Discussion - New Coronavirus Article Discrepancies

[jflorida]

Coronavirus patient dies in Birmingham hospital [ http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/feb/19/coronavirus-patient-dies-birmingham-hospital ]

The patient, the fourth in the UK and the third in one family to be identified with the respiratory illness caused by the newly identified coronavirus, became the first British fatality in this country when they died in the hospital's critical care unit on Sunday.

The hospital said in a statement: "The patient was already an outpatient ? undergoing treatment for a long-term, complex unrelated health condition. The patient was immuno-compromised and is believed to have contracted the virus from a relative who is being treated for the condition in a Manchester hospital."

 

[alert]

Re: Coronavirus Infects Third U.K. Family Member - Confirmed by WHO

Re: Coronavirus Infects Third U.K. Family Member - Confirmed by WHO

Coronavirus patient dies in Birmingham hospital [ http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/feb/19/coronavirus-patient-dies-birmingham-hospital ]

The patient, the fourth in the UK and the third in one family to be identified with the respiratory illness caused by the newly identified coronavirus, became the first British fatality in this country when they died in the hospital's critical care unit on Sunday.

The hospital said in a statement: "The patient was already an outpatient … undergoing treatment for a long-term, complex unrelated health condition. The patient was immuno-compromised and is believed to have contracted the virus from a relative who is being treated for the condition in a Manchester hospital."

The case that has died is case #11, a male who is the son of case #10, the man being treated in Manchester. Case #12 is a young female, who was never hospitalized, and had contact with case #10 as well (but not case #11). The case described in this thread is #12.

We don't know for sure, but case #12 might be the younger sister or niece of the fatality.

 

[jflorida]

Re: Coronavirus Infects Third U.K. Family Member - Confirmed by WHO

Re: Coronavirus Infects Third U.K. Family Member - Confirmed by WHO

hmmm. Oh ok sorry.

"the third in one family to be identified with the respiratory illness "

Must have made me believe somehow it was the third in one family to be identified with the respiratory illness.

So this [12] must be the one "being cared for at home" and the son who died was the second identified case in a family of three.

The infected man, who travelled back to London on January 28 after a trip to Saudi Arabia, unwittingly passed it on to his son, who has since died from the bug.

His father is still being treated in hospital in Manchester and a third family member has also been struck down and is being cared for at home in the West Midlands. [ http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/sars-search-plane-passengers-who-1721146 ]

- note the Mirror's graphic, simple arithmetic is obviously not so simple? Wonder why they decided to call this "SARS" ?

 

[alert]

Re: Discussion - New Coronavirus Article Discrepancies

Yes, cases are not necessarily deaths; at least 4 of the 12 cases appear to have fully recovered. That article is sloppy reporting.

The same appears with the nomenclature "SARS"; as of now, there are enough differences between this coronavirus and SARS that the WHO feels it is inappropriate to call this SARS. If something were to change (say, if the cluster of unexplained respiratory illness in an ICU in Argentina were due to this virus, indicating wider circulation), it is conceivable that decision might be reversed.

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: Discussion - New Coronavirus Article Discrepancies

They're playing with fire.

Another SARS-like international crisis may result in the complete collapse of the EU market with additional tens of million of unemployed!

SARS was a gross mistake by the WHO, and they never admitted the failure.

Why should NCOV be much worrying than KPC bacteria in ICUs?

Despite KPC NDM1 & Co. are spreading quickly back and forth with fatalities all around the world, WHO is again starting the SARS fanfare.

I am really disappointed to see again this mean of propaganda operational.

2003 was the Iraqi bloodmare year. This year what will be the country to see the next big one?

After a year of unnoticed spread of NCoV, now all over this great 'concern'.

Idiots!

 

[jflorida]

Re: Discussion - New Coronavirus Article Discrepancies

CNN recently posted a story that refers to it as "SARS like" on the SARS anniversary - which I guess is slightly better, they use present tense and SARS which is a bit confusing. Its a interesting review from a media and reporting standpoint as well; I had forgotten how very tense the SARS situation was in much of Asia and the Pacific area.


Hong Kong and SARS: A city under siege [ http://www.cnn.com/2013/02/21/world/asia/hong-kong-sars-anniversary/ ]

The death of a sixth patient from a SARS-like virus comes on the week that marks 10 years since the deadly outbreak hit Hong Kong.

my colleagues and I had been reporting on the outbreak for weeks from our homes. Like many businesses at the height of the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, employees were encouraged to stay away from the office, or any other places where large numbers of people gather.

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: Discussion - New Coronavirus Article Discrepancies

The reality of these health 'scare' events is that a lot of people have to suffer much more for the economic fall-out than the disease itself.

How many people died for SARS: 800? How many people died in Iraqi bloodmare (for example): 25, 50, 100, 500,000?

What's the usefulness of a supernational health agency (-agencies) if it does not care of the consequences of its deliberations?

During the course of twelve months this NCOV (if it is really 'new') how many countries has reached? Probably, a global proportion spread.

Unnoticed.

During the last 30 years many health 'scares' appeared on the scene:

--- 1981: HIV/AIDS. Some leading scientists (for example P. Piot) suggested that the epidemic curve would have followed an exponential function (ie: double the number of cases yearly). At this time, half of humankind would have been infected if the dire predictions would be true.

--- 1991/92: India plague;

--- 1995: The Great Return of Ebola; (again, P. Piot predicted 'an immune response in humans through vaccines is impossibile for these viruses');

--- 1997: first birdflu outbreak in HK.

--- 2003: SARS 'pandemic'... Unfortunately for the WHO and other agencies during the fall the real panzootic of H5N1 started in south Asia.

--- 2006: H5N1 reached European Region.

--- In the meantime, a lot of drugs resistant bacteria emerged and spread through hospitals around the world causing thousands of deaths.

--- 2013: H5N1 cluster of cases in Cambodia. Situation unclear in Egypt.

--- 2013: SARS-like NCOV on media outlets first pages...

 

[curiosity]

Re: Discussion - New Coronavirus Article Discrepancies

Just read this. Good book. Remarkable that so much has happened in the last thirty years - and what we might see in the future.

'Health Scares' seem to be so common these days that most will eventually ignore them - even a bonafide threat.

I like the optimistic idea that this virus has been around already and the technology has just recently picked it up.

Why isn't there more concern for the antibiotic resistant bacterial strains? Is it because there is no way to contain them or stop their progressive proliferation in the environment?

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: Discussion - New Coronavirus Article Discrepancies

Some bugs were really simple to contain but for a number of reasons the quest became nearly impossible.

The paramount example is the HIV. It is a STI and thus perfectly controllable through individual sexual hygiene measures (such as use of condoms and a less promiscuity).

Notwithstanding, it was much more simple to build a scapegoat (gay community or african people) instead to teach to adolescent to use condoms in the early stage of pandemic ('80-'85).

Fear, sensationalization, exploitation, call for tough measure against 'spreaders', insanity (=homosexuality) were the ingredients of an usual newspaper at the time.

Inequalities in health care access and illiteracy made the HIV pandemic a real nightmare in some regions, such as subsaharian Africa and - today - in eastern European nations.

Antibiotics resistant bacteria are killing people en masse. Every day people are under medical examination, with invasive procedures (endoscopy), surgery etc. that make them susceptible of colonization and subsequent possible infection.

Lack of hygiene and antibiotics stewardship in many hospital even in affluent countries are the best colture terrain for these organism.

It is not said that NCOV will not cause a severe epidemic around the world, but with so many emergencies under the radar, why the WHO decided to 'downgrade' some and promote this new?

I am very concerned that the reason behind this deliberation has little to do with the new pathogen for itself.

 

[jeffrey]

Re: Discussion - New Coronavirus Article Discrepancies

Hope this is in right area. I emailed CDC about Corona Virus and this is what they sent me today. Not much info, probably what we all know

Thank you for your inquiry to CDC-INFO. In response to your request for information on the Coronavirus, we are pleased to provide you with the following information.

CDC continues to work closely with the World Health Organization (WHO) and other partners to better understand the public health risk presented by recently reported cases of novel coronavirus infections. The new virus is a beta coronavirus. It is different from other coronaviruses that have been found in people before. The novel coronavirus probably came from an animal.

From April 2012 to February 2013, a total of 12 people from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Kingdom were confirmed to have an infection caused by the novel coronavirus.

?Saudi Arabia: 5 people; 3 of them died
?Qatar: 2 people; both survived
?Jordan: 2 people; both died
?UK: 3 people; 1 died, 1 receiving treatment, 1 recovered

So far, there are no reports of anyone in U.S. getting infected and sick with the novel coronavirus.

For updates on this situation, visit www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/
or
World Health Organization
WHO Novel coronavirus infection in the United Kingdom
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2012_09_23/en/index.html

 

[alert]

Re: Discussion - New Coronavirus Article Discrepancies

Just to clarify any confusion in the numbers, the CDC is attributing the first UK case to Qatar, so they are reporting 2 cases from Qatar and 3 from the UK, versus the 1 from Qatar/Germany and 4 from the UK in the WHO and ECDC reports.

Notably, the CDC is reporting the first Uk ex Qatar case as recovered, whereas the HPA reports indicate he is still hospitalized.

 

[jeffrey]

Re: Discussion - New Coronavirus Article Discrepancies

So if CDC monitoring so closely, how do they not get the information correct? Thank you for clarifying!

 

[alert]

Re: Discussion - New Coronavirus Article Discrepancies

So if CDC monitoring so closely, how do they not get the information correct? Thank you for clarifying!

It is not an issue of getting information incorrect; it is just a different way of counting. The two cases that the CDC is counting as Qatar probably did get infected in Qatar, but they are/were treated in Germany and the UK. Both cases appear to have been medically transferred after hospitalization in Qatar.

The CDC is counting cases based on the location of initial illness; the HPA is counting cases based on their current/final location of treatment.

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Discussion - New Coronavirus Article Discrepancies

Thanks alert.

These fine differences can often be a cause of what appears to be differential reporting. Another example is the reporting of human H5N1 cases by WHO. WHO always uses the onset date when tabulating cases. So for an individual who contracts H5N1 in late December and dies in January the following year, the case is counted as a death in the previous year, while media reports will count that death as the first one of the new year.

 

[jeffrey]

Re: Discussion - New Coronavirus Article Discrepancies

Thank you Al and Alert for the explanation!:tiphat: