005 and succeeded in preventing the further spread of the disease, the Indonesian government has failed to adopt the same measures, arguing that it had been unable to provide sufficient compensation measures.
Also, medical problems make the fatality rate among those infected with bird flu in the country significantly higher at 80 percent than the world average of 60 percent.
Some experts believe the number of fatalities from bird flu in Indonesia may actually be much higher than official statistics suggest.
Such information is essential for monitoring the emergence of new strains of influenza. The Indonesian government has also been reluctant to provide samples of the viruses found in patients, citing the likelihood that only developed countries' companies would profit from the resulting vaccines or medicines.
According to the World Health Organization, 226 people have died from the H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus since 2003. In China and Indonesia, four human-to-human infection cases have been reported, increasing concern in the international community of the possible outbreak of a new strain of influenza.
New strains of influenza emerge when the bird flu virus jumps to human, pigs or other animals and mutates to allow infections between humans. While there have been no reports of a new strain of flu, one could emerge at any time, because bird flu outbreaks have triggered outbreaks of new flu strains every few decades, such as the Spanish and Hong Kong strains of influenza in 1918 and 1968, respectively. The Spanish flu strain alone killed about 40 million people worldwide.
===
Expert opinion divided
Experts say an outbreak of a new influenza strain could be catastrophic because human beings would have no immunity against it. According to Harvard University, if the outbreak of a new strain were as widespread as the Spanish flu, it would cause about 62 million deaths.
The Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry estimates that as many as 25 million Japanese would require hospital treatment for a new strain of flu which would ultimately cause the deaths of about 640,000 people in Japan.
Harue Okada, a researcher at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, warns of the possibility of more casualties if the strong N5H1 strain mutates into a new strain of influenza.
"With many young people vulnerable to the virus, casualty rates could be unprecedented. As many as 2.1 million people could die," Okada said.
Osaka City University Prof. Yoshio Hirota disagrees.
"If pathogenicity remains high, infections will not spread so quickly, because patients won't be able to move around so much," Hirota said. "So if there was an outbreak of a new flu strain that had mutated from H5N1, the pathogenicity would have dropped considerably."
===
Quarantine for those infected
The government has drawn up a plan for possible outbreaks of new strains of influenza. On Tuesday, it submitted a bill to revise the Infectious Diseases Control Law and the Quarantine Law, which stipulate that people suspected of certain infections should be kept out of contact with the general public and examined.
Among the highly infectious diseases mentioned in the revised bill, new strains of influenza are mentioned alongside Ebola. The bill would authorize prefectural governments to demand that patients refrain from going outside and report on their health conditions.
According to the plan, if there was an outbreak of a new strain of influenza, the government would produce vaccine for the entire nation. But as it would take half a year to come up with a vaccine after analyzing samples of the virus strains, the government would initially keep a reserve of antiviral medicine for treating up to 30 million people to keep the outbreak under control, while also stockpiling enough vaccinations made from the currently pandemic H5N1 strain for 10 million people.
The government has decided that the stockpile of vaccines would be used in the first instance by medical, police and fire staff and other workers who have important social responsibilities.
However, the effectiveness of such stockpile vaccines is unclear, because a new strain of influenza might be completely different from the H5N1 virus.
"We shouldn't prepare enough vaccines for 130 million people before we have actually confirmed its effectiveness and safety," a Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry official said.
However, some countries, such as Switzerland, have already stockpiled enough vaccine for their entire populations.
"If the government doesn't prepare enough vaccines for all the public, it needs to explain why and to win the public's understanding, otherwise it's asking for trouble should an outbreak occur," said Masato Tashiro, chief of the Department of Virology III at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases.
Some companies have started planning their own measures, but most are lagging behind in efforts to address the potential risks.
"Even companies handling electricity, gas and other key utilities are still at an information gathering stage," said Hiroaki Maruya, director of Business Continuity Advancement Organization, a nonprofit corporation.
The ruling bloc has set up a team to examine all the related measures, and may review the government's plans.
The team is expected to consider strengthening the role of the Prime Minister's Office and utilizing the Self-Defense Forces.
"An incident that creates hundreds of thousands of victims would be a national emergency," said former Health, Labor and Welfare Minister Jiro Kawasaki, the team's chief. "The whole nation should take part in the debate and make sufficient preparations."
(<!--// date_start //-->Feb. 10, 2008<!--// date_end //-->):tiphat: http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/features/science/20080210TDY03304.htm
<!-- google_ad_region_end=region1 --><!--// article_end //-->