Discussion - MMWR 2013-14 Flu Season Wk 44-02 (10 new pediatric deaths, 20 total)

[mixin]

Wk 02, ending Jan 11

Influenza-associated pediatric mortality: 10 = MA (1), KY (1), TN (3), LA (1), OK (1), TX (3)

Powassan virus disease: 0
Vancomycin-intermediate Staphylococcus aureus: 1 = Fl (1)
Vancomycin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus: 0
Babesiosis: 0
Dengue Fever: 0
Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever: 0

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/pdf/wk/mm6302md.pdf

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Discussion - MMWR 2013-14 Flu Season Wk 44-02 (10 new pediatric deaths, 20 total)

I made a copy of this post to this forum because I wondered how the season-to-date of 20 total pediatric deaths compares to last year. I think the number of pediatric deaths so far is much less this (2013-2014) season even though we see 10 this week (which probably includes some from the holidays)?

 

[mixin]

Re: Discussion - MMWR 2013-14 Flu Season Wk 44-02 (10 new pediatric deaths, 20 total)

Much less:

Current week, cum 2014, 5yr wkly avg,
Influenza-associated pediatric mortality: 10, 11, 3,

2013: 164
2012: 52
2011,: 118
2010: 61
2009: 358

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/pdf/wk/mm6302md.pdf

 

[JimO]

Re: Discussion - MMWR 2013-14 Flu Season Wk 44-02 (10 new pediatric deaths, 20 total)

My count is at 32 for the season. The total for last year was 179, by my count, compared with 171 from the MMWRs. Here are the data from the CDC for the entire 2012-13 season:

2012-40 - 1
2012-41 - 0
2012-42 - 0
2012-43 - 2
2012-44 - 0
2012-45 - 0
2012-46 - 3
2012-47 - 2
2012-48 - 7
2012-49 - 1
2012-50 - 10
2012-51 - 5
2012-52 - 6
2013-01 - 14
2013-02 - 10
2013-03 - 8
2013-04 - 17
2013-05 - 9
2013-06 - 9
2013-07 - 8
2013-08 - 10
2013-09 - 7
2013-10 - 3
2013-11 - 8
2013-12 - 7
2013-13 - 5
2013-14 - 5
2013-15 - 3
2013-16 - 4
2013-17 - 2
2013-18 - 0
2013-19 - 0
2013-20 - 1
2013-21 - 1
2013-22 - 0
2013-23 - 0
2013-24 - 0
2013-25 - 0
2013-26 - 0
2013-27 - 1
2013-28 - 0
2013-29 - 0
2013-30 - 0
2013-31 - 0
2013-32 - 0
2013-33 - 1
2013-34 - 0
2013-35 - 0
2013-36 - 0
2013-37 - 0
2013-38 - 0
2013-39 - 1

 

[JimO]

Re: Discussion - MMWR 2013-14 Flu Season Wk 44-02 (10 new pediatric deaths, 20 total)

There were 61 pediatric deaths from Week 40 through Week 2 last season.

 

[mixin]

Re: Discussion - MMWR 2013-14 Flu Season Wk 44-02 (10 new pediatric deaths, 20 total)

So you're saying that the MMWR numbers run from week 1 to wk 52 instead of the previous 52 weeks?

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Discussion - MMWR 2013-14 Flu Season Wk 44-02 (10 new pediatric deaths, 20 total)

Jim - So even using your higher number (than the gov) for the deaths so far this season we are at 50% less.

I wonder why:

1) More children getting flu shot this year, and/or

2) H1N1pdm09 has genetically changed enough to affect children less, and/or

3) Many older children contracted H1N1pdm09 as infants/toddlers and now have an innate immunity, and/or

4) Faulty reporting this year, and/or.....

??

 

[JimO]

Re: Discussion - MMWR 2013-14 Flu Season Wk 44-02 (10 new pediatric deaths, 20 total)

Yes, that's how they count them. But, they are reported in the week in which the death occurred, which is sometimes delayed weeks or months.

For example, there were six deaths reported in the MMWRs for Weeks 42, 44, and 45 of this season, of which five occurred in the 2012-13 season and are not included in the 20 deaths attributed to the 2013-14 season.

So you're saying that the MMWR numbers run from week 1 to wk 52 instead of the previous 52 weeks?

 

[JimO]

Re: Discussion - MMWR 2013-14 Flu Season Wk 44-02 (10 new pediatric deaths, 20 total)

It could be any or all of those reasons; however, as I indicated above, there is often a significant delay between the occurance of a death and it getting reported to the CDC. Since they count it for the week during which the death occurred, and not when it was reported, the current tally is always an underestimate. I also find that my tally is an underestimate because many states do not release pediatric death data to the public, so the information only shows up after it is reported to the CDC and published in an MMWR.

Another reason I believe that the numbers are lower is that the season started a couple of weeks earlier last season based on key indicator such as &ILI, %P&I deaths, and rates of hospitalizations for pediatric patients. It seems that last season a lot of kids got sick before the holidays while this season it appears that it is just starting to impact kids in school.

I hope it doesn't get any worse, but I fear we'll see a comparable number of pediatric deaths.

Jim - So even using your higher number (than the gov) for the deaths so far this season we are at 50% less.

I wonder why:

1) More children getting flu shot this year, and/or

2) H1N1pdm09 has genetically changed enough to affect children less, and/or

3) Many older children contracted H1N1pdm09 as infants/toddlers and now have an innate immunity, and/or

4) Faulty reporting this year, and/or.....

??