Daily New Case Rate of 149/D Doubles WHO's 3685 Cases in 25 Days.

[franzpick]

Liberia's 70 new cases 9-6, S. Leone's 42 new cases 9-7, and Guinea's 37 new cases 9-8, totaling 149 cases/day, will DOUBLE WHO's last case total of 3685 in just 25 days:

http://www.ambafrance-gn.org/Ebola-point-de-situation-au-08

http://health.gov.sl/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Ebola-Update-September-7-2014.pdf

http://www.mohsw.gov.lr/documents/Liberia Ebola SitRep 114 Sept 6, 2014.pdf

Because of the effect of compounding, and if these recent 3 country case rate increases continue, the case changes that happened 5 days ago are old news.

 

[Sharky]

Re: Daily New Case Rate of 149/D Doubles WHO's 3685 Cases in 25 Days.

A 25 to 30 day doubling rate has been the trend for several months now -- and those numbers don't include unreported cases, of course.

 

[franzpick]

Re: Daily New Case Rate of 149/D Doubles WHO's 3685 Cases in 25 Days.

Any several month long doubling trend continuing for just several more months will soon be an African disaster, and a worldwide threat. I expect the past 5 day, 10 day and 15 day case rate increases or decreases to reveal whether or not the national health ministries involved, and the WHO, the MSF, the CDC and other organizations, have or have not gained control of an otherwise unfolding EVD pandemic.

 

[MHSC]

Re: Daily New Case Rate of 149/D Doubles WHO's 3685 Cases in 25 Days.

These are the numbers I have so far from WHO DON reports

Date - Cases/Dead

March 31 - 130/82
April 30 - 233/155
May 29 - 354/211
June 30 - 781/581
July 27 - 1323/729
August 26 - 3069/1841

If this rate continues we will have
September - 6,000
October - 12,000
November - 24,000
December - 50,000
January - 100,000
...
May - 1,600,000+

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Daily New Case Rate of 149/D Doubles WHO's 3685 Cases in 25 Days.

Franzpick, Ebola is not under control in West Africa and there is no doubt that, for the moment, the number of cases is increasing exponentially. So I am not clear what point you are trying to make in your posts, perhaps you could explain.

There are a number of factors that affect transmissions rates, not the least of which is that even a naive population will not have a 100% infection rate. Projecting the number of cases into the far distant future at these rates will result in every man, woman, and child in the whole world being infected with Ebola.

 

[MHSC]

Re: Daily New Case Rate of 149/D Doubles WHO's 3685 Cases in 25 Days.

If you are interested there are a few articles at the link concerning calculating potential spread both in and out of Africa.

http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/

 

[Chris]

Re: Daily New Case Rate of 149/D Doubles WHO's 3685 Cases in 25 Days.

The paper http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/...es-derived-with-a-simple-two-parameter-model/

referenced above discusses the IDEA model which this blog also covers in somewhat more understandable terms:


http://maimunamajumder.wordpress.com/2014/09/05/ebola-modeling-update/

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Daily New Case Rate of 149/D Doubles WHO's 3685 Cases in 25 Days.

The paper http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/...es-derived-with-a-simple-two-parameter-model/

referenced above discusses the IDEA model which this blog also covers in somewhat more understandable terms:

http://maimunamajumder.wordpress.com/2014/09/05/ebola-modeling-update/

A key value in these analyses is the reproductive number. I am not comfortable with an estimated R0 of 1.85 for the current Ebola epidemic in West Africa as proposed by Majumder.

While the data are not clear, the reproductive number of Patrick Sawyer, alone, in Nigeria is anywhere from 5.0 to 13.0.

 

[Chris]

Re: Daily New Case Rate of 149/D Doubles WHO's 3685 Cases in 25 Days.

It is an interesting observation Laidback Al.

The discussion of d though is what the model tries to capture as I understand it. Here, it appears, Nigeria has done very well.

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Daily New Case Rate of 149/D Doubles WHO's 3685 Cases in 25 Days.

It is an interesting observation Laidback Al.

The discussion of d though is what the model tries to capture as I understand it. Here, it appears, Nigeria has done very well.

As I understand it d is a measure of control or containment and as such is dependent on the R0. And yes, it appears Nigeria has managed to contain the outbreak and the R0 has decreased to below 1 in that country.

 

[kondor]

Re: Daily New Case Rate of 149/D Doubles WHO's 3685 Cases in 25 Days.

There is a problem with these figures however. Eleven weeks ago saw the first case in Monrovia. Monrovia has a population of one million, and makes up about 90% of the population of its county Montserrado which has a population of 1.1 million.

Now, after just 11 weeks since the capitols first case, we are seeing huge rates of contamination, with around 500 people dying in Montserrado in just the past 11 days.

This, together with news from WHO today in which they suggest taking a ride in a Taxi can be risky, implies that it is spreading much faster than doubling every 25 days in built up areas due to the mutual use of services, such as taxis, by the public.

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Daily New Case Rate of 149/D Doubles WHO's 3685 Cases in 25 Days.

Kondor makes an important point. There are varying rate of transmissions in different areas in different countries. Simple enumeration of increasing case counts by country masks these differential rates. Ebola control will have to occur on-the-ground at the most local level.