tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2020 Apr 22:1-9. doi: 10.1017/dmp.2020.115. [Epub ahead of print]
Outbreak trends of CoronaVirus (COVID-19) in India: A Prediction.
Tiwari S[SUP]1[/SUP], Kumar S[SUP]1[/SUP], Guleria K[SUP]2[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
OBJECTIVE:
The objective of this paper is to prepare the government and citizens of India to take or implement the control measures proactively to reduce the impact of COVID-19.
METHOD:
In this work, the COVID-19 outbreak in India has been predicted based on the pattern of China using a machine learning approach. The model is built to predict the number of confirmed cases, recovered cases, and death cases based on the data available between 22nd Jan 2020 to 3rd Apr 2020. The time series forecasting method is used for prediction models.
RESULT:
The COVID-19 effects are predicted to be at peak between the third and fourth weeks of Apr 2020 in India. This outbreak is predicted to be controlled around the end of May 2020. The total number of predicted confirmed cases of COVID-19 might reach around 68978, and the numbers of deaths due to COVID-19 are predicted to be 1557 around 25th Apr 2020 in India. If this outbreak is not controlled by the end of May 2020, then India will face a severe shortage of hospitals, and it will make this outbreak even worse.
KEYWORDS:
COVID-19 Epidemic trend; COVID-19 Outbreak in India; Machine Learning; Predictive Model
PMID:32317044DOI:10.1017/dmp.2020.115
Outbreak trends of CoronaVirus (COVID-19) in India: A Prediction.
Tiwari S[SUP]1[/SUP], Kumar S[SUP]1[/SUP], Guleria K[SUP]2[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
OBJECTIVE:
The objective of this paper is to prepare the government and citizens of India to take or implement the control measures proactively to reduce the impact of COVID-19.
METHOD:
In this work, the COVID-19 outbreak in India has been predicted based on the pattern of China using a machine learning approach. The model is built to predict the number of confirmed cases, recovered cases, and death cases based on the data available between 22nd Jan 2020 to 3rd Apr 2020. The time series forecasting method is used for prediction models.
RESULT:
The COVID-19 effects are predicted to be at peak between the third and fourth weeks of Apr 2020 in India. This outbreak is predicted to be controlled around the end of May 2020. The total number of predicted confirmed cases of COVID-19 might reach around 68978, and the numbers of deaths due to COVID-19 are predicted to be 1557 around 25th Apr 2020 in India. If this outbreak is not controlled by the end of May 2020, then India will face a severe shortage of hospitals, and it will make this outbreak even worse.
KEYWORDS:
COVID-19 Epidemic trend; COVID-19 Outbreak in India; Machine Learning; Predictive Model
PMID:32317044DOI:10.1017/dmp.2020.115