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Could migratory birds spread H7N9 around the world?

Re: Could migratory birds spread H7N9 around the world?

I was doing some reading on this yesterday and came across this article. It's worth a read as it gives some detail on what types of birds are found in different areas of the flyway during different seasons.

East Asia/Australasia Flyway at: xhttp://www.birdlife.org/datazone/userfiles/file/sowb/flyways/8_East_Asia_Australasia_Factsheet.pdf


A couple of other illustrations give the bigger picture.


aust_flyways.jpg




m7218enz.jpg
 
Re: Could migratory birds spread H7N9 around the world?

Rian Rossetti and Matthew WelchApril 26, 2013 06:00

How scared should we be of H7N9?

Q & A: Dr. Neil Fishman, for one, is cautiously optimistic.

GlobalPost talked to Dr. Neil Fishman, associate chief medical officer at the University of Pennsylvania Health System, about where to focus efforts to quell the outbreak, how the press is handling the news and just how likely it is that humans will one day transfer the virus to other humans.

GlobalPost: The current flu strain has been found in disparate areas of China. How does the wide spread of cases affect efforts to combat the virus?

Dr. Neil Fishman: There?s two critical things that are promising. One is that the virus has not been isolated in migratory birds. It?s only been found in chickens, ducks and pigeons in live poultry markets, so that makes it potentially easier to manage.

The other piece of promising news is that the closing of poultry markets appears to have led to a slowdown of the spread of disease. The focus needs to be on controlling the live poultry.
...

How likely is the international spread of H7N9?

Right now, less likely, because the virus has not been found in migratory birds, and there has not been human-to-human transmission. I will get concerned if the virus mutates and develops the ability for human-to-human transmission. Again, that has never occurred in the 10-plus years of the H5N1 outbreak, but we just need to follow it closely right now.

Full text:
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/health/130425/h7n9-bird-flu-avian-china-taiwan
 
Re: Could migratory birds spread H7N9 around the world?

Translation Google

Global spread of H7N9 avian influenza risk prediction

[FONT=&#23435]Hejian Kui, Chen Yao[/FONT]

1 Introduction

[FONT=&#23435]Since the[/FONT] 4 1 [FONT=&#23435]confirmed the first case of[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435], the country has hundreds of people infected with[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435].[/FONT]H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]virus infection is highly pathogenic, has confirmed that[/FONT] 23 [FONT=&#23435]people died of[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]Low pathogenic[/FONT]H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]virus infection in poultry, this feature makes the[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]in poultry widely disseminated. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]Although the CDC and the relevant departments to take effective measures to prevent [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]the spread of[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435],[/FONT] H7N9 and [FONT=&#23435]from the the earliest discovery Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, spread to Anhui, Jiangxi, Fujian, Beijing, Shandong, Henan and other places. [/FONT]H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]avian influenza has caused global concern about [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]whether[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]will spread to other countries in the world, which countries have a higher risk of infection,[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]will spread out the channels through which is a global concern.[/FONT]

[FONT=&#23435]The route of transmission of[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]avian influenza prevention and control of[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]is very important. If the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]route of transmission of the[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]virus is mainly spread by migratory birds carry on some important sites for migratory birds, then we frequent monitoring can know the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]spread of[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]For example, to monitor migratory birds in the USA and Alaska, can effectively assess the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]time and risk of[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]into North America. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]If the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]main route of transmission of the[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]virus as the trading of live poultry, customs monitoring of live poultry as [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]the primary task of [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]prevention and control of the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]spread of[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435].[/FONT]

[FONT=&#23435]To predict [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]the spread of[/FONT] H7N9 is [FONT=&#23435]not an easy thing, mainly because[/FONT] : 1 [FONT=&#23435], the number of infected poultry, the distribution is not clear. [/FONT]2 [FONT=&#23435], which migratory birds infected with[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]is not clear. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]Measures to be taken by countries in the prevention and control of avian influenza is unpredictable. Therefore, the current [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]forecast the spread [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]of[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]range and route of transmission can only be used as an assessment of the risks.[/FONT]

[FONT=&#23435]We study another avian influenza[/FONT] H5N1 [FONT=&#23435]transmission, coupled with the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]analysis of the data of the[/FONT] 140[FONT=&#23435]countries of the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]world in[/FONT] 2011 [FONT=&#23435]between the live animal, as well as migratory birds sorted out the number of ways. We predict the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]risk of the spread of[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]in European and Asian countries, as well as the possible route of transmission. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]This initial forecast help countries take to promote the prevention and control of[/FONT] H7N9.

2, results and discussion

[FONT=&#23435]Learned [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]from the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]outbreak of the[/FONT] H5N1 [FONT=&#23435]avian influenza[/FONT]

H5N1 [FONT=&#23435]and[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]avian influenza can be spread among poultry and migratory birds, have much in common. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]The origin of the[/FONT] H5N1 [FONT=&#23435]presumably in southern China, but there is no definitive evidence. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]Since the[/FONT] 1996-1997[FONT=&#23435]first discovered in the Hong Kong region, has spread to dozens of countries in Asia, Europe, and Africa.[/FONT]H5N1 [FONT=&#23435]and[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]originated from China, by studying the[/FONT] H5N1 [FONT=&#23435]spread from China to other countries, to help us to predict the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]route of transmission of the[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]By finishing the literature, we collected the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]time of the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]first outbreak of[/FONT] H5N1 in 52 [FONT=&#23435]countries [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]. We found that the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]time of the outbreak of[/FONT] H5N1 [FONT=&#23435]can be divided into three stages. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]In the fall of[/FONT] 2003 [FONT=&#23435]to[/FONT] 2004, [FONT=&#23435]the first stage [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]: this stage[/FONT] H5N1 [FONT=&#23435]outbreak concentrated in Southeast Asia, Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Vietnam and other places. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]These countries[/FONT][FONT=&#23435]along migratory routes [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]in East Asia[/FONT] - [FONT=&#23435]Australia. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]East Asia, Japan and South Korea also[/FONT] H5N1 [FONT=&#23435]infection. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]The second stage is from[/FONT] 7 [FONT=&#23435]May[/FONT] 2005 [FONT=&#23435]to[/FONT] 11 [FONT=&#23435]May[/FONT] 2005 [FONT=&#23435], this time[/FONT] H5N1 [FONT=&#23435]in Russia, Inner Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Croatia, Ukraine and other Central Asian and Eastern European countries. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]These countries in Central Asia along migratory routes. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]The third stage is from[/FONT] 2006 [FONT=&#23435]to[/FONT] 2006 [FONT=&#23435], when the[/FONT] H5N1 [FONT=&#23435]outbreak [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]in [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]more than[/FONT] 20[FONT=&#23435]countries in [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]Western Europe, Northern and Southern Europe [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]From here we can sum up the migration path of the spread of avian influenza and migratory birds are closely related and shows the characteristics of regionalization.[/FONT]
121946ssub5492299um97p.png

Figure 1 [FONT=&#23435], the global[/FONT] H5N1 [FONT=&#23435]outbreak timetable. The time of the outbreak in Thailand as a starting point[/FONT] ([FONT=&#23435]day[/FONT] 0 ) [FONT=&#23435], to calibration the time of the outbreak of the other countries. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]Uncertain [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]due to[/FONT] H5N1 [FONT=&#23435]in China, the origin of time, so do not use one of the outbreak of the Chinese as a starting point.[/FONT]

The H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]spread of forecast[/FONT]

[FONT=&#23435]In the case of countries not prohibited by the live animal,[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]may spread to Southeast Asia, Europe and other countries. According to the data of the migratory birds and live poultry, the risk of transmission of several major areas evaluated.[/FONT]
( [FONT=&#23435]a[/FONT] ) [FONT=&#23435]the spread of[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]will be roughly divided into[/FONT] three [FONT=&#23435]areas[/FONT]
<TABLE style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; EMPTY-CELLS: show; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" border=1 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 142px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=142>Zone



</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 142px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=142>Region



</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 142px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=142>Countries (eg)



</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 142px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=142>



</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 142px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=142>1



</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 142px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=142>Southeast Asia, East Asia



</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 142px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=142><TABLE style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; WORD-WRAP: break-word; EMPTY-CELLS: show; PADDING-TOP: 0px" class=" noBorderTable" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=81><TBODY style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=bottom width=81 noWrap>Thailand



</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=bottom width=81 noWrap>S Korea



</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=bottom width=81 noWrap>Indonesia



</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=bottom width=81 noWrap>Vietnam



</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=bottom width=81 noWrap>Japan



</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=bottom width=81 noWrap>Cambodia



</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=bottom width=81 noWrap>Laos



</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>




</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 142px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=142>



</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 142px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=142>2



</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 142px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=142>Russia, Central Asia, East Europe



</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 142px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=142><TABLE style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; WORD-WRAP: break-word; EMPTY-CELLS: show; PADDING-TOP: 0px" class=" noBorderTable" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=81><TBODY style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=bottom width=81 noWrap>Russia



</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=bottom width=81 noWrap>Kazakstan



</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=bottom width=81 noWrap>Mongolia



</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=bottom width=81 noWrap>Turkey



</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=bottom width=81 noWrap>Romania



</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>




</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 142px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=142>



</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 142px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=142>3



</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 142px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=142>North, South and West Europe, North Africa



</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 142px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=142><TABLE style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; WORD-WRAP: break-word; EMPTY-CELLS: show; PADDING-TOP: 0px" class=" noBorderTable" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=81><TBODY style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=bottom width=81 noWrap>Germany



</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=bottom width=81 noWrap>Sweden



</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=bottom width=81 noWrap>Austria



</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=bottom width=81 noWrap>Egypt



</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 81px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 17px; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=bottom width=81 noWrap>France



</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>




</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 142px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=142>



</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Zone 1 [FONT=&#23435]countries adjacent to China and East Asia[/FONT] - [FONT=&#23435]Australia migratory winter habitat. [/FONT]Zone 1 [FONT=&#23435]of the first countries spread of the[/FONT] H7N9 Zone 2 [FONT=&#23435]countries will be affected first in Russia, then[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]spread [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]through Russia to [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]other countries of the[/FONT] zone 2 [FONT=&#23435]. [/FONT]Zone 3 [FONT=&#23435]countries risk is relatively small, its mode of transmission from[/FONT] Zone 2
122004ax4ww9ehtff9xr6r.png

Figure 2, H7N9 [FONT=&#40657]risk assessment[/FONT]

[FONT=&#23435](B) interval spread spread by migratory birds, the region rely on trading[/FONT]
[FONT=&#23435]Avian influenza virus transmission main ways: [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]live animal[/FONT] ; 2, [FONT=&#23435]migratory birds;[/FONT] 3 [FONT=&#23435], and dissemination;[/FONT] 4 [FONT=&#23435], Wildfowl transactions;[/FONT]

[FONT=&#23435]For[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435], and spreads very limited; Wildfowl number of transactions is relatively small. Therefore, we mainly consider the trading of live poultry and migratory birds. By studying the[/FONT] 2011 [FONT=&#23435]United Nations data on international trade. We found no [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]records [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]to [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]export live poultry in[/FONT] zone 1 [FONT=&#23435]and[/FONT] zone 2 [FONT=&#23435]to[/FONT] zone 3 [FONT=&#23435]trace export. Therefore, the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]pathway [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]leading to the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]spread of[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]from China will not live poultry, but should mainly migratory birds. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]China and Southeast Asian countries bordering the boundary there may be some undocumented live animal will [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]have a certain impact [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]on [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]the spread of[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]At the same time[/FONT] zone 1 [FONT=&#23435]does not [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]export live poultry [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]to[/FONT] zone 2 [FONT=&#23435],[/FONT] zone 2 [FONT=&#23435]to[/FONT] zone 3 [FONT=&#23435]a small amount of live poultry. Taken together, the[/FONT]Zone 1 [FONT=&#23435]and[/FONT] Zone 2 is [FONT=&#23435]the most likely route of migratory birds, and[/FONT] Zone 3 [FONT=&#23435]will exist the risk of migratory birds and live poultry. We also noted that [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]within [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]each[/FONT] zone [FONT=&#23435]of live animal is very active trading volume.[/FONT][FONT=&#23435]Thus become the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]main route of transmission in [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]each[/FONT] zone [FONT=&#23435]countries within the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]live poultry trade fairs [/FONT][FONT=&#23435].[/FONT]
122017gj47dj9lzycdigcp.png

Figure 3 [FONT=&#40657]: The main countries of live poultry transactions. Abscissa is the country of export, the vertical axis is the importing country. [/FONT]Color bar [FONT=&#40657]represents the volume of transactions[/FONT] ( [FONT=&#40657]U.S. $[/FONT] ).

Table 1: [FONT=&#23435]Area of live poultry transaction amount (U.S. $)[/FONT]
<TABLE style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: 381px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; EMPTY-CELLS: show; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" border=1 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=381><TBODY style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(79,129,189) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; BORDER-TOP: rgb(79,129,189) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]Importer[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(79,129,189) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; BORDER-TOP: rgb(79,129,189) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]China[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(79,129,189) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; BORDER-TOP: rgb(79,129,189) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]Zone 1[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(79,129,189) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; BORDER-TOP: rgb(79,129,189) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]Zone 2[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(79,129,189) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 93px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; BORDER-TOP: rgb(79,129,189) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=93 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]Zone 3[/FONT]


​
</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(211,223,238); MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]China[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(211,223,238); MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]NA[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(211,223,238); MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]27[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(211,223,238); MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]0[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(211,223,238); MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 93px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=93 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]2589695[/FONT]


​
</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]Zone 1[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]0[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]2805417[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]6617[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 93px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=93 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]51167133[/FONT]


​
</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(211,223,238); MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]Zone 2[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(211,223,238); MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]0[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(211,223,238); MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]0[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(211,223,238); MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]9893416[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(211,223,238); MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 93px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=93 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]144055733[/FONT]


​
</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(79,129,189) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]Zone 3[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(79,129,189) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]0[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(79,129,189) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]0[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(79,129,189) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]330,667[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(79,129,189) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 93px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=93 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]2055836867[/FONT]


​
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>​

3, methods
[FONT=&#23435]Migratory data.[/FONT]
[FONT=&#23435]According to[/FONT] Kilpatrick et al [FONT=&#23435]([/FONT] PNAS, 103-19368, [FONT=&#23435]sorted out in[/FONT] 2006 [FONT=&#23435]), Asia, Europe and Africa migratory data to estimate the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]migration routes of of[/FONT] 54,081,501 [FONT=&#23435]migratory birds in the [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]period[/FONT] 2005-2006 [FONT=&#23435]. More migratory[/FONT]infectious bird days [FONT=&#23435]data is not attached.[/FONT]
[FONT=&#23435]Trade[/FONT]
[FONT=&#23435]Obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations[/FONT] 2011 [FONT=&#23435]trade data [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]between countries [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]. [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]Among them, live animal code[/FONT] H1-0105.

Table 2: the [FONT=&#23435]number of migratory birds in the continents[/FONT] (PNAS, 103-19368,2006)
<TABLE style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: 325px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; EMPTY-CELLS: show; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; PADDING-TOP: 0px" border=1 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=325><TBODY style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>Asia-N america


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 109px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=109 noWrap>N. America-S.America


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>Asia - Africa


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-TOP: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>Asia-Europe


​
</TD></TR><TR style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; HEIGHT: 18px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]2760[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 109px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=109 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]4085540[/FONT]


​
</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 7px; WIDTH: 72px; PADDING-RIGHT: 7px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; HEIGHT: 18px; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(0,0,0) 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" vAlign=top width=72 noWrap>[FONT=&#23435]5892800[/FONT]


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[FONT=&#23435]Disclaimer: This article is the author of a best efforts, the[/FONT] H7N9 [FONT=&#23435]made ​​risk assessment [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]based on current data [/FONT][FONT=&#23435]. Because of capacity constraints, the data is not comprehensive and may be a variety of changes, the assessment made ​​in this article may be distorted and inaccurate.[/FONT]


Digression: Nature published in the April 24, in a news: "Mapping the H7N9 avian flu outbreaks, which specifically describes the the aviation line on the global spread of H7N9, in order to predict other high-risk cities. According to our research, the nature of this exposition is incorrect, currently of H7N9 only limited human-to-human transmission, air transport is not the global spread of H7N9 main ways.
http://www.nature.com/news/mapping-the-h7n9-avian-flu-outbreaks-1.12863



<LABEL style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-WRAP: break-word; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); FONT-SIZE: 13px; PADDING-TOP: 0px">This article refers to the address: </LABEL>http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-514529-686019.html
 
Re: Could migratory birds spread H7N9 around the world?

One problem with comparing spread of H5N1 to H7N9 in wild migratory birds, is that H5N1 killed many birds, while H7N9 doesn't. While this may imply that H7N9 could spread more successfully in the migratory population, H7N9 also appears to not spread well even within confined bird populations - which would lead me to speculate that it will mostly stay out of migratory birds.

After watching how H5N1 spread, I believe that H7N9 is more likely to spread via humans - unless an "unknown" widespread vector is discovered.

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