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Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

sbrooks

Well-known member
sorry gang love your site and appreciate your surveillance,
however until this virus hits 39,800 deaths, (traffic fatalities 2008)
I think you're all a little paranoid, me included. I thought 2009 h1n1 might track similar to 1918. thankfully so far not really happening.
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

I certainly hope you are right.
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

sorry gang love your site and appreciate your surveillance,
however until this virus hits 39,800 deaths, (traffic fatalities 2008)
I think you're all a little paranoid, me included. I thought 2009 h1n1 might track similar to 1918. thankfully so far not really happening.

If it's going to kill in these numbers in the USA it will most likely do it in October and November.
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

my apologies, I was crabby when I originally posted this. I think what you are doing here is crucial to all of us.

And Thanks for all who posted those mortality graphs from 1918, you are
right september was fairly benign compared to october november,
I may be way off course, too early to call a "fizzle"
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

Death is only one component to the A/H1N1 saga. The other is the long term impact on hospitalized survivors. Damaged lungs, neurological problems, chronic fatigue syndrome...
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

Most arrogant to come here and post that. Keep :reading:!! and pray like hell it doesn't kill someone you love.
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

It's all good sbrooks. I get crabby myself on an all-too-regular basis. Your post did make me think though. There are quite a lot of things that kill people in large numbers. If this flu turns out to be as deadly as 1918, then, to quote one of our members, "it's like watching a train wreck in slow motion, you're on the train, and there is no way to stop it or get off the train. There are things that could be done to mitigate the impacts, but nobody wants to take drastic measures (like school closings) out of fear that it will incite panic or impact the economy. By the time things would get bad enough to consider these measures, it will be too late to have any impact.

One of my biggest fears is that this fall wave will be high and steep, so to speak, so that for a few weeks the ERs and ICUs will be so overwhelmed that people who have survived so far will not make it because there are no vents available, no room in ICU, enough staff who aren't sick to care for serious cases, etc. By deciding wholesale not to close schools and limit large gatherings, we've made this scenario much more likely. I realize that everyone will likely be exposed at some point, but if it happened over a longer period of time, some people might survive who would not during the above scenario.

Unlike many other causes of death, we have a chance to do something about this, but it is a very compressed timeframe. It's like developing anti-drunk driving or anti-smoking campaigns crammed into a few weeks. If we knew that 38,000 people would die in car crashes over a period of a month, I'm sure there would be traffic control measures put into place to reduce the number of deaths. For the flu, we seem to just be sitting on our hands, crossing our fingers, and hoping it's not that bad.

As part of my work, I help manufacturing and mining facilities develop plans for various contingencies related to environmental concerns and safety. So many of my clients spend a lot of money to have a plan written and then stick it on a shelf to collect dust. They've met the regulatory requirement, but it's a "Plan" in name only. When there is a crisis, often the plan is then read for the first time. I believe that many governments and agencies have done the same thing with their pandemic flu plans.
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

Jimo, I agree wholeheartedly. My sister and I were talking about this very thing this morning due to a comment I had heard about the context of 'annual deaths' from 'other disorders' like asthma, diabetes, etc...

We discussed how this feels so different because it is out of our complete control. We can't see it coming...we just sit and wait and hope our family doesn't get sick, and when they do, we worry to death about them being that small percent who get severe illness. We can't see it coming - but many of those other things that kill people - while all sad and surely deserve support and compassion - still, those are things that we do have some control over....Being around some with diabetes doesn't affect MY chances of dying from it - and being someone with diabetes doesn't mean one can't be in fantastic control and live a fairly long life with little complication.

With this flu, it feels more like Russian Roulette. We have strep in our family now - but flu is approaching epidemic (if not already) in our community. My son has a pre-existing heart condition, all three of my kids are teens. I am terrified of them being exposed to the flu during a strep infection. But life has to go on, I can't lock them all down.
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

couldn't find a place to post this so move it to a better place if anyone wants to:

i just got home from a quick 5 day trip to oklahoma to see family...3 days in i started getting a sore throat (felt like drainage)...then, stopped up nose...slight headache(very slight, i get migraines and this was a very slight headache)...no fever, no throwing up or even feeling nausuas (sp)...i feel better today (still stopped up nose and a little coughing)...

the problem? i was sick (and didn't realize it) when i was around my daughter who is 5 months pregnant with a high risk pregnancy...

i called my doctor when i got home and she said that unless i had a fever, i didn't have h1n1...is that true?
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

i called my doctor when i got home and she said that unless i had a fever, i didn't have h1n1...is that true?

No it is a lie. Or more likely the doctor is just showing her ignorance.
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

I have considered the same comparison between car accidents and H1N1, and in the United States we have the medical infrastructure to back us up as we go through these intellectual exercises. However, very few people own cars in the Third World. Many don't even have access to clean water, much less medical care. Their death rate is higher. This is a website concerned with the entire world community.

Regarding Pandemic H1N1 and no fever. There have been various studies posted on Flutrackers, and our own CDC recognizes that there are confirmed cases without fever. It is postulated that people without fever are less contagious or not contagious. I have not seen a study confirming that, but went to the coast myself to help clear up post-flu pneumonia, bronchitis, and sinus infection. Antibiotics helped, but then added pleurisy at the beach. I did not have a fever with the flu itself. It was relatively mild. These are complications I have been dealing with for over 2 months. Since I was gone, I may have missed a study post that would answer the question of how infectious a person is while sick with flu without having a fever.
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

I still stand by initial claim, while this virus is creating havoc in places,
OVERALL has not caused the deaths predicted when compared to
other panedemics. However, it is hitting younger population and that alone may cause perception that this is 1918 II. My expectation is vax will provide
some immunity if this resurges in Jan-March 2010.
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

That is true sbrooks, and I hope it stays that way. Unfortunately we in the Northern hemisphere haven't actually had our flu season yet so its a somewhat false comparison. What I have noticed is a lag of about 6 weeks between first reported infection and first reported death as the flu spread around the world. In the US we have had a massive increase in the number of infections starting around the end of August six or seven weeks ago. My big fear right now is that that is going to translate into a much higher death rate starting with this week's report. I hope not.
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

In terms of the number of deaths, compared to 2008 traffic fatalities, the crash of an airliner with 400 passengers "fizzles". And yet it would make headlines worldwide. What is it that makes it newsworthy, and how might that relate to the flu pandemic?

First, there is the spectacular nature of the event. Just as a large municipal fireworks display is more noticeable than many of front lawn fireworks displays, the airliner crash grabs attention more than an equal number of deaths in separate auto accidents. As mentioned above, the flu pandemic can be like "looking at a train wreck in slow motion." It has the feel of a single event, unlike the deaths of many more people from cancer across the country.

Second, there is the unpredictability of the event. A certain number of automobile accident deaths are expected every day, and any particular one usually only make the local news, if that. An airliner crash is relatively much rarer, and so stands out. Similarly, a pandemic will occur perhaps two or three times in a person's lifetime. Added to this is the unpredictability of the course of the pandemic. One knows from the beginning that an airliner crash will kill only the people aboard and possibly a few on the ground, but the death toll of a flu pandemic cannot be known even in a rough way until the pandemic is over.

Third, there is the lessons to be learned from the event. With traffic accidents, this is an ongoing process. Traffic deaths in the US have not risen in 40 years, despite many more vehicles on the road. Developments in automobile design, improvements in street and highway design, and changes in traffic regulation have made auto travel much safer per mile driven. In the case of an airliner crash, the NTSB will launch an investigation that can last for years, to determine the cause of the crash and what can be done to prevent it happening again.. In the case of this flu pandemic, I pray that it will be studied to learn what mitigation actions can be effective, with one primary lesson that, with today's medicine, we cannot depend solely on the silver bullet of a vaccine.

Some of the information about the pandemic are only being gathered on sites such as FluTrackers. We offer a different viewpoint that is unconstrained by political or business considerations. This makes it worth the time and effort the members have put into reporting and observing the pandemic. Otherwise I would not be here.
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

Welcome to Flutrackers.

I don't come here just for influenza information. Flutrackers gathers and organizes information about quite a number of infectious diseases from all over the world. Also, there's quite a number of weather/climate-related information and news, and social and political news and commentary in quite an number of languages.

The people who contribute to this forum are extremely intelligent, articluate, and well-read; I am fairly well-educated and have some medical and scientific knowledge, but here I am without doubt one of the least knowledgeable people-it's humbling, frankly, and quite a learning opportunity.

Seems to me like the smartest folks here are stating there's a whole lot we don't know about H1N1, and we really cannot accurately predict what's going to happen over the next few months and years. I hope you're right, and H1N1 "fizzles."
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

I want to add a simple point to Chuck's post above. Influenza deaths are qualitatively different than fatalities from automobile accidents.

Prior to dying in an automobile accident an individual is not out spreading "accident" germs to cause others to die in an automobile accident later. Automobiles deaths, as unfortunate as they are, are random events and do not cause others to die in an accident.

On the other hand, an influenza death is always a result of a chain of infections. Breaking that chain of infection will save lives.
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

I still stand by initial claim, while this virus is creating havoc in places,
OVERALL has not caused the deaths predicted when compared to
other panedemics. However, it is hitting younger population and that alone may cause perception that this is 1918 II. My expectation is vax will provide
some immunity if this resurges in Jan-March 2010.
The show's not over yet in the northern hemisphere.

Wait until April 2010 - that's when we'll have accurate "annual flu deaths" statistics to use for comparison. Until then, I'm not comparing numbers.

We could look at the southern hemisphere end-of-season totals, but I think it's not the best comparison because the novel influenza didn't arrive "en masse" like regular seasonal and as it did in the current time period in the north. However, whenever Australia or New Zealand feel the swine flu season has ended and publishes numbers, I'll give some weight to that data.

.
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

traffic accidents, train wrecks, drive-by shootings, lightning, cancer, the list goes on... I don't see why adding one more thing makes anyone feel any better. We don't need this flu, we have enough to worry about. Every person it kills is one too many.
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

I'm starting to change my tune on this after delving deeper into what pandemics are capable of (thanks for all the info/links FT).

Originally after comparing commonalities of H1N1 1918 and H1N1 2009
I really thought with our current population (over 3 times what it was in
1918) that if the current pandemic was really going to be a massive emergency that things would have blown up by the end of October, mass fatalities..cities closed for weeks, etc. That really hadn't happened (thankfully!!), so I thought it wasn't going to be too bad, certainly not compared to traffic fatality numbers.

However, after hearing John Barrys presentation on the waves of the
last pandemic in the late 1800's, I wonder if this one is closer to that one.
He also brought up the point that so far all pandemics have one thing in common: there is usually a wave where morbidity hits 30-40 % of population.

And I don't think we have come CLOSE to that yet which makes me think the next few months may be rough......
 
Re: Compared to 2008 traffic fatalities h1n1 fizzles

I'm starting to change my tune on this after delving deeper into what pandemics are capable of (thanks for all the info/links FT).

Originally after comparing commonalities of H1N1 1918 and H1N1 2009
I really thought with our current population (over 3 times what it was in
1918) that if the current pandemic was really going to be a massive emergency that things would have blown up by the end of October, mass fatalities..cities closed for weeks, etc. That really hadn't happened (thankfully!!), so I thought it wasn't going to be too bad, certainly not compared to traffic fatality numbers.

However, after hearing John Barrys presentation on the waves of the
last pandemic in the late 1800's, I wonder if this one is closer to that one.
He also brought up the point that so far all pandemics have one thing in common: there is usually a wave where morbidity hits 30-40 % of population.

And I don't think we have come CLOSE to that yet which makes me think the next few months may be rough......

I also think that many lives have been saved by antivirals, ventilators, lung bypass machines, and now vaccines. So, this pandemic would have been much worse had those relatively recent developments in medicine not been available.
 
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