Gert van der Hoek
In Memoriam - Editor, Senior Moderator
Re: Dengue fever in Indonesia; July 2007 +
Re: Dengue fever in Indonesia; July 2007 +
Snip from Jakarta Post; dec 22 2008
DENGUE FEVER
As of November, Indonesia had recorded 101,646 cases of dengue fever this year, a surprise 32 percent decrease from 149,321 cases in the same period last year, according to the Health Ministry.
The incidence rate of the disease, which is typical for tropical urban areas, has thus also declined to about 44 cases per 100,000 people this year from 72 cases per 100,000 people in 2007, while the case fatality ratio has dropped slightly to 0.73 percent from 1 percent last year.
This decline, if it is correct and continues until the end of the year, will be the first drop after five consecutive years of rises in the number of cases. Overall, Indonesia has been experiencing an almost consistently rising trend in dengue fever infections since they were first recorded in 1968, when the case fatality ratio was still as high as 40 percent.
With the number of cases usually reaching its peak between January and March, it is likely the 2008 figure for dengue fever cases will indeed end up being lower than last year's.
The government claims that the drop in dengue fever cases this year is a consequence of its anticipative measures, which include improving epidemiological surveillance, improving the quality of dengue services management, intensifying vector control and providing quick responses to "extraordinary occurrence" cases.
But Pandu Riono of the IDI said the drop was very probably due to the cycle in the population growth of Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that is the species vector to dengue fever.
During the past 40 years, in about every decade showing a rising trend in cases, there has always been one year with a significant drop.
If this drop is indeed part of this cycle, then next year Indonesia will likely see another rise in infections.
As well as the disease's cyclic pattern, the threat of global warming could also boost the number of dengue fever cases in the future, as vector mosquitoes will be able to expand their territory to the highlands, which were once too cool for them to survive, but are now growing warmer.
There are no data yet to confirm this theory, but the spread of malaria into the Papuan highlands (where malaria had never previously been recorded) provides a good example of the possibility.
Former director general for disease control at the Health Ministry, I Nyoman Kandun, said early this year that the temperature increases could shorten the incubation period of the dengue virus in the bodies of both mosquitoes and humans. This could subsequently lead to more vector mosquitoes and, hence, more dengue fever cases.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2008/12/22/indonesia-labors-tackle-infections.html
Re: Dengue fever in Indonesia; July 2007 +
Snip from Jakarta Post; dec 22 2008
DENGUE FEVER
As of November, Indonesia had recorded 101,646 cases of dengue fever this year, a surprise 32 percent decrease from 149,321 cases in the same period last year, according to the Health Ministry.
The incidence rate of the disease, which is typical for tropical urban areas, has thus also declined to about 44 cases per 100,000 people this year from 72 cases per 100,000 people in 2007, while the case fatality ratio has dropped slightly to 0.73 percent from 1 percent last year.
This decline, if it is correct and continues until the end of the year, will be the first drop after five consecutive years of rises in the number of cases. Overall, Indonesia has been experiencing an almost consistently rising trend in dengue fever infections since they were first recorded in 1968, when the case fatality ratio was still as high as 40 percent.
With the number of cases usually reaching its peak between January and March, it is likely the 2008 figure for dengue fever cases will indeed end up being lower than last year's.
The government claims that the drop in dengue fever cases this year is a consequence of its anticipative measures, which include improving epidemiological surveillance, improving the quality of dengue services management, intensifying vector control and providing quick responses to "extraordinary occurrence" cases.
But Pandu Riono of the IDI said the drop was very probably due to the cycle in the population growth of Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that is the species vector to dengue fever.
During the past 40 years, in about every decade showing a rising trend in cases, there has always been one year with a significant drop.
If this drop is indeed part of this cycle, then next year Indonesia will likely see another rise in infections.
As well as the disease's cyclic pattern, the threat of global warming could also boost the number of dengue fever cases in the future, as vector mosquitoes will be able to expand their territory to the highlands, which were once too cool for them to survive, but are now growing warmer.
There are no data yet to confirm this theory, but the spread of malaria into the Papuan highlands (where malaria had never previously been recorded) provides a good example of the possibility.
Former director general for disease control at the Health Ministry, I Nyoman Kandun, said early this year that the temperature increases could shorten the incubation period of the dengue virus in the bodies of both mosquitoes and humans. This could subsequently lead to more vector mosquitoes and, hence, more dengue fever cases.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2008/12/22/indonesia-labors-tackle-infections.html